Before the Fury fight I was leaning towards Wilder. But how limited he looked... idk... obviously I knew he was one dimensional... but, that was pretty bad. Also, I thought he looked extremely vulnerable, in both his chin, and his stamina. And AJ has a legitimate skillset. It might be basic, but its solid. And while Wilder can of course land that one punch, if this turns into a fight fight... its hard for me not to see AJs power, tools and skills making a big difference. I hate being that guy that lets one fight sway his opinion, especially when that fight has no resemblance at all to this one, but I just cant ignore how limited and vulnerable Wilder looked. Its a 50/50 shootout for me right now.
This is a hard fight because of Joshua's lack of stamina. I would say that Joshua should win in four rounds, but if he can't get wilder out of there, then Wilder will probably stop him. Joshua's stamina is shockingly bad, and when he's tired, his defence is bad. He doesn't move his head, and his defense is just not good enough. I would say Joshua in four rounds, if not, then Wilder by 7-8 rounds.
Wilder's deficiencies as a fighter were made very apparent vs Fury. While Joshua isn't as good a boxer as Fury he's more than good enough to out box Wilder. Wilder's only hope is to land his big right hand as that's his only real weapon in this fight. Problem is he telegraphs his right hand so badly. He loads up on it or gives a tell by taking that big step before loading up on it and so Joshua just like Fury will know it's coming. Fury just slipped it and occasionally would counter with his own right. But unlike Fury Joshua will likely look to throw his right hand harder and straighter and beat Wilder's looping shot to the punch. Molina said after fighting Joshua the hardest thing he found is comparison to Wilder was how hard it is to read what Joshua was going to do. Joshua disguises his punches much better than Wilder, which again what we saw when Wilder fought Fury. Fury was easily able to see what was coming his way and avoid Wilder's big shots. Joshua will also do this to a lesser degree and Wilder just like vs Fury may get sloppy and wild in trying to land his shots. But it's not all bad news for Wilder, Joshua is not as elusive as Fury, he'll stand right in front of Wilder more often and give Wilder a greater chance of landing something. But the danger is, if Joshua sees it coming and blocks or slips it, Wilder will have a counter coming right back at him with KO written all over it. Even if Wilder can hurt or drop Joshua, Joshua has shown he can be dangerous. Wilder is so wild when trying to finish an opponent off, that it was easy for Fury to slip in a counter down the middle between his wild swings and Joshua too loves to be on the inside and catch and counter and I could see Wilder getting KO'ed trying to finish Joshua off. Personally I think Joshua is a worse style match up for Wilder than Fury. Both can out box him but Joshua has the power to really punish him for his mistakes. I see Joshua overwhelming Wilder and stopping him inside 6 rounds.
I've always thought Joshua has the edge in this fight. I think he can overwhelm Wilder. But he really needs to go for a KO as soon as possible. The longer the fight goes, the more it favours Wilder.
Wilder has a puncher's chance at this point, but that's about it. He's shown his level now - he doesn't have one dominant win against a top 10 opponent and is fortunate to still be champ. He should cash out now v Joshua and hope he gets lucky.
Joshua would most likely win, Yes Wilder does have good power but Joshua is a much better boxer. Fury won the fight on the weekend and it showed just how bad of a boxer Wilder is. Lets all be serious this fight is not going to happen, Wilder will just go back to fighting irrelevant fighters again. Fury vs Joshua is now a fight i would rather see then Wilder vs Joshua.
Fury has the ring IQ the reach and the footwork to fight Wilder from distance despite Wilder thriving on distance to land his looping shots. Conversely I think Joshua should get much closer and break Wilder physically with his superior physicality and weight whilst also being the more damaging and dangerous infighter. I can see a Joshua uppercut - left hook combination being the crushing blows that take Wilder out inside 6 rounds. By being in close he deny’s Wilder the room to wind up his overhand right and bully’s him backwards onto the ropes.
I favor AJ personally, but definitely not a sure thing. It's almost a 55% - 45% fight in my opinion and my guess is if they fought 10 times 6/4 wins would be to AJ. What is damn near certain though.. I can't see any fight between them ending in a decision or draw. It will be conclusive.