As brilliant as Armstrong was, and he was brilliant, I don't see him beating Duran at any weight. Duran's physical strength alone would pose problems for Armstrong, who relied on being able to muscle and maneuver his victims into perfect position to unload on them. Much in the same vein as Duran, with the problem for Armstrong being that Duran was a bigger and physically stronger man than him, with more speed, athleticism, and an even more sophisticated defense (and Armstrong's defense was quite good) and above all... Duran had a HUGE edge in firepower. If Duran's on his game, i don't see how Armstrong wins at any weight. He doesn't have the right style to beat a prime Duran, nor the size.
I was leaning towards Duran but thought it may be a close run thing..but your post has made me think perhaps it's a lot more in his favour. But it's still up there with my fantasy fights.
I gotta pick Duran. Both are extremely tough, it would be a brutal war, but Duran"s defense edges it.