all the money is on a DRAW !

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by split_decision, Sep 14, 2013.

  1. Juan Ma Lopez

    Juan Ma Lopez Active Member Full Member

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    Thats all the casual punters happens before every single big fight in recent memory
     
  2. split_decision

    split_decision Electronic information tampers with your soul Full Member

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    yeah thats if its odds on either fighter but the odds on a draw never drop this much, draws usually stay pretty much the same. The MGM sports book has gone from 30/1 down to 8/1, youve gotta admit thats strange
     
  3. bigeddie27

    bigeddie27 Boxing Addict Full Member

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    8/1 on a draw is terrible odds. I would not even bother.
     
  4. stutheviking

    stutheviking New Member Full Member

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    When pricing up a fight the draw is figured in the over-round so the only reason sports-books will change the price is dependent on what the liability is on there own books.

    So Sky Bet have it priced up at:

    Mayweather 4/11 73.3%

    Alverez 11/4 26.7%

    Draw 16/1 5.9%

    Overround = 105.9

    The point is that it wouldn't take much money to move the price on the draw as its only moved a small % and just because there has been some movement on the price at the MGM sports-book doesn't mean a massive gamble is going down.

    Here is an example when I was over in Longchamp (France) for the Arc (horse-racing) a horse called Deep Impact went off the 1/10 FAV on the PMU because of all the Japanese punters who traveled over to see the race distorted the price as its a tote system but when you looked at the real price with the sports books it was nearer 7/2.

    The fight is in the MGM so they will take more casual action on the fight and distort the price with all the Mexicans at the venue, If you look at the Burns fight last week he went from 3/1 to 2/1 before the off to win by KO that was a reduction of 8.3% and is a bigger move than what the draw in this fight.

    By the way I am going with Mayweather by KO between rds 7-12 at 9/1 as the value bet on the fight.

    Enjoy the Fight!
     
  5. Nonito Smoak

    Nonito Smoak Ioka>Lomo, sorry my dudes Full Member

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    Smart...
     
  6. Cableaddict

    Cableaddict Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    Casuals probably don't bet on the draw. I would think the almost all bet on a KO. - That's all that boxing IS to them.
     
  7. Kydosan

    Kydosan New Member Full Member

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    A rematch would make a lot of people a lot of money. If it goes to the cards there's a very good chance it'll be a draw, no matter what actually goes down in the fight.

    The odds being the way they are just show that everyone knows how corrupt this sport is.
     
  8. split_decision

    split_decision Electronic information tampers with your soul Full Member

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    This ! and the odds keep on dropping