Heavyweight Seeded Tournament: Who Wins?

Where does foresight factor into your current understanding of the crop of heavyweights?

Do you have any foresight?

 

The same place as proof and grounding do in yours, apparently.

I see potential in lots of fighters - sometimes loads of potential.

And some of those go on to achieve loads... some go on to avoid challenges whilst big claims continue to be made... and others get humbled by weaknesses nobody saw coming and never make it.

Assuming someone who's never beaten a fit and game international level journeyman yet can beat fringe contenders is silly.

Stating with certainty that a prospect who's only beaten shot or domestic level fighters would "flay" a legit top tier P4P all time great? Bat**** insane.

 

Dubois seems to have some mental frailness. Up against Wardley?

How's his stamina? How's his chin? How's his determination when a fight gets tough? How's his recovery? We know literally none of that. Yes, his power and speed is real, but like all fighters, he'll have some weaknesses. We just haven't seem them yet.

 

Kabayel UD. Would be an absolutely fantastic fight though. Both guys have a nice set of skills. I see Hrgovic taking the first 3-4 rounds until the body shots start adding up, forcing him to slow down, at which point Kabayel outboxes him to a clean decision.

Bakole KO. Here's my logic. Bakole is proven in that we know what he is and what he isn't. We know he's got that warrior heart, we know he's got a solid chin (I don't think the KO by Parker means anything; Bakole tanked a bunch of huge bombs from Ajagba), we know he's got a nice offensive arsenal and big power, and we know he can fight 10 rounds (I refer anyone who says he doesn't have stamina back to the Ajagba fight). Ituama... maybe he's got a weak chin; maybe he gasses quickly; maybe he's mentally weak when things aren't going his way. Given how much we don't know about Ituama, I'm betting on Bakole to expose his chin.

Dubois UD. Okolie will stink it out to survive, but Dubois is far more proven and will take the decision.

Wardley KO. Wardley can use the strategy I assumed Kabayel would use but didn't. Get on a bike, pop jabs, and run for 3-4 rounds. Once Zhang is huffing and puffing, move in for the kill.

Ok then we come down to Kabayel vs. Bakole, which, hey, happens to be a fight I'd love to see. The judges can take a break, they won't be needed here, whoever wins, it will be via KO. My pick is Kabayel by mid-round KO. The fight goes mostly like the Zhang fight, except Kabayel does take a lot of damage here. Bakole isn't going to be huffing and puffing by round 3.

And now Dubois vs. Wardley. Wardley KO. I'm skeptical of Dubois's chin and mental state. He's a ripe pick of a top guy for Wardley to take apart due to this. Wardley hits just as hard as Dubois but has every intangible that it seems Dubois lacks.

So, our final. Kabayel vs. Wardley. Wardley via KO. This would be a fantastic fight. I think the issue is that Kabayel is another top guy who is a ripe pick for Wardley. And here, the reason is that Kabayel is going to stand in front of Wardley and start a war. Don't start a war with a dude who literally has war in his name. Kabayel's got a nice set of skills, but here's it's Wardley's intangibles combined with his power that are going to take it. I think Wardley is somewhat limited in terms of being green and skill level, but his combo of warrior spirit / meanness in a firefight / power / natural responses in a firefight is off the chart, and at some point Kabayel is going to turn it into a firefight. It'll be a brawl until Wardley gets the KO or stops Kabayel by mid-fight.

Champ -- WARdley.

 

Quarter Finals
(1) Agit Kabayel vs Filip Hrgovic - Kabayel MD/late TKO on cuts
(3) Moses Itauma vs Martin Bakole - Itauma TKO
(4) Daniel Dubois vs Lawrence Okolie - Dubois KO
(2) Fabio Wardley vs Zhilei Zhang - Zhang mid round TKO

Semi Finals
Agit Kabayel vs Moses Itauma - Kabayel SD
Daniel Dubois vs Zhilei Zhang - Dubois late TKO or SD

Final
Kabayel vs Dubois - Kabayel late TKO

 

What do you think about Wardley?

 

Kabayel wins it comfortably in all probability by stoppage every fight .

 

Exactly...

We know he's incredibly dominant against domestic level mediocrity.
We know he's explosive enough to knock out shot gatekeepers and even contenders.

We have no idea what his stamina is like.
His chin hasn't been tested.
His heart is another total unknown.

We don't really even have any idea what his composure is like against a live opponent - does he stay calm, make good decisions and find openings? Or fall apart? What's his ring IQ like when up against a clever opponent?


For all we know, so far, he could have the gastank of Zhilei Zhang, the chin of Amir Khan, and the mental strength of McCall in the Lewis rematch... All of that in one fighter is exceptionally unlikely, but there's as much evidence that it's not as that it is - ie: none at all.


Plus... Will he have the warriors mentality to take the challenges whilst still young, make improvements and become the best he could be (like a Dubois, say, albeit with different strengths and weaknesses) or is he going to go full Gervonta and become so petrified of losing face in defeat that he never fights the most significant opponents of his era?


As you say... We just don't know any of this... And people are able to tear themselves away from licking the windows for long enough to post that such a hugely unproven fighter would beat an ATG like Usyk?

Gawd almighty...

 

This is the problem with a lot of fanboys in general.

They like to hype someone when one hasn’t proven anything. Its the same with sports in general, football you can get hype jobs but its more transparent in boxing as you get a lot more opportunities to prove yourself rather than sit in the shadows whilst fighting second rate pretenders, to create a narrative and an illusion.

I just find it utterly f*****g stupid to suggest someone that unproven and untested could beat Usyk right now.

 

Okolie is good at his awkward style against smaller fighters that don’t have a clue how to fight on the inside.

Billam Smith exploited Okolie’s awkwardness. Kabayel would be lethal.

 

Yeah, Dubois V Wardley is a tough one. Dubois is much more physical and powerful than Parker but I don’t trust Dubois’s chin and heart. Its probs a 50/50 fight.

 

Oh, I think Ituama COULD beat Usyk, but I don't think he WOULD. Hear me out -- Ituama seems to have power like AJ or Dubois, but is so shockingly fast that he's got a chance to get lucky and take out anyone. What's his chance of getting lucky against someone as disciplined as Usyk? Really ****ing low. But it's not zero. Likely outcome is Usyk winning every single round in humiliating fashion.

Wardley would beat Usyk. Why? Nothing logical says this, except **** just keeps happening in his favor it's like the gods want him to be champ. So I think if Wardley fights Usyk, something ridiculous happens like Wardley catches Usyk flush in the jaw with the best punch he's ever thrown, knocks Usyk down, Usyk gets up, then Wardley does the same damn thing again and it's over. Yeah, logical outcome is Usyk wins every round... but logic doesn't seem to be working with Wardley

 

Chin is great (or has been until now) and his heart only makes him quit when he is overwhelmed by almost losing his eye (i am disgusted with anyone questioning that - for example saunders who had the same fortune not much later and somehow didn't continue to fight either...) or by having someone in front of him who beats him every round and he can not reliably hit. He wasn't giving up in the hrgovic fight now, was he?

He will have none of those problems against wardley. Wardley will hit him and probably hurt him, if dubois doesn't get to him before that, but it will be very hard to knock dubois out when he knows he will eventually catch wardley, which he will.