Leon won the first fight in Feb 1978 in a huge upset and Ali became the first 3 times heavyweight champ by winning the rematch in sept 78. He then officially announced his retirement the following year in jul 79 but what if he had decided to fight on and signed up for a deciding rubber match against Spinks in late 79 or early 1980. Who would have come out on top in their trilogy had it happened then?
If Leon wasn't drinking and drugging, got totally in shape and determined --as he was in the first fight-- he should win. That's a big 'if', though. You also need to clarify if Leon's flattening by Gerrie Coetzee is part of this scenario, as that happened in June of '79. It would have been a terrible fight, as neither guy had much to offer by that point.
I would have in this scenario, given encouragement of a possible announcement of a third fight with Ali, Leon not going through with the fight against Coetzee in jun 79.
Well, Spinks did have some good wins after the Coetzee defeat that would led to a title shot against Larry Holmes in 1981.
Whoever fought the winner and Ali`s Parkinson`s really kicked in during the gap between his bout with Spinks to the Holmes disaster.
If it happened during the first half of 1979 I'd pick Ali. The last half of 1979 is pick 'em for me. January 1980 on, it's Spinks. If, say, Holmes had pulled out of the Ali fight at the last minute and Don King set up Ali-Spinks III as a replacement on that October 1980 night, the Spinks of that night's Mercado fight easily defeats the Ali of the Holmes fight.
I can't see a rubber match happening though. By 1979 Holmes, Norton, Shavers, Coetzee, Kalli Knoetze, John Tate, Mike Weaver, Stan Ward, even a still green Gerry Cooney would have easily beaten both Ali and Leon Spinks.
Yeah, as I recall there was no call for a third fight after New Orleans. Everybody knew about Spinks' troubles and how he blew the rematch, while Ali was going to ride off into the sunset (oh, if only...).
I can't see Ali getting himself up for another 15 round fight by then .So it wouldnt be a massive shock for me ,for Leon to get another decision over him. Depending on if Spink s can get himself sorted out of course ...
with the hindsight we have now, its unsettling to be even considering it for a Parkinsonians patient.
If Spinks was to get into good shape he would've beaten Ali pretty decisively maybe by a late stoppage. If he didn't it Ali might be able to squeeze out a decision. This would be the worst heavyweight trilogy next Holyfield vs Ruiz.