Hrgovic vs Itauma prediction thread.

Itauma stops him mid rounds via cuts

 

Questionable British stoppage between 6 and 9 after a 1 sided beat down without Hrgovic being visibly hurt at any point and being mildly competitive in the opening rounds.

 

If Itauma has a chin he should win, but he will have to do something about that questionable stamina. We've seen the huffing and puffing.

Hrgovic does not have a huge punch, and he himself has the kryptonite in that cut, but Moses has to train for 12.

 

Itauma by KO in 2.

 

Most like outcome is that Itauma wins via a stoppage due to cuts. I doubt highly its an early stoppage.

We will also find out more about Itauam's ability to take a punch, although Hrgovic is not a power puncher. If he was he would be a world champion right now.

 

I wrote a thing about why I think Hrgovic wins:

https://pugilistsjamescassius.substack.com/p/moses-itauma-vs-filip-hrgovic-step

Hrgovic by points, which is dangerous because of the potential of a robbery, but I’ll still probably stick a tenner on the Croatian.

 

Heart says Hrgovic, brain Itauma.

Itauma by TKO stoppage in 6-8 rounds.

 

Points win for Itauma

 

Itauma in the 6th.

 

if they meet now after Usyk dropped belts. Itauma could choose Sanchez instead and fight for the belt.

 

Itauma, middle rounds, TKO on cuts.

 

I do like this fight as a reasonable step up for Itauma. Hrgovic is certainly a tough guy. But, Hrgovic is hardly difficult to connect on. In fact, he is often a walking heavy bag in there. He is also 34. These things eventually catch up to you. Even fighters with granite jaws can eventually start to crumble. (See Joe Joyce). And, Itauma will have the speed and Power advantage. I think he will stop Hrgovic mid-late rounds. But, at least this is a real fight. (Unlike the one for Fat Boy Fury)

 

Hrgovic will be there just to get his big paycheck from Queensberry and to elevate Itauma to the next level.

He will lose by a cruel KO in first 3 rounds so that Itauma will have made a statement and his hype will skyrocket.

 

I'm, or rather, I was, a huge fan of Hrgovic's talent and potential, but I don't see this fight as promising for the Croatian.
Something went wrong with Filip's development, and I'm slowly starting to doubt he'll ever recover.
A lot of lost time, not his fault but the fault of lazy promoters and sticking to the IBF's rules, took its toll. He was also badly outplayed by many fighters, especially Hunter, who shamelessly wasted probably over a year of his career.
This isn't how a super talented guy should develop professionally—sitting on his ass and waiting for opponents, unsuccessfully in most cases, interspersed with fights with complete losers like De Mori.
Because of this, the Croatian rested on his laurels, stopped developing both physically and boxing-wise, which resulted in a loss to Dubois, where he disappointed me severely. I know Dubois fouled like crazy, but Filip should be prepared for such things. If he hadn't underestimated Daniel at this level, he should have crushed him from distance.

Currently, Filip lacks speed, a bit of motor, and strong defense. He also often focuses on "destroying" his opponent instead of boxing. He doesn't use his reach enough, relying solely on left-right action, which often lacks a good twist, and these punches lack the necessary punching power. It's gotten to the point where Filip, who just a few years ago was described by boxers (including Eric Molina and Richard Towers) as hitting harder than Wilder in the heavyweight division, has begun to be considered a "slacker" and a guy closer to Pulev than to the Klitschkos, to whom he was often compared.

But to the point. Considering these aspects, plus the fact that Warren clearly wants to make Itauma a new heavyweight star, Filip faces a significant challenge from the start.

Furthermore, a stylishly powerful puncher with a speed advantage and a nonchalant approach to defense, he could prove to be a stylistic nightmare.
It's also concerning that Filip is cut up in practically every fight, and a premature submission is very possible if he gets a little dizzy.
Filip sometimes starts acting uncharacteristically in the ring, and even though he's actually still in the game, he looks like he's already out of it (those infamous sideways movements, as if he's forgotten where he is). This creates a really strong basis for believing that the most likely scenario is that he'll be submitted at the first opportunity after landing a long series, and that's not hard to come by with him.

I'm rooting for him. I hope he'll come into the ring aggressive, super prepared, and at least test Moses's jaw and his ability to handle pressure when someone is hitting back and landing solid, hard shots. However, I wouldn't bet on him. Right now, this fight is 70-30% in Moses' favor.
In my opinion, Hrgovic shouldn't have taken this fight. He could have waited and seen in Moses's next fights if any hidden weaknesses would show. If Itauma doesn't have one, Filip will get a real kick out of this fight. But at least he'll make a fortune – that's what I've read here. The only positive.

But I wish him the win and I'll keep my fingers crossed for him.