Since it looks likely that Pavlik will be next for Ward and Ward is constantly given comparison to Hopkins I decided to watch this fight to look for some comparison and what to expect Pavlik was 26 fresh off back to back victories over Taylor, Hopkins at 43 lost 3 of his last 4 and his lone win was a turn back the clocks like fight with Tarver, in the lead up Pavlik's team said he would be first to KO Hopkins, Hopkins said Pavlik is in for a surprise that he has been lied to From the first round onward except for one round the 6th i believe Hopkins was busier, the analysts frequently discussed the rule of thumb for tackling the aged Hopkins was be busy, Hopkins was letting his hands go more, a bad sign But why was Hopkins busier? Because Pavlik was unable to get anything going on offense. His jab was not landing frequently, he seldom landed a right, his left hook was not there, and i cannot remember a single memorable uppercut Hopkins did 2 things right, first he circled to his right, this removed Kelly's right hand completely, in doing so he did erase the jab and as Steward pointed out Kelly would be forced to rely more on the left hook to carry the day, his left hook was not sharp in this fight either. There were times where Hopkins moved out of the way and Kelly literally threw punches to where Hopkins was and did not turn. Second, Hopkins held strategically, when they got in close Hopkins held and would even sneak in some shots on the hip when the ref was on the other side, this bothered Kelly For Hopkins on the offensive side he was landing in combination very frequently, this was something he obviously wasnt doing at this time in his career. In several moments of the fight Pavlik appeared dazed and at the verge to go down. One of these was in the second when Hopkins threw a left that started like a jab but finished as a hook. In round 7 or 8 Hopkins released combos down the middle consisting of many straight rights while doing a Leonard like spinning with his hand All in all Hopkins was victorious for the fact that he was quicker, used his feet better, picked where and when the fight was fought, and won the exchanges and held when needed Pavlik's short comings....well his style didnt mesh to Hopkins very well, First he is a straight lines fighter. Basically Hopkins would circle well or even at times come toward him, he never ever backed straight up. Second, Pavlik is a jab fighter he is like one of those insects with a feeler he needs to land the jab or make the presence of the jab to get his other punches going. He could not get the jab, the double jab, or the feinting with the jab and well he just looked lost Pavlik has never been a dynamic fighter, I think for his recent ESPN bout Teddy Atlas said he cant transition from defense to offense and I personally have not seen him put on a great counter punching display. His offense is great when he throws and sits down and he has great defense when its on his mind and he covers up. He has 2 halves of his brain that work great but never at the same time This said how does Ward fit into the equation? Is Ward Bernard Hopkins? Well I dont know if he is as savy and as comfortable in the ring or as polished with the same level of depth but his style i can tell you succeeds in the same ways Hopkins beat Pavlik Ward: Takes away great jabs, he did it vs Kessler and Froch Creates angles and uses spectacular foot work Can fight inside and knows when and how to clinch effectively Has the faster feet and hands His left hook is very dangerous, Hopkins had the left hook landing hard vs Pavlik Pavlik's case....well Kelly is now on the other side of 30, Ward is now that invincible young gun with some nice scalps on his resume vs a "past it" ex champ who has the book written on how to beat him, Can Pavlik pull the Hopkins on Ward I think Kelly and Garcia ought to sit down and honestly observe the footage of the Hopkins fight and sit down and watch Ward dismantle two guys who i feel are like Pavlik, Kessler and Froch What Kelly has to do...Ward may not be able to do exactly what Hopkins was able to do. Kelly was higher in weight and Bernard at that stage may be better than current Ward. Anyway not to belabor that but Pavlik will have to use the jab. Like Loew said he needs to double it and feint with it. He needs to throw the jab even if he may get countered because he must be busy and he must make Ward fight and think about Kelly's punches Kelly did not really have a left hook vs Bernard. With Garcia he in my opinion has made good improvements so now if Ward circles right Kelly can hook and maybe force Ward to circle left and to the right hand Kelly is gonna have to do what he did not do in Atlantic city in 2008, he will have to go a little reckless take his chances like he didnt do vs Hopkins, I know its impossible to let your hands go when your gonna miss and gonna get hit but Kelly has to make this a fight. Froch down the stretch got busy and made it rough and tough and could land and looked stronger at the end What does Kelly have left....This is a big factor, we dont really know, the Hopkins fight really did a number on Pavlik. Since then he lost his title and has been inactive and changed trainers and went to rehab and changed his location and system and mentality He also has not faced a world class opponent since Martinez. He also didnt dazzle vs Rosinsky. Pavlik in recent fights has proved his punching is there his offense is there but he isnt producing the knockouts. I'd have to say all roads lead to a Ward victory, I bet Kelly will be hungry and show up determined, maybe I'll catch **** for my opinion but i think Kelly may do better than he did vs Bernard and might be about as tough as Froch was probably take a couple of rounds
Thats a well thought out post you made, but one you forgot or left out was that Pavlik had bronchitis when he fought Hopkins.
For Kelly's sake, I hope Ward and Hunter STUDY THE **** out of the Hopkins fight, and rely on it absolutely. That is one of the things that can give KP a really good shot at cracking Ward's dodgy chin. The chances of Pavlik fighting Ward with a right elbow injury and severe bronchitis are very, very, slim. (The Thomas Hauser article is still available on 2nds Out for those who want the facts.) As far as the post, I stopped reading when I hit the first factual inaccuracy. In other words, about the 3rd sentence.
This will be like the Hopkins fight, only far worse for Kelly. And that should tell you something. :yep
Good observations. I thought I hadn't seen Ward take away an strong orthodox jab, but it was clearly missing from the majority of the Kesslar and Froch fights, and Pavlik's jab at this point is about as good as theirs was. The lateral movement was a huge factor, neutralizing Pavlik's straight-lined offense, as was the inside work and combinations. The difference here I think will be Ward's focus. Hopkins controlled the ring laterally and then roughed him up on the inside in spots. With Andre it will be the opposite; Andre will muscle him and spend the bulk of his time against his chest, and counter him at range when going in or circling out. I think Kelly will do slightly better than he did against Bernard, since he's been working on his inside fighting and Ward will make it so that his punches hit gloves rather than air more often than in the Hopkins fight...but I also think Pavlik will ultimately end up worse, getting stopped on cuts in 9 or 10. Ward is going to press the action towards the end with his speed in a way Hopkins didn't.
Another reason Pavlik might do better against Ward than he did against Hopkins is because the size fact. I think Pavlik probably comes in a little bit bigger than Ward. Now, that in itself doesn't matter, I still expect Ward to win by wide decision, HOWEVER, in the Hopkins fight Hopkins was MUCH bigger than Pavlik. So not only was Pavlik being schooled in every way imaginable, he was also getting beaten up by a bigger guy.
I think Kelly needs to throw some straight rights, not set up from the jab and hooks. Ward isn't going to be around after the jab. Hit him on the way in or out, without setting it up with the jab.
Ward has accomplished so much in a relatively short time that it would be very hard to pick against him no matter who the opponent is at 168-175, and he presents some serious stylistic problems for almost any stand-up-orthodox boxer/puncher. However, there is no such thing as a perfect fighter. EVERYBODY has flaws. I've watched a lot of Ward fights lately, and looked hard for his flaws. I agree with you about throwing lead rights, but only up to a point. I think we need to go a step or two beyond that. Ward looks really susceptible to a quick 3-2. Better yet, a 3-2-1. Sometimes it seems like people are half blind when they watch Pavlik. A 3-2 is one of his best weapons, and he also does well with a 3-2-1 and a 3-1. Overall, I tend to disagree with people about the jab. Pavlik and Garcia are not working on the things KP is already good at, so Pav has left his jab more or less on the shelf during most rounds of his recent fights. However, recent work out video makes it clear the KP's jab is just as good as it ever was, and that is better than any other Ward opponent.
It will be interesting to see what happens if Kelly lands a clean right hand on Andre's chin. If Andre Ward ever gets hurt in this fight, he'll be in serious ****. He can't afford to have a Darnell Boone moment. Pavlik is one hell of a finisher. I think Pavlik's people need to develop that hook and perhaps work a right uppercut into their gameplan. Actually, Pavlik can't afford to approach this fight the way he did against Hopkins. And I doubt him and Garcia will either. Ward is going to try to smother any work Pavlik even thinks about doing on the inside. This will be interesting. Got a feeling somebody is going to win decisively either way.
Hopkins was 43 and gave Pavlik hell from the opening bell to the end, some rounds actually looked like Hopkins could have stopped him(especially the 12th) but had to back off to avoid exhaustion. Ward is a young, highly skilled and great fighter who's a stylistic nightmare for Pavlik. Ward would box his ears off and pummel him from pillar to post, it would look like Ward is working on a heavybag. Pavlik's only chance is to land a lucky punch or to take the pummeling long enough to see Ward tire.
Pavlik, like Concreto, needs to settle to land solid shots. He can't and won't land meaningful punches when Ward will constantly move.
BooRadley. Your nuthuggery is admirable as nowadays fans run away as soon as the first loss hits. Happened with Pavlik. I never thought much of Pavlik. I have always been vocal about it specially when ESB was going crazy calling him one of the best MWs ever. I always saw him being too basic for the elite. His size like Jr. helps him alot but now he is at the bigger weight classes and is in a level playing field. His power is still there which will always help save him at some point but Ward stops Pavlik. Ward is not even that big of a puncher but he is just so much better that Pavlik will get very frustrated and caught with shots he does not see coming.
