~ Joe CALZAGHE v. Bernard HOPKINS ~ ANALYSIS and PREDICTION Thread ~

As much as I would love to see B-Hop win this fight, I have a feeling that Calzaghe might pull it off.. So I say Calzaghe by unanimous decision.. hopefully hopkins will make me eat my words..

 

I see a tough distance fight here. Both guys have good chins, Hopkins is a clever boxer at nullifying his opponents, but in the end, I think Calzaghe will win a close decision due to his workrate primarily.

 

Decebal, I wish my writing was like you describe it to be, but somehow I doubt about my ability to transfer thought into written words - I'll try to write less and be more objective as many have already and rightfully mentioned that I write in circles. However, I do not think that my boxing perception is flawed as much.

No idealism in the house, baby. You say that I try to convince myself that the underdog is on top and according to analysis and form, I shouldn't?... So how can we explain about the guys that have made thousands of Vcash with Nate Campbell, Indio Quintana, Verno Phillips and other unprobable, unexpected winners? This is the nature of the Game and I am only a player or just one expectator.

Bernard Hopkins is not on the verge of being shot. He's actually tougher, stronger and most probably, wiser than Joe Calzaghe... I can expect Joe to run numbers on him and absorb what's coming back but there's always that double thinking that comes up on anybody's mind - what if Calzaghe turns out to be a rugged european fighter and does nothing more than brawl under the heat of the moment? I'm sure than Bernard Hopkins will not be watching him do it with his arms crossed like an outsider... Safe bet is Calzaghe by points but I feel he put too much pressure on himself - he's no Floyd Mayweather against Hatton or Hoya - expect him to be sleeping bad by now, getting disorganized at fight night and fighting by instinct. Hopkins may be the best underdog favoured to pull the upset in a long, long time.

 

We'll see...I'm thinking of a nice avatar for you to wear, if you aren't right, though...

 

This fight is a very difficult task for BHop. If BHop punches on his way in to a clinch, I believe that's where he can hurt Calz and probably give him a cut. Otherwise, its gonna be a very long night for him.

 

Don't be suprised if JC throws combinations coming out of the clinch to steal those messy rounds. JC is a crafty ****er inside himself and if it gets rough in there his flurries coming out could be the key to the fight.

 

I can let you know by fight time and the first round whether or not I will wear that avatar. But at the time being, I really don't see it coming... You will be surprised how misleading p4p ratings and odds can be or maybe you won't be surprised ... I expect Calzaghe to have a hard time to get physical with this guy, specially taking it to the body, so he will be throwing and throwing until something slows him down... And by then, something tells me Joe & Enzo won't accept it like you will or like Hatton & Graham did last December. I'm pretty sure that they'll do something that will make them look very bad if it doesn't go their way... Some sort of false controversy will come up and threads will rise up like weeds around here.

 

What do you mean? Please be more specific...I can't even guess what you're driving at...

 

The collective delusions this fight is bringing about are brilliant. Its like one massive LSD party. Rock on kids!

 

Actually this is quite a simple thought. Hopkins lost four times, 3 times for World titles and after his first Taylor loss, filled an appeal against judging to the Nevada Athletic Commission ( which was promptly denied) but he accepted it and rematched to lose again by close margins... Calzaghe never came close to losing and his father-trainer doesn't even consider scenarios wherein he would have to intervene for the health of his own son-trainee... Therefore, if they don't consider it beforehand, they are not gonna accept it afterwards - and consider if it gets sluggy and evenly-matched, Hopkins doing tricks and Calzaghe losing his temper - it's gonna be Calzaghe to hold and hit, possibly rabbit-punch like Bruno and Lewis did to each other, or like Calzaghe himself did against Salem ( lost a point for flagrant headbutting in the 11th)... Cortez takes one or two points away from the primary offender and what do you think Enzo does with defeat appearing on the horizon? What did Uli Wegner did with Urkal for the Cotto fight? What did the French promoter did to Hakkar in Philly? There's a boxing-cultural dyssynchrony between europeans and americans and the Old Continent's arrogance and persecution complex doesn't help it by any means... Exception made for Hatton who is really a hardman and has a do-or-die sort of mindset - he went right there to kill or to be killed by the sword, had no regrets whatsover b.c.that's just the nature of the game... Enzo will make a complete fool of himself in case, that's a guarantee.

 

:shock: :shock: :shock:

Dorf, are you suggesting Enzo might let his injured pride/sense of justice at being persecuted pull his boy out? Mate, you don't know the Calzaghes...He'd never do that to his boy. If things turn really bad, Enzo will just tell his boy to go out and finish the old man...NO WAY would he pull him out. Calzaghe would rather die than be pulled out...

I am shocked you could even suggest such a thing!!!:scaredas:

 

Don't get shocked because you know as well as I do that they won't be able to hear the judges cards in favour of Hopkins, fair or unfair, so he's gonna protest even before the fight ends... I don't know the Calzaghes but don't tell me they're die-hard warriors or that they are cool, calm and relaxed individuals... Enzo must be able to detect how things can go wrong and he'll need just a Cortez deduction by then ( or Cortez not deducting points from Hops) to really lose it. And he won't let Calzaghe hear the verdict... They will go back and claim that the fight didn't mean ****... I personally would like to see Calzaghe concede it but I'm sure he won't, unless Bernard does to him what Haye did to Macca, and Enzo Calzaghe was shouting against the Setanta interviewer " End of the Story, nothing else to say!" he said...

 

If they lose their calm and pull him out after what they've gone through in the Bika fight, I don't care if the ref is clearly on Hopkins' side and if the latter is getting away with cheating like hell - they would be stupid and deserve to lose!:deal

 

PrideOfWales - the case for Hopkins to win:

The build up to this fight has been different to any previous Calzaghe fight I can remember. The reasons are many: fighting outside of Europe for the first time, fighting at a different weight for the first time, fighting an older man for a change, none of his belts on the line etc etc... But the one aspect that could make all the difference is the intelligence (in the ring) of his opponent. I don't think anybody else has brought the ring smarts to the table that Hopkins will bring come Saturday week. Defensively, Hopkins is better than Calzaghe's best victims, much better. Hopkins counterpunching ability allied to this defence, in combination with Joe's sometimes ragged and open southpaw style make Calzaghe a sitting duck for a booming right hand straight on the button. Joe normally doesn't worry too much if he misses a few punches in his combinations (see the Manfredo finish - he missed them all), he simply continues with his unrelenting output... a barrage which has seen him "stop" his opponents by overwhelming them. Some call it conning the ref - regardless, it's always been Calzaghe's style and his intentions are to throw as many punches as possible, not to sit there and pick the right one.

In Las Vegas, it's supposed to be a proper fighters venue where fights don't get stopped until the very last moment and referees won't tolerate slapping. Let's hope Calzaghe refrains from the latter punching technique and sticks to what he did in the Kessler and Lacy fights.

Frank Warren has kept Calzaghe under close tabs for a lot of years, letting him fight boxers everyone knew he would beat. Only once in the whole time that Joe has been WBO champion has he started as underdog in a fight: against Jeff Lacy. If you look back at the reasons why Lacy was favourite, it was as much that Calzaghe looked awful in encounters with Evans Ashira (labouring, limping to a dull 12 round decision) and Kabary Salem (getting dropped and roughed up by nothing more than a journeyman) than Lacy was looking impressive. Everyone involved in the UK knew that Calzaghe looks his best against come forward, aggressive fighters when Joe is properly prepared. Joe was properly prepared and Lacy happened to be one paced. All very good. But see what happens when boxers leave the initiative to Calzaghe - David Starie, Jimenez, Robin Reid - Joe looks less than stellar... in fact, in those fights he looked distinctly average. He's fighting arguably the best boxer in the world at setting traps for boxers just like Calzaghe to barge straight into with wide eyed gumption. Joe has been floored twice before due to his open attacking style and being caught without seeing it coming. The intriguing thing is that this is what Hopkins is brilliant at - countering accurately with a single shot. Nobody has outboxed Joe or got anywhere near to establishing the upper hand with a jab so this will be a waste of time if Hopkins tries it. So he won't (find the compubox numbers for how many jabs Hopkins threw in the Wright (southpaw) fight). Hopkins wants JC to try and control the fight, he wants him to take risks, to dive in and launch flurries. Tactically, if Joe is unable to bully Hopkins by throwing him off balance, giving him a chance to land and crucially, if Hopkins isn't drawn into a slugging match (highly unlikely) then he has the perfect game to end Calzaghe's winning record.

A high paced fight results in a Calzaghe win, probably by stoppage. A slow paced fight as a result of Hopkins repeatedly landing the right hand when Joe gets too close takes away everything good about Calzaghe - the combinations, the handspeed, the power, the fitness and stamina. Then what we have left is a broken man with nothing left to do than desperately try to stop the contest - this is further bad news and could end in an embarrasing defeat.

Against boxers who like to press the action, I think Joe is pretty much as good as it gets. When he has to go looking for the action himself, as we've seen on a few occasions in the past, he looks like an average boxer. He can't open defences up, he only knows one way to box. Look at the number of aggressive boxers he's been in against compared to the ones who are less inclined to keep coming. I've been there when Cardiff was silent for round after round because he couldn't do anything to bring Rick Thornberry out of his shell. Rick Thornberry: who the **** is he right? The same man that got KO'd in his two previous losses before Calzaghe. Does that make Colin Wilson and Henry Wharton better than JC? Of course not, but it goes a long way in telling you how much he struggles with certain styles compared to others.

 

Joe Calzaghe at 18, presenting himself:

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...especially for Dorfmeister