Ah yes. Middleweights like Sam McVea, and Denver Ed Martin. If it was 20 rounds I'd probably have picked decision, but over the oddball 35 round distance, him winning by stoppage is very likely
Neither man ever went that distance,so given that a 37 years old Johnson was clearly in front after 20rds I don't see why Willard would win.
Yeah but if you watch Willard vs Moran, you notice Willard pick up the pace in a shorter fight were vs Johnson, Willard fought at a very slow pace to conserve his energy. Johnson was winning in front because Willard was not pushing the issue in a 45 round fight.
Johnson, probably by late stoppage. Willard fought smart fight against old, fat Johnson - but this gameplan wouldn't work against prime Jack.
I don’t know that Willard could vary his strategy/pace so much even given a shorter route. The 45 rd limit set for their actual fight was tailored for and meant to solely advantage Willard, certainly not Johnson. Basically, the plan was to withstand the punishment and eventually outlast Jack which is more or less how it went down. Willard did well though, stepping it up incrementally as Johnson began to wilt. Any time before Johnson wilts, Lil Arthur easily outboxes Jess. Not sure if even prime Johnson can put Jess out though. If I were Johnson, I wouldn’t agree to anything beyond 25 rds with 20 rds being the most preferable. Over that limit Jack’s stamina is good to go, ensuring him of a clear decision with enough rds to allow for the outside chance of even stopping Willard in the very late rds.
Have you seen the fight? Johnson was in bad condition, compare that to how he looked against Jeffries.
Willard would never outbox or KO Johnson if he was not out of shape, let alone older, & the heat did not help him. His size & strength notwithstanding, Willard could never "step it up" without wearing Jack down. I do not even know how any distance fight would make Jess the favorite-if J.J. was in peak condition.
Johnson is more proven over longer distances with quite a few 20 rounders under his belt Willard has a couple.I think a prime Johnson would have carved up Willard a lot more I see no reason to suppose prime for prime Willard weathers the trip better than Jack .The Havana fight was always geared towards a Willard win, a 37 years old dissipated champion in hot sun over 45 rds.The dice were loaded against Johnson.
Just a few more random ramblings re this scenario. Prior to his actually facing Big Jess, Johnson was described as “Hog Fat” more than once. Fat shaming wasn’t a thing back in those days. Johnson’s well padded derrière and flanks spilling over his trunks told the story. Official Havana hog fat weight 225 lb. Since Reno John Arthur traded up from a six pack to a far more convenient single keg. Willard said he expected to take a beating for the first 10-15 rds and part of his “strategy”, if you will, was specifically training to absorb said beating. Interesting, more than one prospective opponent of Lil Arthur commented along similar lines about taking and absorbing severe punishment, Hart and Jeffries to name two. Note to self: Papa Jack could really dish it. Also, as a tidbit, there’s a possible question as to exactly how hot it was in Havana that day. Fight kicked off at about 1.30 pm, so near enough to peak temp time for the day. However, average temp range for Autumn/Fall in Havana is supposed to be 77 f to 88 f. The aforementioned upper limit is hot enough but maybe it wasn’t as hot as legend has had it (viz: 103 f) though, whatever was the general temp on the day it was likely hotter at ground zero in the ring with canvas reflecting heat. Hard to gage as per clothing, formality rating higher than practicality back in the day. Suffice to say, as much as can be gleaned from the films, it appeared somewhat hotter in Reno on July 4 1910. The cowboy was quoted as saying it was hotter than hell in the Havana ring. Then again, until the films resurfaced, Jess was credited as levelling Johnson with his reputed uppercut, obviously channeling the same punch that reportedly killed the unfortunate Bull Young. Old school reports were nothing if not littered with hyperbole and liberal filling of “gaps” by scribes who didn’t actually see the fight go down. As I said, Jess does nothing with Johnson while Jack still has due stamina but it becomes problematic if Jack starts to gas, even if only via his own exertions, while Jess still remains upright and with a modicum of viability that could spark up upon Johnson’s own faltering. So I still think the limit could have relevance. Prime or not, Johnson will not enjoy the same luxury of shoving Jess around as he did Jeffries nor will he be able to use his most potent weapon, the uppercut (Jeffries got hit with too many to count), to as damaging effect so a KO or stoppage prior to Johnson himself beginning to tire isn’t a lock IMO. Nothing to do with skill, just having to deal with greater overall stamina and the resilience of a punching bag. Muse over Ali and Chuvalo fighting an extra 5 to 10 rds (20 rds to 25 rds respectively)? Sure, there would be some pacing adjustments but skill disparity notwithstanding, at some point George’s fortes, stamina and resilience, may become the defining factors as they more often were in the old school era of relatively extended duration schedules.
IMHO, Prime Johnson wins this easily, by decision if it's a slow paced affair, but Johnson by stoppage if Jess gets frisky. Johnson was faster, more skilled, had equal stamina to prime Jess, and was probably about the same in strength as well. I don't see a path to victory for Jess against a prime Johnson.
