Miguel Cotto vs. David Lemieux

What is your prediction?

 

Lemieux is a fat ****, he can afford to shed some of that lard off, maybe makes him faster.

Lemieux would be hella smart to accept this fight anywhere between 157-160.

If he wins he becomes a world level player. If he loses, he lost against the former lineal MW champion who has wins over better fighters in Martinez and Geale.

 

Lemieux will walk into the ring at 175+, he'll go right at Cotto. I can see Cotto countering beautifully,and...BAM!

 

When Hearn signed Jacobs Lemieux was talked about as an opponent not next but in the near future for him. After Golovkin and Canelo the chance of fighting Lemieux surely was looked at as a perk of his HBO deal. Yes you're right that because of Lemiex's style and the threat of his power losing to a top guy won't be the setback it might be for others. But I still think if Cotto dominates Lemieux his lustre as an opponent immediately after is at least somewhat dulled. As is the chance of him for Jacobs in say March, which would be what I meant when I said Jacobs would want a pretty noteworthy opponent as a precursor to the Canelo-Golovkin rematch winner. You're really excited about Cotto's last fight, but a retirement fight to me means Cotto's no longer relevant, just like Hopkins against Smith, and I'd rather see Lemieux against Jacobs, with clearer future implications.

 

Close to 50/50 fight IMHO, might still lean to Lemieux at 160 due to size + age but not very confidently.

I thought Cotto was done and would've easily picked Lemiuex a couple of months ago, but he looked really good vs Kamegai, so who knows? He's definitely the better boxer of the two, but the thing is, can he take or avoid all of Lemieux's bombs?

 

True true. There are higher risk lower reward opponents at middleweight, but Lemieux would be good recognition and reward regardless. Will be interesting to see how the next year at middleweight unfolds.

 

While this is a good fight, it is not a good farewell fight for Cotto. Lemieux's size and strength make it improbable that Cotto wins the fight.

Cotto would have his moments landing some eye-catching shots and he would probably win a good amount of the early rounds. By the midway point of the fight, though, I expect that Lemmy's size, youth, and strength would start to wear on Miguel. Cotto starts finding himself on the ropes more and more often in the later stages of the bout, which has become a war of attrition. Cotto is valiant, but Lemieux is brutal. TKO 10! Roach throws in the towel as the ref looks to step in! Cotto slumps battered against the ropes after receiving a barrage of shots to the head and body.

That said, there is actually hope for Cotto in this fight, as I believe IB alluded to earlier in the thread. If Cotto can bank a good amount of early rounds and a couple of sneaky rounds in the second half of the fight, he could end up winning a hard fought decision on the scorecards. To do this he will have to survive Lemmy's second half onslaught, which will be difficult, but not impossible for a skilled veteran like Miguel. What an interesting fight!

 

If it goes to the 12 Cotto should outbox him, however, I see Lemiux knocking him out. Cotto doesn't have the youth anymore to keep Lemiux at bay and he is going at him like he did against Curtis Stevens.

but he needs to knock him out before the 7th otherwise he will tire out

 

Cotto is experienced and too good for Lemmy.