Analysis: Canelo's tactics for Mayweather

The big fight is getting closer and I notice a lot of people here now not giving Canelo a chance, a different story from when before the fight was signed..

Anyway. It got me thinking about the fight and how it might play out. Everybody has a gameplan vs Mayweather but very little works. So what can Canelo do?

Positives for Canelo:

1. Mayweather hasn't looked at his best the two times he has fought above 147. It isn't his natural weight and Canelo will be the bigger man on the night, catchweight or not. What he mustn't do is rely on his size too much and think that will get him through.

2. Mayweather is getting older. Ok, he looked very good and young vs Guerrero. But there is a chance he will be on the decline somewhat: He is not getting any better at least. Canelo, improving, will probably be in the best shape of his life coming into this fight.

3. Canelo's win over Trout will give him confidence and experience. Trout, while not near Mayweather's level, was an awkward and slick opponent and a top guy at 154. Canelo was able to make him miss a lot and also land the more telling punches. Being the bigger man, his punches may have more intent on them than Mayweather's and impress the judges in the way they did in the Trout fight. Obviously, landing them enough will be the key.


Negatives for Canelo:

1. His opponent is the best in the business. He is undefeated, never knocked down and consistantly dominates on compubox stats.

2. Fighters in the past who have troubled Mayweather have done it with intellegent pressure and a good jab. Castillo, De La Hoya and Cotto, for example, applied pressure usually behind the jab, trapped Mayweather on the ropes and (on occasion) picked their shots. It is questionable though if Canelo has the stamina to do this and if he employs this style, will he be able to avoid being countered all night? Others, as recently as Guerrero and Ortiz, have tried and failed to apply pressure effectively.

3. Canelo has a low output and seems to try to place emphasis on accuracy. But can he outbox and outland Mayweather? A different kind of fighter I know but Mayweather dismantled Marquez, who is perhaps one of the most intellegent boxers he has faced, and Marquez failed to find him with leads or counters.

4. The 152lb limit. Canelo shouldn't focus training too much on making the weight and forget to dedicate time to developing a tactic to beat Mayweater.


The way I see it, Canelo has two main options. He can apply a pressure style, try to use his size and land the harder shots while taking some himself. But does he have the stamina for this? Alternatively, he can try to box Mayweather: take away his countering oppertunities and make him miss: make Mayweather come forward and look for openings, hoping to reduce Mayweather's high connect percentage which is the cornerstone to his past successes. With this style though, how can Canelo land enough himself to take rounds?

A big concern for Canelo is how to take away Mayweather's lead right hand. A high guard and lots of head movement that he employed vs Trout may help here, and use lateral movement, particularly circling to the right. He can't be a stationary target too often. Also, he should avoid getting in too close to Mayweather too often as it will smother his own shots, bring Mayweather's shoulder roll into play and sap Canelo's energy.

Another thing I would advise Canelo to do is not to headhunt too much, especially when Mayweather is on the ropes. Mix up the attack with body punches and try to stop Mayweather using his shoulder roll which makes him look in control. I also think he will have to, in general, employ a number of tactics: mix pressure and boxing at range, to conserve his stamina and keep Mayweather guessing. Mayweather adapts to his opponents quickly so employing one strategy is unlikely to work.


All in all, it will be an uphill battle for Canelo but I do think he possesses the tools better than any of Mayweather's most recent opponents: He has decent speed, power, intelligence and will have size and youth on his side. The bookies odds are probably about right.


If you were advising Canelo, what tips would you give him? How does he beat Mayweather? What does he do if he finds himself behind going into the later stages of the fight?

 

Yes very good point about planting the feet. I think he will have to pick and chose the time to plant the feet and throw combos and his power shots. There may come a time when he will have to look for the knockout.

 

His stamina might be more of an issue in that case. I think that probably is the style to beat Mayweather (the Castillo blueprint) but I'm not sure Canelo has the stamina to keep up that style for too long, or I'm not sure if his jab is good enough to set up attacks consistantly. I wouldn't say he is really a natural pressure fighter either. He does have the size which he will have to find a way to use intelligently.

Yes, as mentioned in the OP I think Canelo will have to try to be unpredictable and employ a variety of styles/tactics to ensure Floyd doesn't get into a rhythm and time him.

 

That's a good point about gauging distance. Distance will be important in this fight: Too close too often and his shots are smothered and he is countered, too distant Mayweather potshots moves and Canelo can't land. He will have to mix it up I think and try to be as accurate as possible, with lots of head, body and lateral movement. Easier said than done!

 

I think he means that if he is behind on the cards, Canelo might try to go for the KO and leave himself more open in return. He would also be more tired. Cotto was nearly stopped in the 12th round, but you are probably right, Mayweather didn't go for the knockout then and he won't vs Canelo if he risks leaving himself open. Unless Canelo gasses completely which I don't see happening.