How Indepth Are Your Predictions and How ACCURATE Are They?

People criticize me for over-thinking things in my thread but I think I just pay attention to detail. Sometimes I over-hype an underdog in terms of attention to his style because people overlook certain subtleties.

My predictions are right or wrong as often as the next guy, but I'm pretty good at detailing the method in which either man will win, the question is how to weigh the determinate factors against one another.

Sometimes it's more basic than that. If one fighter can dominate on the inside or outside, and its obvious whether they can keep it there most of the fight, then you have a solid pick.

 

I'm usually going by analysis on who wins but picking the way each pick wins is just up to my hunch.

My best calls were Spinks-Mayorga MD, Pac late TKO Barrera/Cotto.

 

some people over-analyze

 

I think some fights require depth like Canelo vs Trout which to me is a pick em of the most difficult to pick and requires deep analysis

Lately I have been pretty good picking them right

last weekend I said pose fest if Donaire cannot find a hole early or score a KO and Picked Rigo

I was right about Alvarado boxing and moving intelligently and winning a decision from the outside and not obliging Rios's fight

I however was dead wrong when I said BHops legs were gone and that Cloud would stop him in 10

 

how accurate are you?

 

I find things like this the hardest to predict. With Floyd lately, I know a prime version or near prime version of Floyd can do this or that, but idk where a 36 year old Floyd is at.
I can analyze what Guerrero and Floyd can both do and this should be an easy fight for Floyd, but idk where he's at.

Hopkins fights are hard to predict sometimes because of that also, but I've gotten all of his last few fights right Pascal twice, Dawson and Cloud

 

Accurate enough to triple my V-cash in a few months. I post in a couple sports betting forums where my picks are up a bit under 10 units in about 6 months, so I can't claim to be a wizard, but I can beat the books.

My full write ups can go over 1,000 words, but part of that's just long windedness. For me, what you are really looking for is a clear advantage that is either 1) almost insurmountable or 2) not obvious. It's less productive to focus on every slight advantage or detail of their styles. One reason for that in my case, is that I just don't have the in depth technical knowledge of someone who has seriously participated in the sport. But I think people who do have that knowledge can get bogged down in it, and overlook the simple stuff, like work rate.

 

I'm fairly detailed and always highlight footwork. My predictions are right about as often as the average knowledgable poster, but I definitely have my misses.

 

I read your thread on Canelo Trout. Was really good. Did you make any other prediction threads for this year?

 

thanks man, I was going over the details for that fight for a couple of months and finally decided to write them down :good

and the only other one I had from this year was Rigo/Doanire.

 

If im really interested in match up, ill study it, watch their fights, break it down and usually give an accurate prediction. If i feel strongly about it, ill post a thread. My brother is a huge boxing fan and he feels that i get it right often. We surprisingly disagree on a lot of things but we find common ground.and so its nice to be able to talk boxing in depth with someone in person. Lately im on a losing streak but called them to be good pick em fights.

 

How in-depth my predictions are depends on how well I know the fighters. I know Donaire quite well, but not much about Rigo, and picked Donaire based on general consensus, tbh. I'm right more often than I'm wrong w/o making risky picks. One pick I'm proud of is when I said JMM would still trouble Pacquiao in their 3rd fight. Not many people were buying into that. Here's a few more

I thought FMJ would beat Cotto Gatti style.
Maidana would damn near kill Morales.
Martinez would win II vs Paul by KO.
Haye would show some balls against Wlad :roll:

Just to name a few

 

My predictions now follow the format:

__________ Result/Round _________ because _________________________.

I've really lost a lot of interest in going back and rewatching fights to make in depth predictions/analyses. My correct pick rate has probably declined as a result.