Most notable A.J win was vs beltless reanimated by eddie 41 y.o out of retirement Wlad in U.K. A.J fans compare this with Fury vs 39 y.o Wlad in Germany with large bunch of belts in his hands. Sadly looks that most qualified and skilled + in skills / shape proportion best opponent A.J had was Ruiz Jr. Rematch version might had been outpointed for example by the same Russo ( amateur rules boxer, Usyk looks that had fought him 2X in ams ) and this is no offense to Andy, in good shape Russo I think had won prime Briedis and Gassiev if this had been gone till cards. Russo was very good.
A good post but I disagree in a few areas: Ruiz is only regarded by many as being pretty heavy handed because he battered AJ into submission but the record suggests that he isn't a big puncher and more often than not goes the distance, including against journeymen with half a dozen or more KO losses on their records, despite Ruiz being highly aggressive stylistically! The alternative hypothesis is that AJ has sub-par punch resistance, as well as a terrible gas tank and questionable mental strength, which combines to make him especially vulnerable to being stopped for a SHW. Usyk had Chisora hurt twice and was pushing him back in the mid-rounds but opted to "play it safe" and go for the distance, which very nearly backfired. If Usyk can hurt the highly durable Chisora, he can do even more damage to AJ and then press for a finish instead of holding back. Can Usyk take one of AJ's world-renowned upper-cuts? 39.5 year old Pulev took four in quick succession and at the very least his defensive skills are poor compared to Usyk's. Usyk has fought a number of fighters who are big punchers at heavyweight (Joyce, Majidov, Briedis, Gassiev) and wasn't seriously hurt or dropped at any point. AJ also hasn't got a 1st half stoppage since the chinny journeyman Molina almost 5 years ago, didn't hurt fat Andy as much over two fights as 40 year old, retired Arreola did in one and was going the distance with Takam, who both Povetkin and Chisora bombed out. He also didn't drop Parker, whereas Whyte and Chisora did. This suggests that AJ's one punch power is not as great as it's made out to be. He's an explosive combination puncher but what good is that if you're gassed after throwing a few of them? Not much unless you already have your man seriously hurt and AJ has far less confidence in his chin and gas tank than he did pre-Ruiz, let alone pre-Wlad. The Usyk that didn't stop Hunter, Glowacki, Briedis or Gassiev at cruiser probably isn't going to stop a defensively-minded 240 lbs AJ. Usyk showed spurts or even a lot of aggression in these fights (Hunter especially and he would have got the stoppage anywhere else) so it's not like he can't box going forward. I'm not saying he should neglect defense and just trade with AJ either but he needs to be more offensively-minded than he was in any of these fights. Weight is a trade off: you suspect that by bulking up to 225 lbs or 230 lbs Usyk would be slower, less agile and have less stamina (in a non-physical fight) but he will likely have more punch power, punch resistance, mass, strength and wrestling ability (which helps to conserve stamina in a more physical fight). AJ is also likely to be more cautious against an Usyk that he only outweighs by 5-15 lbs than 20+ lbs. I'm going to trust his team's judgement here; what worked against other 210 lbs men or against amateur SHW's in 5 round fights with bigger gloves isn't necessarily the best option against a highly experienced SHW world champion who carries a lot of power and explosiveness, but who is also chinny, gasses easily and is mentally vulnerable. Furthermore, it would be terribly embarrassing for AJ to get beaten-up and KO'd by a supposedly tiny and featherfisted Eastern European cruiserweight (not as bad as the fat Andy quit but still very bad and now the 2nd time) and would undermine his confidence even further, making mopping him up in the rematch that much easier.
"Not at the level" meaning not with as much pressure or not as competently? The main difference imo is that he did it for the whole fight rather than being generally defensive and doing it in bursts, which his own lighter weight and lazy pig-midget opponent assisted with. Usyk's getting on yes, possibly slightly past his prime but much of this narrative is generated by idiots who were told that the Chisora fight was close or that Usyk should by bombing Witherspoon out in a couple of rounds. It was also a small ring in the Chisora fight which clearly favoured the heavy pressure fighter over the mover. Is AJ in his prime? Experience wise and technically yes, physically maybe not and mentally definitely not. If the fight is close Usyk loses, unless he KO's AJ in which case the fight probably wasn't that close. If AJ gets KO'd again he has sustained yet more physical and mental damage while Usyk has gained even more confidence, shortening Usyk's odds in the rematch.
I think 39.5 year old Pulev version AJ had in the ring Usyk, Gassiev, even now old Briedis had finished in distance easily. Too predictable and too slow for them to make a lot of problems. V.s Briedis he looks that didn't had get his chin checked enough normally. Looks that he still was down but cos Briedis simply had pushed him and Usyk was down ( slip ). Briedis doesn't likes boxers with good footwork if they are very agile!!!!! and changes angles too fast for him to read up + i these have good am elite level jabs. Usyk, most likely even Russo looks that might be worse opponents for him than Chisora, Whyte type boxers. Usyk then was capable to do this. Gassiev he I think he managed to keep busy enough not to allow him set up normally. Vs Gassiev he had demonstrated insane workrate ( punches he threw ) and looks this was too much for Gassiev. However yeah, if he had sparred with Wlad, Vitali etc blokes, he is more durable than we might think.
Not at that level as in Aj wasn't moving laterally anywhere as good against Parker and wasn't on the backfoot as much. If Aj gets KO'd then yes whoever the rematch favors is debatable but i do doubt that. Anything can happen but my calculations do predict Aj by controversial but a competitive and close decision
If I was betting this which I'm not I would hedge AJ on points with Usyk by KO. The problem is that it's very plausible that AJ gets a KO, legitimate or not. And if Usyk knocks a gassed AJ down 2-3 times late Usyk might get a draw or even edge it. Too unpredictable.
A.J might gain weight a lot and come out fat, very heavy. When bell will rang, he will move to Usyk and hold him, press and rotate, lean on Usyk and push him.
Judges going to be a waste of money when AJ is using Usyk like floss after AJ gets tired of Usyk tickling
Some great points, a lot of which I have considered as well, especially the mental side - how much self-belief does Joshua have, especially when/if Usyk get's into a rythym - Bellew said Usyk is mentally draining to fight, and that's not a good thing for AJ. Usyk changing approach does make the fight more intriguing in many ways, and Fury showed against Wilder that a great fighter CAN change their approach and pull it off. I've never rated Joshua that highly due to his stamina issues (I always thought prime David Haye would beat him for example), and do rate Usyk very highly so it's a real interesting one to see how in turns out in the end. I just KNOW that the Usyk that beat Gassiev is a nightmare matchup for Joshua, I hope this 230lb doesn't regret the change in approach.
Yeah, the old 'right man won' saying, next words mentioned should be 'so who really gives a ****, want to grab a bite to eat?' . Seriously though, I agree 100% but judges do like Usyk, he has been on the road many times and always got the judges call, yes he's dominated the fights but he hasn't be ripped off yet.
Agreed. You're not wrong there. I just like to counter people who lazily say he's "old" without providing much rationale. The same sort of people who'll say "X is 'all wrong' for Y" and leave it at that.
Very doubt that AJ can catch Usyk to hold him, but to lean on him ? AJ would have very hard time finding someone to prepare for Usyk. But Usyk have good experience with tall guys like AJ. Plus he would be heavy with more muscles and power.
Of course not! If you're a foreigner in the UK, the US or any other of the bigger boxing countries, you're usually fighting 5 opponents instead of one. The opponent, the referee and the 3 judges. Now, if you're fighting a cashcow on their promotion, you better dominate him, knock him out cold or drop him many times over.
No. Usyk is going to have to be clearly the better boxer if he is going to win on points. Anything close will go to AJ.
