The British boxing establishment's narrative after Usyk's clear and convincing victory over AJ is that AJ blew it by not imposing his advantages in weight, strength and power on Usyk, rather than Usyk being the better man and having too much for AJ, even as the B-side in AJ's backyard. McCracken designed the gameplan that many of us believed gave AJ the best chance of retaining his titles: box cautiously behind a jab, stay on your feet and get a Matchroom decision. This backfired and AJ officially lost 8-4 so there is immense pressure to switch to plan B: jump on Usyk early and try to take him out. Although there are big risks associated with this, there are many sound reasons why AJ will attempt it: 1. Plan A has failed, so why not try it? 2. There is a certain logic that AJ should seek to impose his physical advantages (and he may get a gift stoppage, KD's or a legit KO in the process) 3. The British boxing establishment, the fans and even the judges expect and want to see AJ "give it a go" next time, win lose or draw, and if he doesn't and fails anyway he will lose a huge amount of respect again 4. AJ has strongly implied that he will be more aggressive and fight dirtier next time (as has Hearn) building expectations that he will do this 5. A draw isn't good enough this time: Usyk would retain his titles and it's harder to get at least 7 rounds on two judges' cards than to get at least 6 on two, making a non-pointfighting strategy more relatively attractive 6. AJ can't be any more negative and expect to do better: he outpointed an untrained, undisciplined, 284 lbs Andy Ruiz while on the backfoot for 12 rounds, landing 107 punches to Ruiz's 60 but a slobbish Andy Ruiz is no Usyk 7. If the rematch is not in Britain next time then AJ can't expect to get as much support from the officials and the officials didn't give him enough support to be gifted the win in Britain last time If we see a more aggressive, possibly heavier AJ in the rematch then the chances of him gassing earlier, getting hurt and being stopped increase considerably, especially considering his precarious mental state.
The whole reason AJ sat back was because Usyk was able to use his superior movement to expose AJ's stiffness. In other words, he had the right game plan in the first fight. More aggression will not solve anything. It will simply give Usyk more opportunities to punish AJ and take him out.
Problem is he can't... He doesn't know how to be physical like Fury Doesn't have the stamina, balls or chin either AJ needs to learn how to throw looping shots that will catch Usyk ring circling away and pressure him in a smart way. There is no one simple answer. Little subtle things can make or break this fight. AJ looked strong mid fight, only because Usyk was taking a round off here and there...even when Usyk was taking rounds off he stayed very close to AJ which was odd. Didn't want to show any weakness. The moment he does show weakness someone like AJ will see red and could do lots of damage. It's really down to AJ being able to clip him. Footwork is everything in boxing and this fight will showcase that time and time again. Even Fury will have issues with Usyk's movement early doors, so what can AJ do? nothing.
The biggest problem is not a physical one but mental. Aj can do better in the rematch but so can Usyk. The strategy requires AJ not to gas which will leave him vulnerable and Usyk isn't just going to stand in front of him so I'm not sure it is the answer. The way I see it is boxing really a mental game requiring physical attributes and if the mentality is weak the I just can't see how Joshua reverses the first fight outcome. The only way is if the judges rob Usyk and that can only happen if it is a lot closer. So maybe just adapt the strategy from the first fight and be more active rather than try and bull rush is the solution but I'm not convinced at this point in time.
don't forget that Usyk admitted that he was buzzed a couple of times by Joshua. anything can happen in the ring. I am not ruling out AJ winning the rematch. It just takes one shot to land right with enough juice on it and any one can go.
The best odds I've seen for the rematch thus far are: Usyk 5/8 or 61.5% Draw 20/1 or 4.8% AJ 2/1 or 33.3%
He will try to be more agressive and go to the body. Here are the possible outcomes from this Joshua lets his hands go more and tries to rough Usyk up, opens up some gashes on Usyk early on, gets outboxed and countered later on as he gasses but ends up stopping Usyk on cuts after the 6th Or scenario 2 Usyk struggles early but adapts by round 4 and starts walking Joshua into counters more and more down the stretch and as Joshua gasses, Usyk opens up more which then Usyk stops him by the 7th. The latter is far more likely. I see Usyk coming out the winner.
More aggressive = Bodybuilders suicide. I see him misfiring dozens of times as he wanted to hit a phantom and I see him gassing within the 5th. Then I see after the 5th an Area 51 secret project codenamed U.S.Y.K. bombing Bodybuilder with tons of photonic combos knocking him out merciless. In the end I see Bodybuilder trying to get up like Rahman vs Lewis II or like Tyson vs Tokio Douglas but... ...nothing. It's ovah. U.S.Y.K. KO6 - KO7
I think he'll behave the same, but if he lands anything close to a good shot on Usyk he'll go in for the 30 punch flurry as it's his only chance. If you watch the fight, the second AJ landed anything on Usyk, Usyk's strategy totally changed and he was looking for huge counters off of AJ's follow up. Usyk is already expecting the careless flurry after a decent shot is landed. Still, this is HW boxing. I don't see why AJ can't score himself a british stoppage. Foot tangle -> stumble -> AJ throws 20 punches that miss or are blocked -> ref has seen enough.
I don't think AJ threw a single combination in the first fight so AJ attempting to flurry after landing a shot would be a significant tactical change which would entail eating counters from Usyk. We saw Usyk's shots shake AJ up, especially the big left hand in the 3rd round. And one round of throwing extended combos against pudding Pulev had AJ gassed and needing three rounds off to get a second wind. Some people commented on AJ's improved stamina in the Usyk fight but they neglect several factors: 1. Mature AJ was the lightest he'd ever been aside from Ruiz 2 2. AJ overwhelmingly threw jabs and never threw a combination 3. Usyk isn't a big heavyweight who is going to apply intense pressure and maul 4. Usyk doesn't have a big KO punch: this would have reduced pressure on AJ and meant that the shots didn't drain him as much In spite of these factors, AJ still gassed in the championship rounds and looked in agony as he sat on his stool for 3:30 after the end of the 12th. It's debatable whether AJ would have made it up for a hypothetical 13th and highly unlikely that he would have finished 15. Going into the rematch, AJ is under even more pressure (no rematch clause, two losses in a row and three losses in his last five fights is a disaster) and he will be less confident, knowing that Usyk can both outbox him and drop/stop him (Ruiz 1) so his gas tank will drain faster. If he's more aggressive on top of that, it will very likely go from bad to worse.
