Kelly Pavlik Can Handle Hopkins, But Can Jack Loew?

great posts guys, good thread

 

Kolya, whats up man?

 

Simply put: Pavlik possible gameplans are limited by his pretty simply, but very very effective physichal, jab-based, high paced style. Changing anything would be foolish: he's got to try breaking Hopkins down, I don't see any other way, B-Hop is too smart, you can outbox, just outwork him.

But unfortunately for Kelly, Bernie can take you jab away and punish you for predictable punches, and I don't know if Pavlik can do anything at all if he can no longer set the pace with the jab. What happens then?

But hey, Margarito didn't change his style much - just kept putting on pressure and pressure on Cotto until his physical force and stamina started to overtake the fight he was losing - and won via TKO. I think that's the game plan Pavlik should use. Do what you can do the best. He was right back in the fight with the jab just 2 minutes after Taylor almost stopped him, and Pavlik won the very next round. Why should he change that? Pressure, pressure and pressure. He can lose the first 5 rounds and still win the fight on points if Hopkins' stamina and punch output will be an issue. Or maybe on TKO, but I don't see that.

 

Great post BigBone:good Only I see a T/KO as a probability, 10th round to be exact:good

 

I go back to when Manny was saying the same thing about Loew before the first Taylor fight. It made Manny look stupid after Loew came in with a better game plan and schooled mannys so called champion taylor. Loew has showcased that he puts together a different game plan for every fighter and as long as Pavlik sticks to the plan he wins.

 

Has Roach agreed to train The Executioner?

Given all the stuff he said before... I just assumed he wasn't gonna do it. :huh

 

loew has shown he can adapt quickly to he sees in the round.

i think pavlik ko's hopkins and it will be the age difference and workrate/power that will be a large factor. will happen late in the fight since hopkins early on is still damn good.

two moves i see pavlik using a lot to win.

1. flyod mayweather style forearms in your face/under the chin. pavlik is not afraid to take close up punches as hopkins biggest power comes from his snake like strike where he leaps across the distance to land. up close in a booth, pavlik will hit hopkins to the body while coping a few to the head. at the same time i think he will also stick his long forearm/s under hopkins chin/on the chest. really make it a rough house inside fight.

2. from a distance, pavlik will spend time practicing the james toney slip and counter right. we saw pavlik do this against lockett with one of the final punches that dropped the welshman. YES! i know lockett is not a patch on hopkins, but nevertheless pavlik was happy with that move and if he works on it in the gym it will serve him well against hopkins lunging lead right hand. pavlik with his height and reach advantage, plus pretty good defence (yes his defence is pretty good) will try to time hopkins by slipping and coming back with a right hand or uppercut since hopkins often keeps his face almost paralell with the floor.

these tactics wont work as well early on, so pavlik will throw a lot more straight jabs and right hands. but once hopkins slows down the two things mentioned above will be the tactics pavlik will most likely use in order to get a ko.

well, that's just my two cents.

 

Excellent post! Pavlik has already stated that he isn't going to change what he does for Hopkins. He said, "I fight one way. I move forward throwing punches and win." I like the Cotto/Margarito comparison, but there is one big difference between Tony and Pavlik. Kelly's footwork is on a whole differrent level compared to Margo. During Cotto/Margarito I was literally screaming at the TV: "Step right god damnit! Step right" Tony never did! He could have ended the fight 2 rounds sooner if he would have closed Cotto's escape route.

When Pavlik gets a guy on the ropes he uses subtle, highly under-rated foot work to keep him there. Although I see BHop giving Pavlik fits for the first 3 or 4 rounds, I also see Pavlik forcing Hopkins to fight 3 minutes of every round. I doubt if Hopkins can keep up that kind of pace for more than 4 rounds. When he starts gassing out, Pavlik will take over. I fully expect Pavlik to add BHop to the ever growing list of guys who hadn't been stopped until Pavlik stopped them. That's no disrespect to Bernard. I just think that Hops is a classic case of the guy who stayed around one fight to long.

As far as Jack Leow's roll, three fights come to mind. It was Leow who told Kelly that McKart was holding his left elbow to far from his body, and to throw a lead right up under Bronco's elbow. Kelly followed instructions, and that right hand to the body proved to be the beginning of the end for Bronco. Jack devised the plan to out bully the bully in the Miranda fight. And Jack devised the plan to capatilize on Taylor's flaws of holding his left to low and going straight back to the ropes. Against BHop he'll be a major asset like he always is.

 

Im sure they have plenty of footage on Hopkins ..Loew doesn't seem to be the type of trainer to overlook anyone .

 

That's a good point. It seems like Team Pavlik trains with the same intensity for a Zertuche or a Lockett that they do for a Jermain Taylor. I can't imagine them being foolish enough to take BHop lightly.

 

Nothing much, you?

 

Winky was shorter than Hopkins and he was too thick and tight at 170 against him. Hops neutralised Wink's right jab with his baiting tactics and worked on the inside with damaging, sharp and short hooks and uppercuts. Kelly Pavlik is taller, has the reach advantage, bangs harder and should be loose to let em go hard and at a fast pace ( b'cause he's much younger). BIG DIFFERENCE. Oh, manipulation is a beautiful thing...

 

I've noticed a lot of people are picking Hopkins. But, can Hopkins handle Pavlik's jab? If Pavlik keeps his jab going, you just might see Hopkins get knocked out and hurt bad.

 

I think Calzaghe landed ZERO jabs in the first round so this will be an interesting comparison.

 

BIG DIFFERENCE? In terms of what? Nobody knows at this point who poses a more difficult challenge, Wright or Pavlik. Both are challenging fighters. Wright fought at a very fast pace against Hopkins. Have you seen the fight? MUCH faster than Pavlik will be able to produce. You can be sure of that. BTW, didn't Top Rank turn down Winky as an opponent for Pavlik? Apparently Winky isn't a walk in the park... Hmm? Yeah.