Notes and Prediction on Kessler vs. Froch II

Making my bets for this week and this is the one that was tough to choose. Here's a copy/paste of my notes on it, posted for your reading pleasure, advisement in making your picks, and (most importantly) to bring up if the fight actually plays out this way and pretend never happened if it doesn't.

Froch/Kessler II
-Kessler knocks everybody out. Froch doesn’t get knocked out.
-Froch won’t look for a stoppage unless there’s an opportunity. Kessler looks to set up the stoppage.
-First fight is negligible due to Kessler’s eye and new coach. Also Froch’s issues in fightweek.
-Froch can win via: cuts stoppage, British stoppage, robbery, or decision.
-Kessler can win via: brutal knockout after repeated knockdowns, bodyshot, or decision.
-Draw is highly likely due to Britishness. Froch could lose 116-112 and pull off a draw.
-Kessler has had world class sparring (Groves and Cleverly). Cleverly in particular is good work, as he's a bigger, faster version of Froch in many ways.

It’s taken greatness to beat Kessler. Froch has been outboxed by the likes of Taylor, Johnson (in spots), and Dirrell. Both guys down only once.

Technical Aspects:
Jab/Range: This should always be Kessler’s go-to. His jab is legit. Froch has a good jab as well, but it’s much more…negate-able. Froch can’t really take away Kessler’s jab in a long-range fight. Kessler uses the jab to score and set up power shots, while Froch uses it as a distraction and to buy time and gauge distance for the right. He also likes to leave it extended to steer the opponent away.

Right hand: Both guys throw a hard right and can land it out of nowhere. Froch doesn’t tend to have anything for you after the right, since he swings the door shut with his leg and is too close afterward. Kessler can swing the door shut with his hook since he maintains balance. Also, Kessler can vary the right as an overhand and especially to the body. It’s very hard to tell if he’s going upstairs or downstairs with it. Froch was seriously troubled by the right to the body last time and said as much during the fight. Kessler can use this punch to keep Froch’s left hand at home more, since it’s risky to put out a jab when your opponent looks for this shot.

Hook: Froch does not have one. Kessler does, and it’s a ****in hammer. He tends to underuse it, which may serve to disguise it. Furthermore, all the time with Montoya will have Kessler throwing the hook downstairs to complement the overhand right. This might be the shot that does Froch in. Kessler will have to get in range to throw it, and Froch tends to meet you halfway and tie up when you get that close.

Angles: Kessler takes the angle and punches you from either side, then goes out or back to the other side. Froch typically takes the easy angle over to his right and tries to hit over your left shoulder, which is usually ineffective and ugly. It does keep him safe and trouble the opponent though.

Chin: This is all Froch. His strength is that even though he’s easy to clock out of nowhere, he genuinely doesn’t care. Kessler can be staggered much more easily, though he doesn’t go down (unless you throw him like Green). The problem for him is that this loses him rounds. You really have to pummel Froch to make the point that you’re winning rounds.

Kessler strategy:
-Jab. Double jab. Notice how Froch ALWAYS leans to his right to slip and jab. Feint the double jab with a stutter-step and blast him down with a right hand over his shoulder. Follow with the left uppercut/hook.
-Counter the jab with the basic catch/counter, and frequently drop down for the right hand to the body under his jab. Once he adjusts to this, keep doing it to keep his jab at home, but when the opportunity is there come over the top with the right and follow with the hook.
-Use an in-out rhythm with some side-to-side head movement, and move laterally off your attacks (stuff like 1-1-2-3-pivot left-2 or 2-3-pivot right-3). Sit out after your attacks. While doing the pivots, get low. Win the range game by feinting and jabbing in, unload a head-body combo, then sit out to the angle and hit him if he follows.
-When he rushes in, turn him onto the ropes and smash him with the overhand and left hook downstairs.
-As the fight progresses, cut the ring off and keep him on the ropes while maintaining enough space to throw the right.
-Avoid being tied up at all.

Froch strategy:
-Keep coiled up and keep your distance. Jab with him, but circle to a side when he tries to rush in. Frustrate him. Jab the body and come up to the head. Jab the body and throw the right at the head. Jab the head, jab the body, throw the right. When he gets close enough, launch the right at him, swing the right leg around, and tie him up. Get him used to the straight right and right overhand, then when he adjusts begin throwing an uppercut to the head and body.
-When he’s tied up, blast the back of his head as much as you can get away with and throw him around like a rag doll.
-Let him waste his energy feinting and bouncing on the outside, you stay calm.
-If you hit him and he staggers, throw the 1-2-1-2-1-2 but KEEP YOUR RANGE and don’t smother your work.
-If you get caught on the ropes, tie him up before he lands or turn him and throw the right.
-Any time you get him on the ropes, throw both hands to the body. Doesn’t matter how sloppy, just throw them and hope one gets through. Worst case, you tire out his arms and look like you’re in control.
-At all times be aware that Kessler is trying to counterpunch, so anticipate the punch and counter his counter.
-Don’t get brave early on and take two to give one. In round 8-12, start just taking it to him and running him down no matter how much you have to take in return (unless you’ve been dominant).


Prediction: Kessler wins something like 116-112 in a fight similar to the first and ends up with a draw. I can also see Kessler stopping Froch if he brings his hook. I can’t see any one shot doing it, but possibly a round late in the fight Kessler drops him with a combination or accumulation. A body punch is also very possible. Can’t see Froch legitimately winning this one unless he manages to cut Kessler.

My money will be on Kessler, under 11.5 (to hedge the Kessler bet in the event of a cut stoppage), and the draw. Froch decision is the most likely outcome as far as odds go, but I see Kessler beating him to the extent where a Froch decision would be too much of a blatant robbery so they'd give him a draw.

 

Same night. Easy work.

 

I would agree with this if the first fight hadn't happened. Plus I think Froch's resume is a little overrated. It's better than almost anyone in boxing, but it's still overrated.

Bad fights:
Dirrell: Looked very poor for all of the fight, but it wasn't really a fight.
Taylor: Looked very poor for most of the fight.
Kessler: Didn't look exceptional in this fight, and Kessler had a major eye injury.
Johnson: He really didn't look great in this fight, and Johnson is OLD.
Ward: Looked pretty lost in there, but that happens to everyone.
Good fights:
Bute: Looked phenomenal...but I wonder who wouldn't. Big question mark over Bute.
Abraham: Looked great, but it's Abraham.
Pascal: Looked good for that stage in his career.
Mack: It's Yusaf ****ing Mack, so we expect knockouts here.

Of course Kessler hs fought a grand total of nobody aside from Calzaghe, Ward, and Froch. So if you go off the records, on paper it looks like Froch. But if you go off what we saw in the first fight and how they stack up technically, it looks like Kessler.

atsch My bad. I tend to block things involving Green from my memory. This can tie into my point though. Froch was dropped. Kessler was rocked and then thrown down. Still a legitimate knockdown, but slightly different. Froch can be dropped, Kessler can be rocked. (Also, "hurt bad" is a tad bit overstated. He was shook up, thrown down, and fine as soon as he got up.

 

I'm sticking with this prediction in light of the events this week. Froch is either consciously trying to play mind games or is maybe a little too wound up. Both looked strong at the weigh-in. 5 hours!