The Mikey Garcia bout is a bad example. He literally came in puffy, disinterested and out of shape. As far as Astrolabio goes that was a legit upset. The flaw with your examples is that you are comparing old Mikey Garcia and really old Guillermo Rigondeaux to prime top pound for pound fighter Naoya Inoue. If Martin or Astrolabio had been fighting the P4P best in the world they would have been destroyed. Butler has no shot.
Inoue vs Butler's winner will be the first time a boxer below lightweight is undisputed in the four belt era. The fight is a huge deal, and between Inoue, who topped The Ring pound for pound list, and a multi-time champion in Butler.
As soon as I saw Garcia in the ring before the fight I gave Martin a decent chance. I only gave Astrolabio about a 5% chance. Even 5% (1 in 20) is much more than I give Butler. I would say maybe 1 in 100 for Butler.
Worst undisputed fight ever, even worse than Haney vs Kambosos, everyone already knows what the outcome will be It doesn’t matter how much Inoue’s fanboys try to build up Butler, everyone knows Butler is getting washed