I saw this question on another thread about the £80m Fury deal: It's a good question and because threads talking about the business side of boxing are universally popular here I thought it deserves a thread in its own right. So here's your trigger warning, this post contains speculation around the finances and politics of boxing. So why have ESPN made this investment now? My guess is the figure is a result of a number of factors all coming together. With HBO out of the picture and DAZN entering the market place, ESPN have both threat and opportunity. DAZN are the threat. A well resourced rival in streaming, the likely future of boxing broadcasting and where ESPN have gambled their future. There's probably only room for one boxing streaming service ultimately and the best time to kill DAZN is in their launch phase when they're vulnerable. The opportunity is HBO's abandoned boxing audience to try and capture and potentially the chance of forcing Showtime to follow their cable rival out of boxing. So on both threat and opportunity, now is the time to be aggressive and use your market power. The Heavyweight division has historically been the mover in US boxing and there's signs that era could be returning. ESPN were risking being left out of a key division and starting to lose relevancy amongst boxing fans, Showtime had the best US fighter and their streaming rival had the number one and was picking up HW's left right and centre. The aftermath of Wilder v Fury suggested there were now three key players in the division, with Showtime and DAZN linked with Wilder and Joshua, Fury was the only game in town if they wanted to crash the party. The response to the LA fight and his much publicised redemption tale suggested he had breakout potential, the chance to reach out to new consumers and grow their subscriber base. Their response is to sign Fury as a way to put themselves firmly in the heavyweight conversation. If Showtime want to capitalise on the audience they helped to create they will now have to deal with ESPN. If DAZN make a play of having the number one HW, they can counter with the 'lineal champ'. They have a shot at taking all the belts, they keep themselves in the conversation and they can try and drive subscriptions on some easier to make fights with their in house talent such as it is. As for then amount, I think like all quoted boxing figures such as Canelo total deal its a top estimate and to realise that a lot of boxes will need to be ticked such as new subscribers to the ESPN service. The amounts that they and DAZN are spending however do show that long term they think the streaming model will win out and whoever is left standing will be raking it in. A good talker like Fury who reaches a wider audience and guarantees social buzz could help them get there, hence they pay out. Too soon to say whether it pays off, but in one day and with one signature they've made themselves part of the conversation, ensured a seat at the table in negotiations to come and made it far more difficult for their rivals to corner the HW scene. Sounds like a smart and gutsy move. This is how I see it. How about you?
Good post. They saw Fury's popularity and see it as a possibility to create another Conor McGregor type of hype-train. Fury is also very media savvy and his comeback story is also pretty epic so this adds to the gravy train.
Excellent post. I'd briefly wondered about it, but hadn't stopped to think about it, but this basically covers everything (I think) I would have decided about the reasons. Good move by ESPN. For all the reasons you state, even if it doesn't pan out, they had to do it.
Think part of it is protection. Fury isnt an opponent that people chose to fight, hes a shot caller also. I think they were probably annoyed that there was no talk of 50/50, and a fight in the UK was thrown out the window straight away. Wilder/Showtime arent really a strong enough A-side to be throwing their weight around like that. ESPN deal strengthens his position in any negotiations, both sides of the pond. Also the BT aspect will have something to do with it, with DAZN aligned with Sky, and PBC to ITV, Warren wouldnt have wanted to make a deal that impacted his BT relationship
Fury has the most charismatic personality of any h/w champion since Ali. That helps enormously in terms of marketing him to the US audience. He basically does the promoter's job for him. Let's keep it real though - what Americans like the most is their guy being the best. Fury has some boxing talent as well. He wasn't supposed to beat Wilder but his performance in successfully defending the lineal championship with a draw is actually a better result for him than a win b/c now he's not contractually obliged to give Wilder a rematch on pre-agreed terms. He's free to negotiate his own terms and be the house fighter for the rematch rather than the other way around. The big win for ESPN would be if they could get Wilder on board as well. I don't think they will want to share with Showtime. If they could bring Wilder over as well they could match him with Fury another couple of times & then call the shots for a unification fight with Joshua when Fury v Wilder eventually gets sorted. Or freeze Joshua out completely if necessary by highlighting his non-lineal status. I think having ESPN as a / the major player in h/w boxing is a good thing for the sport. ESPN is far more accessible to the masses than Showtime or HBO. To grow the sport as a whole, you actually need to bring in new fans. That's hard to do when the biggest fights are all siphoned off to premium cable networks.
Tyson Fury is the best talker and promoter of a fight of the current era. He is also proven to be elite when he is switched on. If you were going to sign anyone who was a “free agent” at HW it would be him. I would personally like him to put more beef into his punches as he did earlier in his career, as he has become overly safety first in his approach.
I personally don't understand ESPN's investment for the figure branded about. Fury and Wilder ticket sales bombed badly qnd as did the potential rematch against Wlad in his hometown. The only other decent HW Top Rank have is a huge potential banana skin for Tyson in Pulev whom recently beat a fighter whom has a very similar style in Hughie. Fury is no where near the money maker that the two boxing superstars are in AJ and Canelo. I know ESPN spent big on Crawford but despite being considered a top P4P and the self proclaimed best fighter in the world he's hardly a house name in his country let alone the world. Can he potneitally be? Maybe but Crawford would need fights against established names be it Pac, Spence, Thurman, Porter and Garcia to become a superstar.
It "should" be Wilder getting these extraordinary deals..... Although it appears no current promoter has faith in offering DW longer than a fight by fight deal... Anybody care to wonder why???? Finkel Haymon Sho, don't have a drop of long term faith in Wilder and neither do Arum/Hearn (see the recent "one fight deal" comments lol) Going off Wilder's past 41 fights and his performances (leading until the KD or windmills) could you imagine the waste of money if that money was aimed at DW??? Breazeale and Kownacki is that lads hope of making his 43.... Then who??? Because as soon as he steps up into the top 4/5 heavyweights (AJ Whyte Pov Fury) he will lose in embarrassing fashion - see the unfit Fury fight model and even arguably his only other respectable fight, pre Ortiz KD for that matter, Wilder loses more rounds than he ever wins.. Whos gonna invest in a coin toss like that in the long term?? Wilder needs to be screaming for Fury/AJ now..... but where's he gone??? So, IMHO this is why its Fury, now and £80m.... He sells and will stick around, Wilders the C-Side now hahah.. I can see Wilder retiring after his first loss
Surely even you, as a bit of a Fury hater, can see Tyson is levels above Hughie and would beat Pulev. Longer reach and more experienced too. He’d also never be fighting Pulev in his backyard.
I don't understand how it's an anti-DAZN move... It is hardly is, imho. DAZN means Hearn, Fury means Warren (let's not forget it's a copromotional deal). This was rather a move against Haymon (and the affiliated with him TV networks) or, possibly, maybe indeed an attempt to force him to cooperate. In short, I think TR and ESPN decided to act now because they had understood that Tyson Fury could become a big star (in America). He's a hard-to-beat boxer (to beat him you need to knock him out, most probably, and that's always an opportunity for a rematch, at least). And he's an excellent talker. Which is obviously a big plus. On the downside is Fury's not the most entertaining boxing style (it could be helped by matching him against inferior opponents in stay-busy fights) and, well, let's say his unpredictability. What if he decides to inhale some of that cocaine again or just to take a vacation from boxing for a year or two? But, again, TR signed the agreement not with Fury directly, but through Frank Warren, so, to deal with Fury's emotional side is his problem, not theirs, in fact.
They're fighting a war on two fronts, so perhaps offensive where PBC/Showtime is concerned and defensive towards DAZN? Hearn's looked to concentrate his acquisition budget on two divisions, middleweight and heavyweight. Signing Fury makes it harder to get a lock on the latter. If you're marketing the ESPN app you now have a headline grabbing marquee heavyweight to go along with their established stars at lower weights and Arum can talk down the DAZN events as lacking legitimacy next to the 'lineal' or WBC if they can get that belt off Wilder and Shortime. Their signature of mandatory Pulev also looks interesting, especially if that's a defence DAZN have marked down as a potential US fight. Be interesting to see how that negotiation goes when the time comes. I don't think the UK side is a factor in their thinking. Solidfiying the Queensbury/BT Sport axis adds some additional content for their app and strengthens their hand bidding for fights.
It's a risky investment because Fury has a history of being unreliable. I wouldn't be surprised he will feel financially comfortable at some point and then I can see him drift into indifference again: "Tell me, I have a big house, I got a big car, I got a beautiful wife. Why would I get up at 6 o'clock in the morning?"