I agree with your analysis. Another factor is Whyte as tough as he can be is a bit chinny when hit right.
There are clearly some unanswered questions as regards Itauma but he is a very exciting talent as a fast south paw skilfull boxer puncher.
No secret that I think this is too soon for Itauma if Whyte is near his prime in which I suspect he may be.
I simply see Moses Itauma steamrolling Whyte. Whyt even in his prime could be hurt/dropped/pummeled etc...........he's older, slower, near the end, shopworn and going up against a large, fast for a HW,, hardhitting (so far) southpaw that uses angles. I'm still not yet sold on Moses but I see this being a brutal fight for Whyte.
Whyte looks in great shape but I think he is getting massively hyped leading into this. He has not looked good for 3 or 4 years now. There's a chance he old man's Itauma but I think this will fight will go to script.
Itauma in the first 3, he might get caught once or twice early, but I can see it being a shootout while it lasts and then Whyte walking into something.
If this was Chisora who Moses was facing instead, especially if it was Chisora who was the same age as Whyte is now, I could easily see him weathering the early storm and answering at least some of those unanswered questions about Moses many believe Whyte might on Saturday night. But it's much harder for me to envisage Whyte doing so. Whyte's only real shot of winning is via catching Moses with a huge left hook
Itauma KO 6th Round. He will be practicing his upper cuts that is for sure, its the only punch proven to switch Whyte off at the circuit board.
Hyped? He is like a 9 to 1 underdog and everyone, boxers, pundits, commentators are all picking Itauma via whitewash.
Hats off to Whyte for getting in such great shape. But I still think Itauma knocks him out within 6 rounds.