Making sense of the Pacquiao KO and combatting over-reactions

There's been many comments and many wild claims following Pacquiao being knocked out last week, and I think it's time now that the dust has settled to examine things a little more clearly.

Having considered the issue from all sides, I think there has been an understandably over-zealous reaction. Put simply, I do not view this result as signalling the end of Manny Pacquiao's career as a top pound-for-pound performer, nor does it signal a conclusive end of his prolonged war with Juan Manuel Marquez, as I do believe the two will soon meet again.

Pacquiao now has 2 wins, 1 draw (which should have been a win but for one judge's scoring error), and 1 loss. Now Marquez does hold easily the most decisive win of the series, but what we basically have here is three razor-close fights and one fight where a perfect punch ended what was a thrilling contest - that was really turning in Pacquiao's favour before the aforementioned punch.


Marquez having Pacquiao's number

People have been quick to use terms like Marquez is Pacquiao's "bogeyman", his "stylistic nightmare", that Marquez "has Pacquiao's number", and so on, but I think this is totally inaccurate. Basically, people believe that Marquez has been unfairly overlooked as a star of this generation by comparison to Pacquiao, and this fuels this overcompensation about the disparity between the two in the ring (when in reality, Pacquiao's resume and accomplishments far outstrip those of his Mexican rival anyway).

For me, to say someone "has someone's number" does not mean that they have three razor-close fights out of four including two losses. That simply isn't what that term means at all.

A perfect example of what people say Marquez is to Pacquiao is what Vernon Forrest was for Shane Mosley. Forrest "had Shane's number" 100% because Forrest fought him twice and beat him very clearly and convincingly twice - thus, the indication is that if the two fought ten times, Forrest would win every time, because he knew how to fight and defeat Shane, leaving not one judge out of six in any doubt across their two bouts. At the time of their first fight, Shane Mosley was the world pound-for-pound number 1, an undefeated two-weight world champion with a resounding victory over Oscar De La Hoya on his record. He was an overwhelming favourite to beat Vernon, yet couldn't manage it once in two attempts. This is the dictionary definition of one fighter "having another's number", and it does not apply to Pacquiao and Marquez at all.



The fight itself

Is there anyone out there who doesn't agree that Pacquiao performed significantly better in this fight than in their previous encounter? I was exhilirated by Manny's change in strategy, and in his performance in those fifth and sixth rounds as he hunted the finish. Had he not got so wild going for the KO and left himself so very, very open for a killshot, can anyone seriously say he had no chance of winning that fight? I could be wrong because you never know how these fights are going to turn from one round to the next, but from the 5th and 6th rounds it looked to me like Manny was fresher, faster, and more aggressive than he has been in a long time, while Marquez looked a bit outgunned and worn down.

Now that Manny has finally had the realization that Marquez can hurt him rammed home to him (and I'll not even comment on this thread about how Marquez was suddenly able to drop and KO him now after being unable to inflict any damage in the previous 36 toe-to-toe rounds), he will be forced to be more defensively aware rather than lunging forward and/or dropping his hands, so a fifth fight is certainly a very live dog.



The Knockout

Manny Pacquiao has an iron chin. This has been proven time and again whilst absorbing flush shots from heavy hitters (and much heavier men) like Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito. This has also been proven time and again when he has often hurt the best fighters of his generation (Morales, Barrera, Mosley, and until last weekend, Marquez) while never really being hurt by them in return.

I think the big difference here (other than JMM's new hulking physique and presumably increased punching power) was that Manny did not have his feet planted at the time the punch landed. As anyone who has ever did any form of combat sports will tell you, if you have your feet planted when a strike lands, your whole body absorbs it. When you get hit on the chin without your feet landed, the affected area takes the full force of the blow. It makes a big difference. ANY human being could be knocked out by a massive punch like that when they don't have their feet planted on the ground. For this reason, I do not see the KO as meaning that Pacquiao has (or will have) punch resistance issues.

We have seen Marquez demonstrate increasing power over the last few years, and the way that Manny leapt forward with his hands nowhere, in addition to the way JMM delivered the punch... this can happen to anyone. It's just human physiology that you can be knocked out. Roberto Duran was iced by Thomas Hearns... and went on to show a granite chin years later in a shootout with the much larger Iran Barkley, and win.



Manny's Mentality

I think a fighter's mentality has a hell of a lot to do with how they cope with and come back from a bad knockout. If you remember when Pac knocked out Ricky Hatton, Ricky was unable to speak to the press immediately after the fight. I think Hatton couldn't cope with the KO mentally, he retreated into his shell, didn't come straight back to fight, and by all accounts it really affected him psychologically. When he did eventually come back, he was knocked out again by a fighter he would surely have beaten with relative ease not three years earlier. Ricky is a good example for another reason too; when he won his world title he displayed a very strong chin in a war with noted powerpuncher Kostya Tszyu. After Floyd Mayweather chipped away at that chin for 10 rounds and finally finished Ricky, I think Hatton's punch resistance looked noticeably poorer in the Juan Lazcano fight. Hatton was always a macho fighter, and I think being stopped and being knocked out weakened him mentally. If you contrast this with Manny's reaction to the Marquez KO, he does not seem affected by it at all. He was smiling, respectful and articulate after the fight, and seems completely focused on getting back to winning ways very soon. Although he would be wise to be more defensively aware now, his mental state tells me he will not suddenly become a less resilient fighter, as Hatton looked in his fights with Lazcano and Fedchenko. Manny appears to have reacted to the KO in the best way possible - he realizes it can happen to anyone, and has made him more grimly determined to prove he is the better man.



Conclusion

Manny Pacquiao's performance in his most recent fight up until the time of the knockout suggests that he is far from over. The quality that has made him an all-time great with title wins in eight divisions is still there. Of course he is no longer as powerful and relentless as he was in his 2008-2012 absolute peak, but anyone totally counting him out of victory in a fifth Marquez fight may come to regret this.

War Manny. Beat up Bradley and then get Arum on the job of yet another amazing fight with your nemesis Dinamita. :bbb