My Initial Thoughts On When The Chelyabinsk Krusher Meets The Cinnamon Boy Of Guadalajara.

There seems to be a lot of people awfully sure of themselves when it comes to Canelo taking the W on November 2nd. In some cases, even the Kovalev fanboys are writing off his chances of victory. There's a whole lot of people that have been beaten down, honed and molded into having this depressing reflexive cynical way of thinking, by the endless amount of corruption that many foreign fighters face when they don't have the homefield advantage or when taking on the name big wig fighter. I know this feeling well, it's plagued me with this dirty rotten corrupt sport for years. But that doesn't rob me of my abilities to be reasonable, rationale and logical and see everything clearly, objectively and most importantly allow myself to be sucked down the fatalistic preordained rabbit hole of defeatism and hopelessness. So to them, I say... not so fast there ye of little faith hombre, all hope is not lost... so buck up. This will not be a walk in the park for Saul.

Most seem to think this will be over and done with fairly quickly, Canelo will go in there, attack the body, Kovalev will wilt, and he'll score the TKO victory, easy peasy. Well to them I say? Where the hell would you even get such a lamebrained dumbass idea like that? Tell me, which matches exactly did Canelo just "have his way" with a top tier fighter? When did Canelo become this savage KO artist? When did Canelo develop this amazing gas tank? When has Canelo ever looked amazing against a P4P fighter, even old past it shot to **** ones? What exactly are you basing this on? And with such confidence too. Then there's the other pessimistic camp that think that Canelo no matter what happens in this fight, will manage to get a gift decision as always and take it by the dreaded controversial SD or MD. Well, I'm going to do my best to shatter all of these ill informed and poorly thought out tropes into itty bitty pieces.

Canelo has KO'd approximately 1 opponent in his last 5 matches above 160. It's pretty obvious his fairly average power, didn't carry up all that well. I mean, he literally had a punching bag standing in front of him for 12 rounds to tee off on in Chavez Jr., Julio who let's be honest, hasn't been the same since his match against Martinez, in which he was rocked, and then his moronic venture North to take on Polish pencil necked beanpole Andrzej Fonfara, a match in which he was beaten within an inch of his life. Add to that, he can't healthily make anything below 168 very easily, without being horribly drained. Yet even with all of that wear and tear, and being shot to smithereens, Julio just soaked up everything Canelo threw at him without batting an eye. Never came close to going down. If any fighter had ever been ripe for the picking, it was JCCJr. and Canelo no matter how hard he tried, and he tried for 12 rounds, literally loading up on shots, simply could not pick him.

Then we have his two matches against Gennady Golovkin, which we shouldn't read much into, since GGG has a godly chin, one of if not the best in the sport currently. He went toe to toe with him for 24 rounds and never came close to cracking that iron mandible of his. Did he hurt him to the body? No sure. GGG looked like it was a minor inconvenience when he would land down there flush. Certainly not Thurman vs. Josesito levels of panic. Regardless, this is a tired, old, disinterested, depleted, nearing shot version of Golovkin, who hasn't looked exemplary since his match against Kell Brook, who managed to rock GGG far more with an uppercut than Canelo did with anything he landed. Also, Canelo got walked down and beaten in the first, and outjabbed on the backfoot and beaten in the second, and yeah, here's where with disheartened masses became so disheartened. GGG got shafted in both of them. But here's the catch, GGG's style plays right into Canelo's hands on the front foot and the backfoot. They have a similar reach, almost the same height, similar build and GGG gives him ample opportunities to at the very least give the impression he's teeing off on him, while literally standing in the pocket some times. "The Story of the Fight" to rip off Kellerman, was that Canelo looked like he was getting a lot of work done. Meanwhile, most fans with a keen eye saw that GGG was parrying and blocking almost everything. But to the casual fan, it still looked like Canelo was landing at times with impunity. Because in the first fight, GGG was walking into what appeared to be looping counters, and the second fight, GGG appeared to be occasionally getting lit up with wild looping hooks. So the narrative was set, in spite of the reality when looked at with a closer eye, not matching it. Anyway, he never hurt or put GGG down, although GGG did rock him on several occasions.

But the most troubling of all is the fact that he couldn't even come close to hurting The Miracle Man Daniel Jacobs. Granted, Danny has a far better chin that first thought. Since he got disconnected from his senses by Pirog, everyone has been expecting him to get KTFO every time he gets in the ring. Partially aided by the fact that he's been rocked by Ishe Smith, dropped by Sergio Mora, hurt by Caleb Truax, and was looking ragged while getting lit up by Derevyanchenko late. He fought as near perfect masterclass against GGG, where he was defensively brilliant, so he wasn't soaking up GGG bombs flush, and still GGG managed to deposit him on his backside. It should also be added that Jacobs was aided immeasurably by the fact that he rehydrated up to Crusierweight when facing GGG. But Danny's journey at MW is nearing it's end, he looked pretty weak and off a step against Sulecki and Derevyanchenko, it could be argued he lost both of them, I doubt he can physically make the weight very much longer. But he did, once more against Canelo Alvarez. You'd think certainly Canelo, who's far more apt to load up on and land absolute bombs and in combination at times would be able to put Danny down at least once right? Nope. Stagger him maybe? Again nope. Knock him off balance? No Siree, not even close. Now remember, this is a Jacobs that was far more stationary, who was willing to trade far more than he did against GGG, also a Jacobs that barely made the weight. But guess who was gassing from round 6-12? It was Canelo of all people. The Gasnelo of old finally made his long awaited return, and people seem to not remember that fight as accurately as they should. Danny was lighting his ass up at times, dare I say, Canelo was rocked far more times late against Jacobs than he was against Golovkin. He even looked like he was about to go once or twice. Jacobs also dominated the second half of the fight. Not sure how so many people watched that match wearing blinders, but they clearly missed what transpired in the second half of it.

Now where is all of this vaunted power for The Ginger One? It's been nowhere to be seen.

But... but.. but... Rocky Fielding and Liam Smith though! Let's analyze those to KO's shall we.

Rocky Fielding is next level glass jawed and bodied. He was violently KO'd in 1 by Callum Smith, he was violently dropped and later badly rocked by perhaps the most featherfisted Super Middleweight on the planet in Christopher Rebrasse. And was also rocked several times by The Gorilla John Ryder, after he moved up to SMW, long before Ryder truly believed in himself, and learned to sit down on that hellacious right hook of his. So these weren't big shots. Rocky then of all things, decided to fight Canelo's fight, by getting in close and going to war. Everyone of the top guys at MW, including Saunders KO Fielding. He's that fragile.

Okay, fine, he stopped Liam, but goddamn, it took him long enough, and like with Fielding, Beefy choose to stand toe to toe, face to face and slug it out. How did he last 9 rounds just standing there being beaten like a drum? Hmmm, not much power on Canelo's thudding loud shots perhaps?

He has decent power at 154, moderate power at 160, at 168, remains to be seen, because the Fielding KO is irrelevant. Kovalev would take him out in 1, with a Sillakh like demolition job. How will it carry up all the way to 175? How well did Broner's? How well did Chavez's? How well did Mikey's? How well did Horn's? How well did Rigo's? When they all moved up way too high in weight? If you aren't blasting out sitting ducks at your ideal perfect weight of 154, and not making dents in guys at 160. I highly doubt you'll just find your power all of a sudden out of thin air 3 divisions North of where you should be.

 

Now onto the fragility of The Krusher. Fine, he doesn't like it to the body. I got it. Well then, why the hell didn't Eleider Alvarez the second time around and Anthony Yarde just go ahead and stop him by going to the body? Because when he's pumping it out the way he should, Sergey Kovalev has perhaps the best jab in the sport, that's why. And it's really really really hard to get past it. Guess what else? He's really really really heavy handed. Which is why they make little to no effort to try to get past it, especially early. They don't want to risk it and take too much damage, but invariably just by standing there getting peppered with it non stop, they still do. Also, if they get careless and rush in, Kovalev's fearsome straight right is waiting right behind it. The jab is to blind your opponent for the power shot you're going to follow it up with, and it's also to control the range, and he can the whole night if need be because it's that authoritative. Kovalev uses it like a fencer, and no one wants to lunge into getting a poke in the eye.

Now here comes the power issue, but Eleider dropped him and stopped him! Yeah, well... Eleider hits FAAAR harder than Canelo, especially when he gets a clean shot, that's why. DeGale, Pascal and Jack, reasonably hard punchers couldn't make a dent in Bute. All it took was one clean straight right on the button, Bute went all jelly legged and that was that. Eleider also managed to rock Pascal far harder than Bivol and Browne ever did. Make no mistake Eleider Alvarez is a very big and very powerful Light Heavyweight that could probably make Cruiserweight, and he stopped an ill prepared drunk off his ass distracted Kovalev, not a focused well prepared sharp as a knife version.

Also, don't delude yourselves. While Anthony Yarde may not be some next level talent, his power is very very real. The fact that he stopped Sek for the first time in his career, he stopped Sjekloca for the first time in his, stopped Nemespati 3 rounds faster than Callum Smith, stopped Reeves 7 rounds faster than Murat, kind of proves that. Couple the natural raw power, with the fact that the man is a literally a brick ****house who could make Cruiserweight with absolute ease, and has a great chin. Kind of means, no Middleweight is going to move up and walk all over him, hell most Super Middleweights would get smashed to bits, a few already have. He's a big, very powerful, very heavy handed dude, who will probably only lose to the most skilled fighters in the division who can negate his advantages effectively.

So for Kovalev to get stopped by one and hurt by the other, no big deal. But what is a big deal, is that he took the power in the second fight against Alvarez, and took the sustained assault from Yarde, never folded, never went down, never mentally quit and came back even stronger the next round.

But you may say, Canelo is more skilled than those two. Are you so sure about that? Alvarez is a brilliant boxer, who rarely if ever loses a round, even against top guys, not to mention he's 6 foot tall and has a 76 inch reach, 6 inches longer than Canelo's. And what Yarde lacks in skills, he makes up with in sheer power and brawn. I actually have a really hard time seeing Canelo even being competitive against those two. Much less beating one of them. The skills and size of Eleider and the size and power of Yarde would be far too much for him to overcome.

Hell, we haven't even seen how well Canelo can hang with a non ****house tailor made Super Middleweight. Could he beat Benavidez? Plant? Smith? Doubtful. Skills may pay the bills, but those skills only take you so far when you're scaling weight divisions like King Kong climbing the Empire State Building. Sooner or later you get so high, you find yourself punching waaaay above your weight class. You then realize, you're out of your depth, as your violently being swatted down to earth like a fly.

A few things to consider.

Kovalev is a far rangier, far lighter on his feet, far more fluid boxer than Gennady Golovkin. GGG has gotten into a rut of squaring up in front of his opponents a little too much, and while defending well, opens himself up to far more shots than he used to. Kovalev still fights cautiously, and his jab in non stop, and coming from all angles, jabs to the face, body, arms, shoulders. Anywhere he can land it, to keep his opponents at bay. And since its still heavy as ****, none of them can even think straight enough to think their way past it. All they're concerned about is avoiding it, and especially what might be lurking behind it. Canelo has always struggled against guys with good jabs, Kovalev's is the best he's been against since Mayweather or GGG. Only far heavier, more active, and maybe even better. Canelo didn't fare too well in either of those cases did he?

I go back to the body argument. The only one who effectively went to the body was Ward. Canelo Alvarez is NO ANDRE WARD. Andre had to deploy every trick in the book to slip, bob, weave, plow, slide, smother, hold, clinch and wrestle his way to get inside and land every one of those body shots. And let us not forget, it took him 12 whole rounds the first time around to figure out exactly how to pull that strategy off. And it's not like Kovalev is going to go all GGG, and make himself an available target.

The Gas Tanks of both men.

Is Kovalev's gas tank really as bad as we think it is? After all, he got lazy and wild against Eleider. Against Yarde, he slowed down in the middle, then caught a second wind. We'll never know if he'd have had one of those second winds against Ward. But judging by how he bounced back against Yarde, it's not an impossibility. Regardless, he was still very active into the 10th (96 thrown) and 11th (52) against Yarde and all the way to the end of the 12th with Eleider (56, 57, 78). Compared to Canelo's 38, 51, 58 against Jacobs.

How about Gasnelo's? He was running on fumes by the 6th against Jacobs, was eating bombs in the 9th and 10th, and was dead on his feet, thankfully, Danny was about as gassed as he was. Not to mention, he gassed in the last 5 or 6 against GGG both times. It wasn't quite as noticeable, but I noticed, and many others did as well.

175 is Kovalev's natural weight. 160 is Canelo's natural weight, and the reality is, he's just a stocky 154lber, his stamina and gas tank didn't improve at 160 all that much, who's to say it wouldn't have emptied against Fielding had it gone past 5? I can almost guarantee his stamina probably wouldn't have been stellar. At 175, he'll be flat out chunky, overweight, dare I say fat. Will his gas tank expand or contract even more? My bet is on he'll be gassed by the 5th.

So do the math, it's really hard to get past Kovalev's jab for the first 6-7 rounds. You have to soak up a ton of damage to get your licks in, well by the time the 8th rolls around, Canelo will ... wait.... gassed two round before that. So after taking punishment for 6 or 7 rounds, eating heavier shots than he ever has to date. Will Canelo have the energy to launch a full on sustained body attack in the 8th and 9th? And with his lack of power, will Kovalev even notice? After all, he stood up to Yarde's much heavier damn near Cruiserweight shots, and came back even stronger.

Canelo's gas tank is every bit as bad, if not far worse than Sergey's. Sooner or later this is going to prove to be quite detrimental to the Ginger One. Is moving up to 175 and taking on one of the heaviest handed fighters in the sport before you've even faced anything resembling a threat at 168 a way to test it?

And think about this for a few second.

Canelo barely beat Golovkin and Jacobs at 160, arguably lost to both.
Kovalev barely beat Ward, and got robbed against. ANDRE WARD, I repeat ANDRE WARD.

He OUTBOXED ANDRE WARD. Got it? The same Ward that would dominate Golovkin and Canelo from bell to bell. And throw in outboxing Eleider Alvarez, Jean Pascal and Bernard Hopkins for good measure. Canelo can't even convincingly outbox Danny Jacobs and Erislandy Lara.

There's levels here. Canelo and GGG's level is being overestimated, Sergey as it has for years, is consistently being underestimated. But here's the reality, anyone who can say he outboxed Andre Ward.

He's not going to be mother****ing easy to outbox.

Who knows what will happen. But if I had to hedge my bets, I go with the Champion at 175. And by stoppage.

Canelo got rocked by GGG and Jacobs. If he gasses bad enough to where he can't defend himself, I shudder to think what could happen to him here. There's every possibility that the judges won't even be needed to save Canelo. And even if he does make it to the final bell. Losing 12 rounds running for your life shelled up in survival mode, isn't going to get him the decision. It didn't work out too well for Mikey did it? Getting smacked out around in a one sided beatdown isn't a good look. Not even the Vegas judges will be that blind.

 

Also as a sidenote, thanks to @minemax for pointing this out. The warning signs should have always been there.....

Christ! This is the English translation of the lyrics to Kovalev's theme song.

So evidently the boozing is nothing new.

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[Lyrics for “Forever Young” ft. Semantic hallucinations]

[Verse 1: ST]
I'll be forever young and forever drunk
The eternal smoke of smoldering marie ...
The eternal son of an eternally young mother
Hungry artist, empty pockets
Faceted glasses
Eternal memory to those who left too early
Eternal memory to Sergei Bodrov
We will light candles in temples and forever remember
Remember to walk around the edge
And I grow if I still fly in a dream
My love, I have no right
For your sake, even for a moment, show weakness
I'll be young and drunk your dope
Faithful dog, without fear of being deceived
And when I leave, others will come
This terrible power is love for Russia

[Chorus: Semantic Hallucinations]
Forever Young
Always drunk
Forever Young
Always drunk
Forever Young

[Verse 2: ST]
I'll be forever drunk forever young
I'll be forever in the morning with a hangover sick
I will love, and I hope that I will love
I will try to remain myself
Trying to make dreams come true
That my son, falling asleep, calmly dream
I have never been tame:
Father taught: the main thing is to keep the rod steel
And which of us will live to thirty
Gray hair in temples for these riots
We have absorbed the law with breast milk:
To live so that the family is proud later
Tattoo memories on the body
From the cradle to the light at the end of the tunnel
Manuscripts do not burn, poets do not age
Whoever is true brother is stronger

[Chorus: Semantic Hallucinations]
Forever Young
Always drunk
Forever Young
Always drunk
Forever Young

[Outro]
Forever Young
Forever Young
Forever Young

 

And how exactly is Canelo going easily saunter on in and do that work to the body?

 

One other REALLY BIG thing that I forgot to add.

Kovalev used bigger gloves than usual in the Yarde match. So Yarde wasn't getting anywhere close to the full effect of Kovalev's power.

Because Sergey wanted his hands to be nice, pristine and uninjured for his appointment with Canelo.

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