Great question. I think the journey to heavy and back had depleted Roy enough that he was no longer superman. Tarver could have got the win in fight 1 and I think given the same opportunities Hopkins would probably have enough to pressure Roy and score to at least grab a points win. Johnson would stop Roy in his next fight and Hopkins was a more refined version of Johnson. Cuter, dirtier better defensively and crafty with his attacks. We know triangles don't always work but years later Hopkins would box circles around Tarver. I think the timing was on Bhops side. Shorn of his brilliant speed and a touch of power and with his reflexes slowing Jones wouldn't have beaten Hopkins at this point.
This is right around when the wheels finally fell off for Jones. But, he still might win a decision here. Jones wins anytime, at any weight in between 1991-2003.
The 1st Tarver fight was Razor thin, I had Jones winning 115-113. Had that been Hopkins moving up 2 weight divisions I think he would have had a great shot at beating Roy, especially after how drained Roy looked in that 1st fight with Tarver. In hindsight though, I think most of us would have picked Roy to pull off a decision, but a Hopkins upset wouldnt have been out of the question..
I don't know but I do know that Hopkins has a better chance at victory than he did when they actually fought.
This might well have been the first 'right' time for Hopkins to catch Jones. Hopkins still had a lot left in the tank. And this was the beginning of RJJs steep - and long lasting - decline.