Marquez was dropped and couldn't Alvarado away. I am not saying Provodnikov is would win but he would have a very good chance almost 50/50 in my opinion.
Also include a course in the Equilateral Rhombus Paradox which basically proves that a fighter could not beat a fighter he has already beaten.
Sure JMM might win by decision but he's not knocking Provodnikov out, no way. Rios? , Provodnikov would destroy Rios.
Provodnikov pretty much only has a puncher's chance in this matchup, but Marquez has never been stopped while Provo can be outboxed and he tends to lose focus/steam as the fight progresses which can prove dangerous against a sharp counter puncher with ko power. Marquez may get dropped along the way but I see him winning a comfortable decision, and Provo will be the worse for wear by the end of it.