Canelo. Vargas would have a chance if he boxed smartly from start to finish, but we know he'd get macho and hang his chin out for Canelo to smash with a hook. He'd end up either getting stopped or worn down to the point of losing the second half of the fight.
Man, this would be a nice one to go to live. A lot of electricity in the air for this. It's not as if I like the Alvarez defense much but the Vargas defense is worse. Especially that elbow out to this kind of opponent. But Fernando is not a guy going out early--unless maybe he was in there with a Mugabi/Jackson/Hearns caliber hitter. I think it's a 5-7 round war and I like the condioning of Canelo to take over once the body work/2nd wind part of things come into play for vargas. That's when the defense part of things gets worse and his resilience just won't be enough. Really fun fight to imagine and 1 guy is going to leave part of himself in the ring with the loss.
Vargas by close, but, unanimous decision. Alvarez has good hand speed, but, is too slow of foot. And Canelo's conditioning late in a fight is often questionable.
Post Trinidad you totally right. But I would argue a prime Vargas (pre Trinidad) pulls this out in the late rounds with a close points win. Vargas had great cardio and too some degree spots of boxing smarts as we saw vs Yori boy. Vargas vs Winky threw 770 punches and vs Quartey he won the 10th and 11th rounds throwing 100 punches per round even outjabbing Quartey (known for his great jab). That's elite cardio. For me the real question is how Vargas handles the size of Canelo during the first half of the fight. It took Trinidad 12 rounds and multiple knockdowns to finish off Vargas. In the 9th and 10th Vargas actually went toe-toe with Trinidad and absorbed huge damage. Canelo isn't going to blow him out in the mid rounds.
yeah seriously is Canelo gonna come in weighing 175? If they are both 154 or close I like Vargas by TKO late. I know Canelo fought Mayweather but other than that who has he beat that he didnt have a size and weight advantage. Vargas had a lot of heart and a lot of experience facing actual elite fighters. Both take a beating, Canelo gasses and gets stopped on his feet. Vargas TKO 10 in a war.
Canelo has never experienced the ferocity Vargas will bring. Kirkland wailed away until he was stopped but Vargas is another beast entirely. Canelo wants to play the role of counter boxer and he will do that here. But when times get rough I'm not sure he can survive it. This is a very good match up. I think Canelo takes it on points but I'm not confident with that pick.
I remember Vargas having big problems late in the fights with Quartey and Winky. In maybe the tenth or 11th, I remember Quartey hurting Vargas with some right hands. It's true that he would throw a lot of punches, but he was leaving himself vulnerable by doing that. He showed plenty of vulnerability leading up to the Tito fight.
Yes he did. He had to outwork and use a sloppy volume offense vs Quartey and Winky to win late and those fights were very much up in the air come the championship rounds. Quartey and Winky are excellent fighters though. Too me Vargas at his best when he was this out hustling boxer/puncher, his counter-punch move style was not sustainable and we saw that in his fights with Trinidad and Campus, he was always going to end up in a battle but could jab/box for parts of a round before his instinct to fight took over. I agree though Vargas even at his best had a vulnerability. He was mostly offense and took many shots and his defense was average. He was able to hide those flaws due to youth. I don't think he could have continued winning in the same fashion of those Quartey and Winky fights for too long. Such a style is not good for a long career. I don't think I'm seen a more proud angry fighter, he entered the ring with such an immature ****y attitude, he was so pumped. It appeared that Vargas had to inflate himself in stature it was bordering on comical. Fighters like Tyson and Duran seemed to be naturally surly and their attitude more genuine.
Canelo's fast hands keeps Fernando occupied for a few, precious rounds. Some have already touched on size, but I don't see a pronounced difference; maybe six pounds in Alvarez' favor helps him take punches better. I expect it to go a hard twelve with no knockdowns either way. For reference, I wager it'd resemble some odd combination of Trinidad-Vargas and Alvarez-Cotto. Alvarez UD.
I'll take vargas ud Slightly better boxing skills I mean if he could out point winky and ike...I'll take him too decision the ginger.
