Zackman, It might not be his chin. It could be his toughness. Ward might not like it to the body and could opt to play it very safe. We have not seen Ward in a tough fight. If Kovalev get's his jab going, this fight is over. Ward will need to outbox Kovalev on the outside, land his counter, and protect his midsection and chin. He has great skills. They both do. A+ match up!
Of course I agree with you, this is a top notch fight among two of the best in the world right now, both in or close to their primes. And certainly, if his chin holds up, Ward could easily win this, as you suggest. I think your ****ysis is right on the money, but I do think that once Kovalev establishes the jab, he will be able to get his power shots in, and once he does, that power - and Ward's issues with punch resistance - will determine the outcome, relatively early.
Ward is nowhere near his prime. He is a pale copy of his 2011 version. His chin wouldn't hold against Kovalev even then though.
I expect Ward will try to use some rough house tactics like wrestling, shoulders, head and elbows to slow down Kovalev's aggression. As far as the chin factor I haven't seen enough evidence for Ward's chin to be considered suspect. He may not have a great chin but he's slick and makes it difficult to land clean shots. I think the big factor could be Ward's lack of activity over the last couple of years. He may not be sharp in that way that comes from actually fighting. I thought he looked ok against Brand but I was bit puzzled that he couldn't get him out of there. He could have swarmed him with a barrage of unanswered punches and gotten a stoppage but it seemed he was content to just let Brand off the hook. I like Ward based on his body of work but I'm beginning to have some doubts about his power being enough to get Kovalev's respect.