If Wilder fought Wlad instead of Fury 1, Wlad would have been 42 and retired over a year and a half. Difficult to say, 50/50 would be my guess. Peak for peak Wlad is a huge favourite, though Wilder would have a remote punchers chance.
The problem with Wilder is that he telegraphs too much and he has trouble dealing with a long jab. FFS Gerald Washington had him reeling all over the ring with just the jab. What's gonna happen is that he's going to try launch that right, Wlad will see it coming and he will counter him cold. They actually sparred and there were plenty of stories going around as to how Wilder got taken to pieces and tucked up into bed for a nap. Sure, Wilder always has a chance with his ballistic right hand. But Wlad has much more of a chance with his superior boxing, footwork and timing.
Wilder loses to most versions of Wladmir. He has a big x factor with his looping right hand, and Wladmir has chin issues, but Wladmir is a significantly better boxer in so many categories and hits pretty hard himself.
My money's on Wlad, but, I mean, weak chin and all, there's a non-zero chance Wilder gets lucky and takes his head off.
Wilder has sight punchers chance but 99% of the time Wlad late KO especially once he got with Steward
