All depends If Kenny can avoid those early dangerous minutes. If he does, and takes Lyle in to the latter rounds, then he's in with a shot.
Just like Norton was kryptonite for the GOAT, big punchers are kryptonite for Norton. Norton belongs considerably ahead of Lyle on the ATG list but as I've said before, my own view of ATG lists is they don't necessarily have to reflect who would win H2H. And this ranking doesn't. Norton would have to elude Lyle for five or six rounds and then dominate the tail end of the fight to have a chance in this one and I don't think he had it in him.
If you favor Lyle over Norton you are admitting he has a glass chin, which he does, so Lyle by early KO
Everything that has been said above. Norton is obviously the better fighter, but styles make fights and Norton does not have the chin to stand up to a massive puncher like Lyle.
Even with his occasionally susceptibility to punchers, I still have to go with Norton here. Just too much skill. The reason Lyle had such a close fight with Foreman is that George fought recklessly and just thought he would steamroll Lyle. That strategy bit him in the ass, but, did give the fans an amazing slugfest. Norton wouldn't fight that way. He would simply outbox Lyle with his superior skill. The same way Quarry did.
Not selling Norton’s chin as granite but the “big punchers” who laid Kenny low so happened to be the biggest punchers not just for that era but for all time - and two of the KOs came well past Norton’s prime. FWIW, though in no condition to continue, I believe Norton beat the counts in both the Foreman and Shavers’ fights but was ruled unfit to continue. Ironically for some, Norton boxed 39 rounds with Ali without ever being placed in serious trouble but it took just one Ali right hand to bring Lyle undone in their one and only match. At the very least, though blessed with elite power,I don’t think Lyle always punched with the same bad intentions as Foreman, Shavers and Cooney. Ron could def. punch but it seems his power was displayed to best effect in a fire fight with reasonable duress put on Lyle. On the precipice of turning pro (I think) Ron attended the camps of both Ali and Frazier. Ron sparred Ali and Ali noted that Ron needed to be more pro active in his offence. At Joe’s camp, Ron didn’t spar Frazier, rather, he sparred Joe’s spar mate Ken Norton. I think Joe had the same impression that Ron needed to be more pro active rather than play second fiddle. At any rate, it seems that Norton went overly hard on the fledging Lyle which Ron took exception to. This allegedly led to animosity held by Lyle who apparently looked forward to eventually fighting Norton in the pro ranks. Norton was the superior boxer but still punched with notable authority within his skill set - would that be enough to ignite and release the beast within Lyle? I dunno. If it doesn’t develop into a reasonable punch up driven by raw aggression, Ron just might unduly subordinate himself within the confines of a pure boxing match which would see him more likely lose, I think. Too bad this fight didn’t come off. I think the key questions could only have been answered in the actual fighting as opposed to paper forecasts.