Draw. Machen beats him the first time, loses a decision after being knocked down in the rematch. Baer's fights with Tommy Farr are the closest thing to this hypothetical.
Bear is simultaneously 1 of the most dangerous & vulnerable HW champs of all time. I think either Machen outboxes him to a lopsided dec., or Baer catches him @some point & flattens him. There's very little likelihood of any result outside of either extreme IMO.
Machen is either KTFO or he outboxes Baer to a 1 sided decision win. Max Baer is more powerful than Johannson but not as good a boxer as Sonny Liston. Liston won a decision vs Machen and Ingo KTFO Machen. Baer hit hard enough to flatten Machen but didn't box good enough to decision him. Machen could make it to the end if he fought defensively, but not too defensively to give away rounds. If he got to aggressive with Baer, a single right hand could seal his doom.
I just have a feeling I can’t escape that this is what will happen despite Machen probably being favoured.
Makes no sense to even have Machen as a favorite. The best of Baer beat an underperforming Schmeling and a past prime Baer beat Farr. He's got what it takes to beat Machen who against a similar type of fighter holds ko win over a past prime Valdes and a draw with Williams. He has the skills to beat Baer but Baer also has what it takes to beat Eddie. It's strange that so many have this as so one sided.
If Machen can avoid Liston for 12 rounds, I don't think he's going to be caught by Baer's telegraphed and crude punches.
Farr and Schmeling avoided Louis' right for 15 and 12 rounds, Baer got them though (KD against Farr). By the same logic, Johansen shouldn't have touched Eddie either. It's fine to think Machen can win this, against many versions of Baer he probably would, but against the best version it's 55/45 for Baer. The only way this fight is easy is if Machen gets caught early. Otherwise they both have to work.
Someone able to avoid Sonny for 12 rounds shouldn’t be able to be cold-clocked by Ingo in a round either, sure Eddie could probably avoid Max for 12 rounds if he fully committed to survival like he did against Liston, but if he actually tries winning I can’t see him avoiding Max’s hammer for long.
