*** Official Erik Morales v. David Diaz Analysis and Prediction Thread ***

1. What are the best aspects of each fighter's game? How about their weaknesses?

2. What will they need to bring to the table to win against the other?

3. How will the fight most likely play out? Who will win at Lightweight?


Time to do some serious analytical work on this one.

Let's do this properly!

God knows there are some top analysts on this site. :good

 

I am a Morales fan. I like the way Morales fights with total commitment, hitting left, right, left, right, left, whilst standing right in your face. Like all the great Mexicans, he defends by attacking, and keeps bouncing back at you like a yo-yo. His balance is very good, even though it sometimes looks awkward. As is his footwork. He lunges at you and hits the target, and very quickly regains his baalance and carries on. He can take a punch, too! But you feel that behind it all, the engine of his style and success is his great heart. What a brave an honest fighter! What a great man...he was.

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But does the current Morales still have it - does he still have his great heart? Alas, I don't believe he does. The punches that he receives dishearten him more, they hurt him more. His lower confidence affected his balance and footwork too. He is reticent to commit wholeheartedly, he doesn't float so well either. But then, Pacquiao would dishearten anyone!

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Morales has fought the very best and lost. He knows he wasn't good enough at that level. But in his next fight, he isn't fighting the very best. Diaz will get hit a lot. He doesn't defend well. He is not unpredictable. He is not fast. But he can take a punch and he can also hit back. Diaz will not be KOed by Morales. He might get TKOed though.
Also, he will bank on KOing Morales. It's the only way he can win the fight. He will not outscore Morales, not even the Morales of today.

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What is really worrying me is the weight at which the fight is made. It obviously disfavours Morales. He will not be as fast and as mobile. This is bad news for Morales. I don't know why he would accept to fight at that weight, given that he has been KOed recently. Maybe he thinks that he will still be fast enough.

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Motivation will be the key in this match. This really is about last chance saloon for Morales. He knows he has to win this one. But Diaz in on a winning streak. His morale will be relatively higher.

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I don't know what to predict. Either Diaz KO or Morales TKO/UD. If it's Diaz UD, then it's a boring fight and Morales is truly shot; better for him to be KO'ed all guns blazing than to run away all night. Morales is not what he used to be, but this is his last chance. Diaz isn't that good but he can punch and he is looking forward. Unless we see something that looks like the old Morales, Diaz will beat him. But does he still have it in him to come back? I think not. I think the motivation is gone. The weight at which this fight is made is the biggest giveaway for me. Saying that, I would love to see the old Morales go out at least one more time!

Let's hear form the analysts now.

 

go on Golden Boy, impress us with your analysis of this fight! Chance to make a reputation for yourself!...

 

where are the analysts? Analysing, I hope...because there's a vote running for the best of them, in the lounge!

 

let's hear the analysis, please...why Diaz UD?:think what is the determining factor for you?

 

Thank you for your contribution!

 

I hope you're right! Thanks for the answer!:good

 

so why Diaz UD/SD? What makes the biggest difference to you, in Diaz' favour?