Given Pacquiao's age and layoff Ugas winning won't be surprising. Ugas is a good opponent. Ugas highly ranked because he beat and stopped an undefeated Bryant Perella, beat Jamal James and Omar Figueroa who were both undefeated & is the only guy to stop Ray Robinson who is a crafty, very durable sob that gives everyone fits. That is the same Robinson that beat Mean Machine and Josh Kelly right after (robberies). The Porter fight has little relevance to his ranking, he was ranked highly before and has been putting in the work for an age moving silently through all these undefeated prospects.
The Thurman version of Pac wins a wide decision, but who knows what version will turn up. One of these days, no matter what sorts of chemicals he's pumping into his body, he simply won't be competitive.
Pacquiao's likely a bit too good still, who knows with judges, but some sort of a points win for Manny, I would think.
Personally...I thought Ugas got robbed against Porter. With that being said... there's no way I can bet against Pacman. I learned my lesson with the Thurman fight. I like Pac by decision +110 Pac UD.
Nonito Donaire Jr., Manny Pacquiao knocking out Yordenis Ugas is highly probable "There's a possibility he (Pacquiao) would knock Ugas out because he just stays in front." "And he doesn't know how to run." "Manny is also stronger, I'm sure," said Donaire, who discarded Ugas' edge in height and heft. Jerwin Ancajas said Pacquiao will have an easier fight against the 5-foot-9 Cuban compared to Spence "When I looked at Ugas, his body was big and wide. But it was easier for Sir Manny, it seemed slow," said "The Pretty Boy" from Panabo City. "I saw him fight Shawn Porter. Not very fast, Sir Manny might beat or pound him," said Ancajas. "Maybe he could get TKO-KOed by Sir Manny." "But don't be confident either, he's a big man," said Ancajas. Antonio Margarito, former welterweight champion (lost to Pacquiao by decision in 2010) X factor: Pacquiao's uppercut swelled my eye and hurt me, but that's not the only punch Pacquiao throws with power, and that power is going to be the key. Either the uppercut, the overhead left, the straight, the right hand -- Pacquiao doesn't stop throwing punches, and it's the accumulation of punches that hurts you. Manny is not going to stand in front of Ugas; he is going to move, throwing punches continuously, and thus he is going to win the fight. Prediction: Pacquiao wins by KO, either by accumulation of punches or with a knockout blow, possibly after the seventh round. Juan Manuel Marquez, former four-division champion (defeated Pacquiao by sixth-round KO in 2012) X factor: Ugas' movements. He must do what he does best, move his waist, counterpunch and keep Manny away -- something that he can accomplish if he uses his height and reach advantages. Ugas' speed is key. If he fights Pacquiao at his own pace, he can take advantage. For Pacquiao, the straight punches will be the key, the punches that characterize him and that he throws with great speed and a lot of power. Prediction: It's going to be a very good, strategic fight that could complicate Pacquiao a bit in the early rounds, but with his speed, experience and punching power, I can see Pacquiao sending Ugas to the canvas and possibly win by KO. But I think Ugas is a very strong fighter, and he comes very motivated. This is a great opportunity for him to show that he belongs among the best fighters in the division. And that motivation will serve him well in the later rounds. It's going to be a close fight, but Pacquiao should win by decision. Ugas can take punches very well, but we haven't seen him with fighters on the level of Pacquiao. I'm going with Pacquiao by decision. Abel Ramos, welterweight contender (lost to Ugas by split decision in 2020) X factor: Experience. I give the edge to Pacquiao because of his experience. His work rate is awesome. There's nobody like him with that kind of activity he has in the ring, and that's going to be the key. Prediction: Pacquiao winning a decision, maybe a unanimous decision. I think Pacquiao is going to outwork Ugas throughout the fight and win rounds. Even at 42 he moves well, has speed and power. In his last fight against Keith Thurman he showed he's still the same Manny Pacquiao. I don't think that has changed. Raul Marquez, former U.S. Olympian and junior middleweight champion, and Showtime boxing analyst X factor: Father Time. If Pacquiao shows his age, that's good for Ugas. If Ugas wins the fight, then the biggest names in the division will want to fight him. Before, he was a high-risk/low-reward for the top fighters, but if he beats Pacquiao, they will want to fight him. He'd have the big name and a win over a legend. Prediction: I'm gonna say this again. If Father Time doesn't catch up to Manny Pacquiao, there's no reason to think Manny won't win this fight. I don't think it is going to be a KO. I think Pacquiao wins a decision, an easy decision. Doug Kezirian, ESPN gambling analyst We all wanted Pacquiao to face Spence, but Ugas should still make for a compelling fight. Even at age 42, Pacquiao has enough in the tank to outlast the tactician. Ugas is certainly a live underdog, but I don't trust the judges in what should be a close contest. Ugas would have to dominate, and he lacks the necessary punching power. Over 10.5 rounds is the safest play, but I don't want to lay -240, so I'll opt for the Pacman via decision at plus-money. Joe Joyce: Heavyweight contender "I reckon Ugas has the technical skills to beat Pacquiao. It’s going to be an amazing fight but I’m backing Ugas to take care of business." Dave Coldwell: Leading trainer "I’ve seen Ugas training with Ismael Salas over the last few years and I’ve always liked the look of him. He’s on a roll and I think he might burst Pacquiao bubble." Michael Conlan: WBA featherweight interim champion "I think Ugas. Pacquiao isn’t the fighter he once was and Ugas is a nightmare for anyone at welterweight. Ugas by close decision." Nick Peet: The DAZN Boxing Show "Ugas has the experience and pedigree to make Pacquiao work for his victory, but he doesn’t have the power to halt Pacquiao's relentless offence. This will be a one-sided fight in favour of Pacquiao and an easy night’s work for the judges." Andy Clarke: Boxing commentator "Ugas on points. He’s a good fighter and he’s fully prepared after already being on the original bill. It’s the fight of Ugas’ life and Pacquiao hasn’t boxed for two years." James DeGale: Former Olympic gold medallist and super-middleweight world champion "Pacquiao on points. Definitely past his best but still should have enough." Tony Bellew: Former cruiserweight world champion "Pacquiao on points. I like Ugas but he’s been at the level of Pacquiao before." Matthew Hatton: Retired fighter now training Campbell Hatton "Pacquiao for me. A legend of the sport still fighting at the highest level and he’s still got enough in the tank to beat Ugas this weekend." Cameron Dunkin: Boxing talent spotter currently managing Jaron Ennis "I like Pacquiao by decision in this one." Erik Morales sees explosive fight "This is going to be an emotional fight, an interesting fight. Maybe both fighters are a little tired and worn out but it is still a good fight,” Morales told Daily Tribune on Wednesday." Timothy Bradley sees Pacquiao getting ‘one sided decision’ over Ugas "Pacquiao loves to fight guys who like to work in that straight line, so that he can explode with his combinations on a stationary target. Ugas does that a lot," said Bradley. "He’ll punch and then come right back to that middle. That’s going to be the cause of Ugas’ downfall, and Pacquiao is going to make him pay, over and over again." "I see Ugas getting knocked down in this fight at least once, maybe even twice. He will get up, he will fight back, and I believe that he will survive." "Pacquiao was getting ready for a southpaw like himself in Spence, and this is going to be a completely different kind of fight against a very different type of fighter in Ugas," said Bradley, who retired in 2016. "But over the course of 71 pro fights, Pacquiao has built up so much experience against orthodox fighters, including some of the best fighters of all time, and that’s going to allow him to pivot a lot more easily than some others would. "At 5-foot-6, Pacquiao is three inches shorter than Ugas, but that’s never been an issue for Pacquiao. He has beaten all of these guys who are a lot taller."
The Ring Magazine Fight Picks TOM GRAY: PACQUIAO UD “Ugas does a lot of things very well. He’s got good variety, he switches effortlessly between head and body and he’s always busy. The Cuban star is also extremely durable, but he needs to be because he’s there to be hit. Ugas isn’t particularly quick, he doesn’t move his head and he holds his feet. If Pacquiao is at 50 percent, he’ll have too much speed, smarts and agility for a fighter of this quality.” ANSON WAINWRIGHT: PACQUIAO UD “I thought Pacquiao may have bitten more off than he could chew at this stage of his hall of fame career by facing Errol Spence Jr. Facing Ugas at just over one week’s notice isn’t ideal, however, the same could be said for Ugas. I feel that even at 42, Pacquiao’s greater activity will serve him well. Ugas is a difficult customer, an underrated fighter, but I don’t think he’ll get enough work done to impress the judges. He’ll have his moments, but Pacquiao will always be a step ahead and the one making the fight. Pacquiao to win a competitive but clear decision.” LEE GROVES: PACQUIAO UD “As would have been the case against Spence, Pacquiao will face deficits in height (three-and-a-half inches) and wingspan (two inches) and the Cuban is well-equipped to maximize those advantages. However, his work rate is not as high as Spence’s and that will make it more difficult for him to win close rounds — of which I think there will be many. He’s also not known for knockout power (he has a .400 KO ratio) and he doesn’t have a great history with the judges as three of Ugas’ four losses were by split decision — including his defeat to Shawn Porter, his last fight against an upper-crust welterweight. Moreover, his most recent fight against Abel Ramos was deemed a split decision win despite appearing to have dominated him. Thus, Ugas will be thrust into an unenviable position: He either has to KO Pacquiao or win rounds so emphatically that he couldn’t be denied the decision. Like the recent fight between Jermell Charlo and Brian Castano, I believe Ugas will win the fight in the ring, but not by a big enough margin aesthetically to get the outright win.” RON BORGES: PACQUIAO “Ugas had Pacquiao’s hard-earned title belt handed to him. He is about to find out why it was never really his. Pacquiao by one-sided decision or late stoppage.” MARTY MULCAHEY: PACQUIAO UD “Last-minute replacements are notorious for pulling high-level upsets, as Andy Ruiz proved against Anthony Joshua in one of many examples. It is one of the reasons I hesitated picking Manny Pacquiao over Yordenis Ugas, though there are many others most notably Ugas’ fantastic amateur pedigree and current winning streak. However, I am picking Pacquiao with reservations. Most importantly Pacquiao trained for an elite foe and no matter what Ugas may say his training could not match the magnitude of this opportunity. While Ugas is really good at using his advantage in height, I think Pacquiao’s direct down the middle arrow like attacks will find their way to the target. This fight may turn into a chess match, so Pacquiao’s flashier blows and higher work rate will win the day in a close but unanimous decision.” MICHAEL WOODS: PACQUIAO SD “Yordenis Ugas is going to win rounds, plenty of them. For Manny fans unaware, know it now: Ugas is a different animal than Spence, and does some things better than Errol. Now, this fight is a battle of mobility—whose feet are functioning better? We don’t fathom Manny ever looking old in the ring, but what if this is the night where his legs act like they are 42 ½ years old? I’m trying to tell you; this one is going to be won by a 1–2-point margin on cards. Pacquiao by split decision.” MICHAEL MONTERO: PACQUIAO UD “Yordenis Ugas is a solid fighter and will look to play spoiler against Manny Pacquiao. But the lack of punch output and fight-changing power will cost him against the Filipino legend. Pacquiao’s angles, explosiveness and speed will surprise Ugas in the early rounds. By the time the Cuban catches up, he’ll be well behind on the cards. Manny will slow down late, but it’ll be too little too late from Ugas. Gimme Manny Pacquiao by unanimous decision.” NORM FRAUENHEIM: UGAS UD “It’s impossible to dislike Manny Pacquiao. He’s a good guy in a bad business. But likability doesn’t win fights. Nobody beats time, not even Pacquiao. In his day, he would have beaten Ugas the way he beat Joshua Clottey. In his day, he would have beaten Errol Spence Jr. the way he beat Oscar De La Hoya. But that day has passed for a legend who will be 43 on December 17. The opponent really doesn’t matter. It’s Ugas instead of the injured Spence. It could have been Keith Thurman in a rematch. Thurman lost a split decision to Pacquiao in the Filipino’s last outing. That was 25 months ago. Guess here: Thurman would win and so will Ugas. It might be controversial. Sentiment has driven the betting and might influence the judging. But Ugas is a capable welterweight, a fact proven in his controversial loss by split decision to Shawn Porter in March 2019. Time is Ugas’ advantage. He’ll use it in a waiting game, forcing Pacquiao to step inside in a risky pursuit that will leave the Filipino fatigued and — in the end — a narrow loser on all three cards.”
BOXING INSIDERS CHRIS ALGIERI (FORMER WBO JUNIOR WELTERWEIGHT TITLEHOLDER): PACQUIAO MD “Interesting and fortuitous replacement. Ugas was obviously preparing for his own fight but is also a very viable opponent in terms of the welterweight landscape. That being said stylistically Ugas is VERY different than Spence and is by no means an easy fight for anybody – Pacquiao included. Ugas is a long counter puncher who is quite economical. Very different than the offensive machine that is Spence. There were parts of Spence’s game that would allow Manny to land his vaunted left hand. Ugas will be a bit trickier to find in my opinion. The more Ugas is able to slow the pace and use his length and counterpunching ability the better he’ll do. Ultimately, I think he’ll have trouble with the off-rhythm timing of Pacquiao and once the Filipino legend finds his groove the output will be overwhelming. I could see Pacquiao dropping Ugas but he’ll likely hear the final bell. Big question is always: What is left? Can Pacquiao go to the well once again? Also, the psychological aspect of the opponent change – will he be as motivated? I got Pacquiao by majority decision.” DUKE MCKENZIE (FORMER THREE-DIVISION TITLEHOLDER/TV ANALYST): PACQUIAO TKO “Manny Pacquiao will obviously be bitterly disappointed not to be fighting Errol Spence but the show must go on and because he is the consummate professional a change of opponent shouldn’t be a problem. WBA champion Yordenis Ugas is a late replacement but looks tailor made for the evergreen Pac Man. Ugas simply doesn’t have the know how to win this one; flat-footed, low work rate and not a big puncher. All of that works in Pacquiao’s favor. My pick is Pacquiao by late stoppage.” RICKY HATTON (FORMER TWO-WEIGHT TITLEHOLDER): PACQUIAO “Manny will be disappointed about the late change of opponent. He’s been training for a southpaw in Spence and the change of style with Ugas is not ideal for him, but I don’t think Manny will be fazed. Ugas is the world champion, so it’s a credible fight. I hope Errol makes a speedy recovery and we can see him back in action soon. Ugas is not in the same league as Spence and was beaten by Porter, so I expect Manny to win by late stoppage or points.” KATHY DUVA (PROMOTER, MAIN EVENTS): PACQUIAO UD “Well, I’m still picking Manny, but I won’t watch this one. I think Manny wins a comfortable decision. Ugas has youth, size, speed and more recent activity on his side, though he has been off for nearly a year. He has never been in a really big fight and he has never beaten a top pound-for-pound opponent. I expect that Pacquiao will be able to handle him.” JOLENE MIZZONE (MATCHMAKER, MAIN EVENTS): PACQUIAO UD “I have to go with Pacquiao on this one. I just think he has way too much experience for Ugas. When fighting Pacquiao, you need to make adjustments and I don’t think Ugas will be able to do that.” CAMILLE ESTEPHAN (PROMOTER, EYE OF THE TIGER): PACQUIAO UD “Although Ugas can be dangerous with his wild punches and pressure, I think Manny Pacquiao’s footwork and pace will be way too much for him. I see a unanimous decision for Pacquiao.” STEVE FARHOOD (TV ANALYST): PACQUIAO PTS “Pacquiao on points. Too quick. Too shifty. Too left-handed. Too smart.” MIKAEL ZEWSKI (WELTERWEIGHT CONTENDER): PACQUIAO KO 11 “I think Manny was getting ready for a very tough fight against Spence, so he’s going to be in great shape. Ugas is underrated, Pacman can’t take him lightly, but I go with Manny Pacquiao KO 11.” RAUL MARQUEZ (FORMER WORLD CHAMPION/COMMENTATOR): PACQUIAO UD “If Father Time doesn’t catch up to Pac Man he’ll pick Ugas apart. Quick feet, in and out movements, angles, attack, fast combinations and sharp counters. Manny wins a unanimous decision.” RUDY HERNANDEZ (TRAINER): PACQUIAO UD “Not the fight we wanted but seeing Pacquiao fight is good enough for me. I won’t be able to watch it live but it’s Manny Pacquiao. I’m buying the fight. Manny Pacquiao is a fighter who trains hard and is always in shape regardless of who he’s fighting. Ugas is a dark horse in most fights. Pacquiao will be the fighter pushing the action and will have a good night beating Ugas by unanimous decision.” ALEX STEEDMAN (COMMENTATOR): PACQUIAO PTS “This is far removed from the potential history maker we were looking forward to but Ugas is good last-minute opponent and probably a reliable guide as to where Pacquiao is as a fighter these days. Ugas is strong both physically and mentally but under normal circumstances shouldn’t be good or quick enough to beat Pacquiao. If he’s properly focused and still has the stuff, Manny wins by decision.” JOHN SCULLY (TRAINER): PACQUIAO UD “The biggest issue for Pacquiao is going to be the emotional and phycological let down from having such a big fight called off so suddenly. If Pacquiao can maintain motivation for Ugas, his conditioning and still formidable skills should see him win a very solid unanimous decision. I expect a stiff challenge and a very game effort from Ugas, but if Pacquiao is still Pacquiao, then I see him still being too sharp and versatile.” Final Tally: Pacquiao 19-1 https://www.ringtv.com/625773-fight-picks-manny-pacquiao-vs-yordenis-ugas/
