We all know Toney could be horribly inconsistent. At his best he was great at his worst he lost to Thadzi and should have lost to Tiberi. An ill prepared Toney get's outworked late and loses a clear decision. But Toney at his best would be too good for Calzaghe. Calzaghe is open to the right hand and Toney had a great counter right. Calzaghe sometimes stayed in range too long when getting his shots off which would leave him open to be countered. Calzaghe's phenomenal work rate wouldn't help him against Toney who would use it against him, slipping shots and countering. I will add that I think Calzaghe would always be competitive, it would never be an easy night for Toney.
toney busts joes ass hypothetically, in reality joe runs in terror gibbering from the prospect of getting in the ring with toney until until toney turns 43. and then he will proudly proclaim toney is prime and proceed to go life and death to get a controversial SD where he gets dropped until toney gasses.
Calzaghe threw a ton of punches and there is the chance that he outworks Toney, but Toney threw a lot of punches back then too. He let his hands go in combination. I hate Compubox, I think it's often inaccurate when it comes to punches landed, but it does show that Toney threw a lot of punches back then. I think it's pretty accurate with punches thrown. Punches landed is a different story. 168 was Toney's best division, and I think the extent of the weight-drainage is probably exaggerated in the Jones fight. I don't think Toney was drained here like he was at 160 and deserved to lose to Dave Tiberi of all people (two months after looking brilliant against McCallum). RJJ was not only a great fighter, but one of the worst matchups for Toney. Calzaghe will win some rounds on his activity and make it competitive, but I don't think enough to win the fight. It's hard to keep that workrate up with someone who is as brilliant and sharp a counterpuncher as Toney. Toney by decision, 8-4.
Calzaghe's overly/freakishly active style is the ideal style to trouble someone like Toney. Whatever happens in this fight, I expect the ending to be 50/50 and could go either way. My pick would be Toney simply because he already proved he can handle brutal fights at the very top level and against opponents he wasn't expected to beat.