A decision win for Larry, if not a very late stoppage, is the most likely result here. In fact, I don't think it would even be that competitive in the end. Holmes' movement alone would stymie the German. Schmeling used on-rushing momentum to stun the young bomber, using Louis' own style against him in effect. Holmes would not be moving forward; and everytime Schmeling thinks he has a counter opportunity, Larry's own right will strike down the pipe too. He has the speed and reach advantage; the outside game is his. Larry can throw a right uppercut from anywhere even from the outside just like Lennox Lewis after him. Overall, it's just not a very good match for Max.
I think Holmes reach, durability, activeness, and even power ( for a boxer ), would take Schmeling apart leading to a stoppage in the mid rounds. Schmeling was a tad too small for Holmes and never fought a boxer of his calibur. He had the right style to beat Joe Louis the first time, but Joe was only two years into his career, and like so many young fighters who become successful very quickley, he was taking his success too lightly and didn't prepare accordingly. We all saw what happened in the rematch after the wake up call.
Schmelling's legendary right would be a clear and present danger to Holmes. I see Holmes circling away from Schmelling's right and fighting very cautiously to outpoint Max for a close decision.
Schmeling right would always present a danger, but Holmes would be able to survive even if he was dropped. He is the bigger, better fighter that has the edge in speed as well. You have to be a master finisher to stop Holmes, and Max wasn't. Holmes is probably able to dominate using the jab and his superior reach and win by late KO or clear decision.
Holme has faced big puncher before. Max didn't have very good head movement and moved about too stiffly the way I see it. This would probably be target practice until he wears out Max with those right hands. Max does not go the distance :!:
Quick Cash and Magoo are right on the money. Too much size speed and skill for Schmeling to cope with. Max wouldn't have the opportunity to counter Larry and as a result would take a methodical pounding from the outside. Louis stood right in front of Max. Larry wouldn't. Holmes by TKO somewhere around the 9th or 10th.
I strongly maintain comparisons like this are like apples and pears: it's boxing, but a guy like Schmeling is a cruiserweight by today's standards. Furthermore, the techniques that we consider core to modern boxing were under development in the 1930s. There simply weren't any fighters around then with a toolbox like Larry Holmes's. So, given that Holmes was bigger, fought at least one guy who hit harder than Joe Louis or Max Baer (Shavers), had access to skills that Schmeling would never see, and had the kind of jab and reach that would completely shut down Schmeling's linear offense, this would be a non-starter for "The Black Uhlan." See my article on the Schmeling here: www.associatedcontent.com/article/782765/max_schmeling_1930s_german_heavyweight.html?cat=49