This fight is 50/50 because Aj is a bad style match up for Fury. I've explained it numerous times but most people dont believe me
AJ is an amazing inside fighter (Not really) He has fast feet (Nope) He has a high fight IQ (Nope) He has great stamina (Nop) He is mentally tough as nails (Nope) He has an iron chin & great recovery (Nope) AJ has nothing to surprise Fury with. He'll quickly revert to type under the mental pressure Furys boxes with & probably physical pressure late fight.
Fury beating 39 yo Klitschko wasn't impressive. Fury won yeah but by a few extra scruffy jabs in the rounds he won. Furys movement and defense is pretty damn good but he can be hit and I would not be surprised at all if AJ beats him. AJ has a high quality amateur resume too so he clearly knows how to box despite not looking as fluid as Fury.. People bang on about how AJ didn't deserve the gold medal at the Olympics but I've watched the Savon fight (the one that was most controversial) and there is defo an argument that AJ won. Quite ridiculous utter casuals banging on about robbery in the YouTube comments. He did **** up the third round tho and Savon was landing quite a few in that second half of that round. Okay I'm going on a tangent, but the fact is whether you agree or not AJ was at the minimum very competitive with Erislandy Savon.. And Savon is insanely good
Because Aj isnt going to allow fury to set a rhythm and pace the fight. He's going to be on the front foot against fury and he's going to apply pressure. He not wlad and wilder. He wont throw 1 punch at a time and allow fury to jab his head off and move away every round. he throws punches in bunches and will will move forward, cut off the ring and attack fury head on. Also Joshua know that fury can only sit on his punches when hes on the front foot so at that point he's already cancelled out furys power by aggressively putting fury on the back foot. Fury moves much better than Aj but aj will work the body in the early rounds and wont let him get comfortable behind a jab. very similar to a Joe Fraizer and Muhammad Ali dynamic. In addition to that fury clinches for dear life when a fighter gets on the inside. It'll work until the middle rounds when joshua decides to try and take fury out. He'll go ape**** like he did against wladimir in round 5. Keep in mind Aj wouldn't be cautious at all to rush fury since he did it to wlad and wlad hits MUCH harder than fury. Fury at this point only has movement and size on his side but also keep in mind joshua doesnt have trouble with bigger people, he has trouble with smaller opponents. Also fury doesn't have the fire power to keep Aj at bay. When fury clinches joshua will get extremely aggressive will work the body and push him off and he'll keep attacking. Fury has the size advantage to lean on joshua. But as soon as he leans on joshua i honestly think joshua would just uppercut him and take him out. Why wouldn't he ? His style is all wrong for fury. Only reason this is 50/50 is because fury is the best technical boxer since lennix lewis
I agree it's a bad style match up but not for Fury. Fury is all wrong for AJ in so many ways. AJ doesn't like movers. Savon out boxed him in the Olympics, he even had trouble cutting the ring off on Takam, how on earth is he going to do that vs Fury? AJ isn't a pressure fighter, yes he's aggressive, yes he hits hard, but he prefers to catch and counter opponents that come to him, rather than chase and press. Plus he simply doesn't have the work rate or gas tank to fight that way even if he wanted to, he's not grinding Fury down. Fury doesn't have the best chin and AJ has turned fights around with one big punch on more than one occasion. But what Fury does have is almost supernatural powers of recover. Even if AJ drops him, I doubt he can keep him down and we know AJ gasses if he goes for the kill and fails to finish his opponent off and that leaves him vulnerable. Overall AJ for me is the clear underdog. But what AJ has that Wilder lacked is an ability to disguise his attacks so he may land more, he's strong enough in the clinch and on the inside not to be manhandled and he does have that X factor that ability to win fights he's losing though I don't think that will be enough to beat Fury.
Joshua isn't a pressure fighter. He can be aggressive for short periods but not for long. For example, went at Breazele early smashed him up early but then had to back off and box, same with Whyte when he got hurt, same with Wlad, he tires and then gets hit when fatigued and then has to take the gas of the pedal allowing opponents back into the fight. Maybe he can blitz Fury early on when fresh but if Fury rises Joshua going for the kill risks gassing himself out and getting countered. The way you describe Joshua it's like he's Joe Frazier, he's not Joe Frazier, he fights like Frazier for more than 3-4 rounds he'll gas so bad he'll need to be put on oxygen. He throws 30-40 punches around he isn't outworking Fury. Yes Joshua is strong on the inside maybe he can break or prevent and clinch and unload up close, that's when he'll have opportunities but will those opportunities come often enough. He isn't a pressure fighter, he won't sustain attacks, he didn't do it vs Wlad he won't do it vs Fury. Wlad not known for his chin and stamina, Fury is superior in both regards, so while Joshua may have turned things around on Wlad, Fury is a much tougher proposition. Yes AJ can risk more vs Fury being less powerful than Wlad, but Fury isn't no pillow fists and moves better than Wlad as well as being rangier and more dangerous on the counter as Wlad wasn't a counter puncher.
Never said wlad was tougher but Aj already stated hed work the body and come forward agaisnt fury. What youre saying is when Ajs hurt he'll back of but fury wont hurt Aj until he fights Aj off. Fury won't do that as his power come from him going on the front foot. Breazeale and especially whyte hit much harder than fury and can fight Aj off on the inside. Like how whyte went toe to toe with chisora. Fury outclassed chisora but went on the outside and used his enormous size to his advantage for most of the fight. He never actually brawled chisora and had success on the inside. Joshua has the physical dimensions and the aggression to beat fury. Aj fought a 6'9 outboxer and mover in the Olympics named ivan dychko and was the first person to put pressure on dychko because nobody up until Aj was big or aggressive enough to do it. His size will throw fury off and it wont be as easy to outbox joshua like other short aggresive fighters fury has because Aj is huge. And when dychko tried to clinch later in the fight. Aj nulified his clinching ability on the inside by getting hostile in the holds and fighting him off and continuing to apply pressure and attack him. I said a Joe fraizer dynamic because joe fraizer pressured ali and worked alis body. Not because Aj fights just like fraizer. People forget joshuas not just going to head hunt and waste all his energy. Aj even admitted in an interview hes going to work the body of fury and has been analyzing him for quite some time now. That should be concerning for fury fans. Because now Fury has to worry about protecting his body and his head from combinations not just one punch to the head like wlad and wilder. Whyte has been talking about working the body of fury to slow him down if they fought and wallin has success going on the front foot against fury and working the body. Gerry cooney himself said in an interview that wilder needs to work the body of fury. Hes a big guy and its an obvious weakness Aj will exploit
You know what will beat both of them? A huge wall of text, without capitalization, punctuation or structure.
I disagree strongly, I think Fury is all wrong for AJ - he can box rings around AJ if he chooses to, throw jabs and then slip away with ease as AJ isnt really that fast on his feet. If you stand in front of good punchers like AJ and Wilder they’ll destroy you, Takam was able to last long with AJ because he could move around the ring but just didn’t have the IQ to land anything. However, boxing is all about opinions and these fights are more than just about styles sometimes. The bookies have them close and wouldn’t be the biggest shock to ever happen in boxing if AJ did manage to win.
Joshua is a gun-shy hype job, scraped through the Ruiz rematch by tapping and running. Fury would beat him with his eyes closed.
Saying you'll work the body and being able to work the body is another thing entirely. Joshua will need more than body punching to beat Fury who's never really shown a weakness to the body before and his low guard style means his arms are blocking his body most of the time, hitting Fury to the body might be a good plan if he had a high guard but he doesn't the blocks the body with his arms and uses head movement to slip shots to the head. If AJ makes a concerted effort to the body, Fury isn't just going to lift his guard to let him hit him to the body, what on earth are you watching to think a body attack would work? If AJ is walking in trying to pressure Fury he's walking into counters which amplify the power of a shot as it adds your own momentum to the punch which is why Fury was able to hurt Wilder when Wilder went for the KO both times in the first fight. Plus AJ isn't going to be pressing all fight long like Frazier. Fury will have opportunities between AJ's attacks to fight on the front foot and deliver his power because AJ doesn't throw a lot of punches, he simply doesn't have the engine to keep Fury backing up all the time. Much like how Wlad was able to just press AJ backwards early by doing little more than standing in front of him and feinting, Fury can do the same as Joshua has to rest and naturally is a counter puncher not a come forward pressure fighter. Fury isn't going to brawl with AJ though he is capable. He didn't need anything more than his usual boxing style to beat Chisora but he's shown vs Cunningham and Wallin he can get down and dirty and fight inside, muscle guys around and beat them up. Please Dychko isn't all that. The guy has an even worse gas tank than Joshua and an amateur fight vs a guy with a amateurish style proves nothing and while I agree Joshua is capable of fighting out of clinches and preventing them he still needs to be able to apply enough consistent pressure for that part of his game to be significant which against a skilled, agile boxer like Fury is likely to be infrequent. You're selectively picking and choosing examples to fit your opinion rather than forming your opinion on the reality of things. Joshua isn't the pressure fighter you make him out to be, give me one example of a fight where he applied sustained pressure round after round in a long fight, you won't find one but for some reason you think Joshua overnight develops stamina and a Frazier like pressure style. And I say all this as an AJ fan, when they fight I'll be rooting for Joshua not Fury. Joshua has the best chance of anyone to beat him, but he's in no way the favourite based on their styles. Counter puncher/boxer in Joshua, vs the best pure boxer in the division, isn't a style match up that favours the former. Joshua I'm sure will have his moments, more than Wilder ever had as he is better on the front foot and varies and disguises his attacks better than Wilder but it won't be enough in my opinion.
