Joshua vs Usyk, how good of a chance does Usyk have?

What?? This fight is happening??? I remember when 90% in this forum were saying how AJ was so "Terrified " of Usky?

 

Anything can happen in this fight.
I suspect Joshua will win, and his fanboys will hail it as a great victory.
I'm not 100% sold on Usyk. He has a good chance to win but he's already 34 years old and has only one significant full HW fight (against a fringe contender at best) and he's had injuries and while he's a legitimate heavyweight, he'll be going up against a fighter a lot bigger than himself who is very explosive and good offensively.

 

The Usyk we saw at cruiser, I'd be sure would beat AJ.

The Usyk we saw at heavy I am less sure about. He seems to have slowed down and bulked up and I'm not sure that suits his free-flowing style.

Some posters have said that Usyk has been bulking up even more, possibly in a bid to match AJ for strength. IMHO that's a bad idea. Usyk has the angles, the footwork and the stamina to drag AJ deep and drown him. Not sure that going the Wilder route is going to help him.

 

230 pounds with good speed and more power. I don't know...

 

I feel the same.

I don't get why these smaller heavies always feel the need to come in heavier when facing a big super heavy. It doesn't matter how much they bulk up they will never be able to out muscle them no matter how much mass you put on all they are doing is diminishing their one true advantage.

Usyk has never been a physical fighter, he's always been about movement and angles, the idea of bigger is better here just isn't true.

The only benefit might be the ability to take Joshua's power a bit better but then he'll get hit more that he would at a lighter more agile weight.

 

30lbs heavier than his prime weight is not a good idea. That much weight gain will damage anyone, especially a mover

 

Usyk by KO first half of the fight, then AJ fights Chisora in a 'Battle of Britain' tear up.

 

whats the difference? they both show usyk catching shots from a slow lumbering plodder. leaves little doubt aj will be able to find the target. and you can see the difference in how usyks shots are affecting chisora and how chisoras shots are affecting usyk. not hard to imagine what is most likely to happen against a faster, more accurate, harder punching chisora. like an aj perhaps.

 

How Usyk coped with a front-foot 255llbs high-volume pressure fighter like Chisora - which was very well once you strip the fight back to its component parts - bares very little relation to how he will deal with an increasingly cautious boxer-puncher like Joshua. Oddly, I think AJ's style pre-Wlad would have been a much tougher proposition for Usyk than the one who fought Pulev, despite some obvious technical improvements.

AJ took 4-5 rounds to finish off a badly hurt Pulev, partly due to his new cautious style, partly due to his leaky gas tank and partly because since Ruiz he's rightly concerned about his ability to deal with the impact of a single punch. People can write off Ruiz's right hand to the temple as 'lucky' but AJ can't - he felt it and felt the consequences.

If AJ treats Usyk like he dealt with Pulev - hurting him early but letting him off the hook - he will face a very different response and result. AJ's best hope is to trust his athleticism, put it on Usyk early and not back off if the KO doesn't come straight away. But I'm not sure that AJ exists anymore. As a result this fight has wrinkles and shifts closer to 50/50 the longer it goes.

And as for that recent video which showed Usyk weighing more than 230lls, I very much doubt he will come fight night. He looked fleshy and, if this was a genuine change in approach, he would try and keep that card close to his chest not video the scales for all to see...

 

Wilder had the idea that he needed to get bigger and stronger to be able to deal with Fury. He pushed a lot of weights. Wilder's strength is his snappy explosiveness ... he shouldn't be muscling up he should be skilling up. Usyk already has the skills. He mustn't be looking to outmuscle Anabolic Anthony, he should be looking to follow the Ali route and to outbox him.

Eh, it is what it is.

Joshua may have a fragile chin and if he does, maybe Usyk is right to do what he does.

 

If Usyk now weights 230 lbs he for sure did not had gained 30 lbs weight.
I think he was walking around above 210 lbs before end of training camp for CW fights.
F.e before one CW fight approx week before weith ins he was approx 206.5lbs.
Ofc he was not weight bully at CW but most likely it was something like 206-209 lbs in the ring.
There is enough to see how looked 217 lbs Usyk: lean, with visible six pack and low fat %.

I think that Usyk had moved up to HW not only due to money, he also most likely had been slowed down too much for CW top fights.

Nothing wrong, while I do not buy with a glance all what is stated about Usyk's purses at CW, there for me is reason to discuss this aspect with sceptic point of view.
HW fight like he had vs Witherspoon was well paid, especially if bear in mind not only risk/ reward, also effort and mileage racked up by such fight. Beautiul ROI/ risk- reward proportion.
Then Chisora fight, well paid and still looks that it took from him lesser than any one from these his 7 CW fights with title on line.

Why?
Chisora ofc had put Usyk in trouble for first 4 rounds, after 6 rounds Usyk already was able to make it in cruise mode cos Chisora gassed out.
Compare with CW fights vs then in prime shape undefeated Glowacki and in Poland. Not boxing corpse we saw in his last fight.
While Glowacki ofc isn't HW boxer, he then possessed high risk: he was durable and with good gas tank, boxer who loves to use opponent's mistakes. The same Huck with 0 doubts had won all rounds vs prime Glowacki, even managed to floor him or a count and battered him. Fight almost ended, 1 mistake and Huck lost fight he already had won.
Briedis in prime shape. He was better exactly in last rounds vs the same Usyk, also vs Dorticos and Huck too.
Gassiev fight? Then he was injuries free, undefeated and in his prime. Gassiev too had good gas tank: he destroyed Dorticos in last round of 12 rounder. While the same Dorticos too does have very good gas tank: the longer he fought vs Tabiti, the more effective he was vs Tabiti.

These boxers in CW shark tank if to compare with Chisora fight?
Yeah, Chisora is huge HW boxer, started to gass out after 4 rounds, after 6 rounds was gassed out vs Usyk.
Paycheck? " It's heavyweight " : very good, especially if compare risk/ reward and ROI & load on mileage for Usyk.

Everything is done properly.

 

Joshua by close decision