Jon is a smart calculated guy. He isnt going to be taking fights that he doesnt feel extremely confident about at this stage of his career.
The obvious answer is that Jones takes Perreira dow and finishes him. Or at the very least wins a boring points victory by controlling him against the cage or on the floor. But I thoght Aspinall wouldn't have much problem taking Gane down, but the one time he tried he was nowhere close. And even a less than 100% Perriera was never taken down once by Ankaleav (controlled against the cage, though) and he will have improved since then and continue doing so. A fight against Jones would be his third in a row against a top grappler, so that will be the thing he's worked absolutely the most on for the last year and half or so if this fight happens next summer. So wouldn't be shocked if Perriera won.