My Two Cents: Hopkins vs Kovalev - Technical Analysis

It's only a week away. If anyone is interested/bored enough for a pre-fight read, then please feel free to have a look:

http://a-neutral-corner.blogspot.ca/2014/11/my-two-cents-hopkins-vs-kovalev.html

 

nice piece.

 

Thanks!

 

Very good. Enjoyed that...

 

Nice write up and very good analysis. Also agree with your outcome to, though I hope for another one...

 

Good stuff.
I do not agree with the outcome.
I understand how you come to the conclusion but logic is not always correct.
I have been a betting man my whole life and one thing I know for sure. Streaks end, Hopkins streak of beating younger stronger guys will end. Kovalev is very patient he will not (as you say) rush in and waste energy. He will pick his spots to unload his power and sometime, at least once in the fight he will catch the old man a half a second off in time and hurt bernard badly and after that Bernard will go into full defense and give away rounds.

 

Good stuff man! Agreed, you're obviously very knowledgeable on the subject. After reading ESB for too long I expected 'lol he's like 50 and still fighting, he's gonna get knocked out' but I was pleasantly surprised!

 

Good breakdown and analysis. I still tend to favour Kovalev, but undoubtedly Hopkins has a very solid shot. As you point out, key to the victory will be the extent to which Hopkins throw / clinch tactics break up any sustained offense from Kovalev, and how well Kovalev responds mentally if his offense is frustrated into the later rounds.

 

If it was any other 50 year old, id favour Kovalev, but its not. Its Hopkins were talking about, its simply not safe to bet against him.

Kovalev seems really confident.

To me that means a) Team Kovalev have mastered a great plan for dealing with Hopkins or b) Kovalev is setting himself up for a fall just like Pavlik, Trinidad etc did.

 

Cracking stuff, Jay. An excellent breakdown. I've been analysing the fight myself (some would say over-analysing!) and have identified a lot of similar areas where the fight could be won or lost, but you've got some really interesting points all of your own, mate.

Originally I was down for a Hopkins win via close decision - now I'm very tentatively leaning towards Kovalev to pull it out after a shaky start. But no outcome aside from Hopkins winning by stoppage would surprise me here.

 

Good analysis. I've enjoyed it.

You have stated the known points about the fight: bhop will try to move, stick, pop and hold... and Kovalev will try to keep him in fire-range and blow his head.

For sure Kovalev will try to use some tools against hopkins straight right pop-n-hold tactics... like receiving him with a right upper... or will try to muscle him out of the clinch to tag him while he is out of balance (Nonito vs Rigo kd style)

Kovalev has the one-hitter-quitter on both hands, but there are two points that I doubt about:
- his chin
- his stamina

Kovalev reminds me slightly to Korobov: he does not like to be hit and fades late on fights. We are not used to watch Kovalev under fire because his opponents are buse trying to save their lifes, and we don't use to see him on late rounds, so I've my doubts.

what do you think about it?

 

1) Kovalev's chin is fine, and Hopkins does not hit hard enough to test it.

2 ) Kovalev has no stamina issues, and will be in top shape. At age 49 Hopkins is not going to fight a full three minutes.

3 ) This is a mis-match, Kovalev is going to pound Hopkins to the head and body.

Kovalev via TKO, RTD, or DQ inside of 8 rounds.

 

Why not inside three?:huh

 

Thanks for the fine work Jay. I think your severely underestimating Kovalev's smarts. Hopkins best chance of winning is fighting a foolish puncher. Hopkins isn't likely to out land Kovalev, or win via power punches landed.

Kovalev was something like 195-15 in the amateurs before truing professional. A cross armed defense or a counter puncher from a corner, even on on Hopkins level if not going to deter or fool him.

Kovalev isn't Kelly Pavlik. And that fight took place years ago. Once a fighter turns 40, he ages in dog years.

 

Great article. My prediction is pretty much the same. Assuming Hopkins body doesn't defy him