I think this fight would be tougher than many would think, Hrgovic doesn't have knockout power and it's hard to predict the winner, but it would be realistic to expect Parker to be the favorite...
I think Hrgovic could have the better jab but his stamina will be an issue. Its a close fight, I'm slightly favouring Parker against Hrgovic.
If Parker gets back to a sensible weight and boxes points, this would be a UD all day long. If he fights like a ****** as he did against Wardley? Parker probably still wins the decision, but it'd be much less comfortable. Parker fighting dumb and bulking up unnecessarily takes him from a legit contender to barely a fringe one - it's a major mistake.
I think Hrgovic is better, I've always favoured him on points against Parker. Parker wouldn't have scraped by Zhang had he fought him 19 months prior and a stone lighter when he was an unknown quantity, as Hrgovic did. Hrgovic's Zhang win was a fair bit better given the full context and that win represents both men's zenith in terms of quality of opponent beaten. Maybe Parker would have beaten a 39.5 year old 3 loss Joyce and maybe Hrgovic would have lost to the 37 year old unbeaten version. But what we know is that Parker was losing wide and got KO'd in 11, whereas Hrgovic outboxed Joyce over 10 to a clear decision. Against Dubois, Hrgovic was 5-1 up after 6 rounds. Parker wouldn't have been that far ahead after 6 against Dubois, if he was ahead at all. Hrgovic beat Parker in the amateurs and was the more accomplished amateur boxer, for what that's worth. Parker was 2-2 with Fa in the amateurs and had a close fight with him in the pros. Parker avenged his amateur loss to Zhang in the pros. Hrgovic is 2.5 inches taller and has 6 inches of reach on Parker. Given Parker hasn't stopped any of his 10 best opponents, he would be extremely unlikely to stop an iron-chinned Hrgovic and Parker would be the more likely of the two to hit the canvas. Parker is slightly older, has much more wear and four losses to Hrgovic's one, so I think Hrgovic would have to be a solid favourite now.
Hrgovic is better, but he has no gas tank and doesn't have the power to bail himself out. That's his main problem. Hrgovic is also better than Dubois, but we saw what happened there. Of course Hrgovic beat Parker in the amateurs, and would almost certainly beat Parker over 3 or 5 rounds now, or last year, or whenever. But sadly (as one who has been high on Hrgovic for a long time) he has no stamina. He could easily win 5 rounds clearly, and then gas and get stopped late or decisioned 7-5. Parker's stamina is not amazing either, but it's a sight better than Hrgovic.
I see Hrgovic's high workrate as a bad style match up for Parker. Hrgovic probably couldn't knock Parker out but I'd pick him to win a fairly wide decision.
