What is Hrgovics path to victory against Itauma?

Shocks and upsets are shocks and upsets for a reason... But they do happen.

We'll see - Itauma wouldn't be the first prospect to be grossly overhyped and then get beaten by someone not particularly special. This is boxing, not everything makes total sense and not everyone who gets a reputation is worthy of that reputation (if anything, very few deserve the reputations they get!).

Again, I'd expect him to win... But I certainly wouldn't claim to know - especially not whilst refusing to show confidence in that certainty.

 

Hrgović knows exactly what he is at this point. He knows he’s not beating the top dogs at heavyweight and becoming a proper champion. He’s showing up for the Itauma fight to collect that fat Queensberry cheque.

All the noise about how he’s going to break Itauma apart — on socials, at press conferences, all of it — is just theatre to sell the script and make it look convincing.

 

Hrgovic has late round experience against ranked fighters. If the fight gets into the second half I'm more confident in Hrgovics energy and experience than Itaumas. We still don't know anything about his stamina, chin and heart if things get a bit hairy for him.

 

Do you even like boxing?

 

You and I know that, I'm not sure if he does...

Regardless, yes he's a very durable gatekeeper with very limited power and a limited gas tank - but he's still dangerous to anyone who isn't contender level.

And that's precisely the point - Itauma looks great against corpses and low level journeymen (even durable ones like Franklin) but we just don't know if that translates against a live gatekeeper let alone live contenders... Not yet.

 

Adeleye -- who is no feather fist -- landed something like a 15 punch combo on Hrgovic, all landing flush, all thrown with full power, and Hrgovic didn't go down. I don't see how Ituama's single punches or two punch combos are knocking him off his feet.

Mind you, I think Ituama is the real thing, is going to win (probably via British stoppage), and is then going to go on to become undisputed, but I don't think he knocks Hrgovic off his feet.

 

Interesting...

Unless he's very careful with pacing (which he hasn't been in his fights to date), he might struggle to win on the cards - so he's got to stop Hrgovic one way or another, surely?

I agree he's not likely to blast him out early, and even though Itauma hits way harder than Adeleye, Hrgovic chin is well known to be excellent...

I'm not prepared to call Itauma the real thing whilst his chin is unproven, whilst he hasn't fought any non-shot gatekeepers (Hrgovic will be his first) and whilst his stamina has looked questionable... Power and speed are undeniably there, technique looks good (though it gets harder to maintain that with better opponents) - but future undisputed? We need to see more for that, surely?!

 

Good! We're talking about the same thing then. And Hrgovic knows this as well as we do, thus he will show up only for the paycheck.

 

It's overly simplistic to say that Dubois folding against Usyk's jab means he has a weak chin, because obviously Usyk's jab isn't as powerful as Wardley's or Hrgovic's right hand. Dubois' eyes weren't rolling in the back of his head - he took a knee because he mentally folded against Usyk (twice) and couldn't work him out (because he's a simpleton). Dubois' toughness issues are mental more than physical.

All that said, Hrgovic isn't a huge puncher, as he's never stopped anyone of note. Had a chance to show power against Zhang, Joyce, Dubois but never really threatened any of them.

 

I don’t think Dubois got stopped by usyks jab because he couldn’t handle the power of usyks jab…..he simply chose that moment to quit because he was absolutely knackered.

 

Hrgovic's path to victory lies with Abel Sanchez. If Sanchez can get the best out of him and really fire him up, then this is going to be a really solid starting point. He's looked very good technically under Sanchez since the Dubois "loss" and seems to have returned to his underrated fundamentals. Although he hasn't really fought anyone above British/Euro level, he's been able to pace himself much better and become far more natural and comfortable.

In the Adeleye fight, for instance, he was wary of the punch power, despite taking a succession of absolute bombs on the chin and barely flinching. Overall, he boxed and moved well for 10 rounds without getting out of second gear. He walked through Allen, showcased how many levels above him he is, but it was in front of a big crowd in Allen's back yard, which shows there's a version of him now that knows how to move up and down the gears in a big fight when the pressure is on. That was lacking against Dubois, even though he got headbutted into oblivion.

Filip was split between styles for years; I think he wasn't sure of himself as a puncher or as a boxer and was operating in no man's land. That's why the Zhang fight was so bizarre, he tried to blast out the bigger puncher, then tried to outbox him, and it turned into an odd, messy fight. He blasted out De Mori in a round, but then took 12 rounds to take out McKean. He's matured and ironed that out, and knows how to pick the right tools to use depending on who he is fighting.

Moses has Boxercise Ben in his corner, who I am not sold on in the slightest, and although Itauma is genuinely the most gifted 21 year old heavyweight I've ever seen, he is still in an extremely important and formative stage.

Having a trainer like Ben is an enormous red flag, and with Sanchez in the other corner who has been able to bring Hrgovic back to his fundamentals and is levels above Boxercise as a trainer, if Hrgovic can get off the runway and survive an early onslaught, then asserting his jab and upping the volume in the second half of the fight is the path to victory.

What I actually think happens is Itauma unloads on Hrgovic for 4/5 rounds, doesn't really hurt him, but the ref steps in and waves it off before Hrgovic is able to put this plan into action.

He has to be much more defensively savvy than he has been for his entire career, especially in the first 3 rounds, let Itauma unload and tire him out. If Sanchez can engineer this and get him to the mid-to late rounds, this is where this fight gets very interesting.

 

Can you elaborate on your doubts towards davison?

I see his team as a very brainy one which can lead to brilliant tactics and planned knock downs. Like apparently the knockdown of josh taylor vs ramirez or wardleys ko against justis huni.
But he seems to be unable to guide his fighters through a Fight in hairy situations. No firemen speeches or tactical Changes on the fly from him.
Overall he seems okay though, not the worst team to work with, right?

 

You said it yourself, he seems unable to guide his fighters through a fight in hairy situations. He seemed content with sending Wardley out in the 10th round against Dubois when the entire boxing community was screaming at the tele to throw the towel in. Tactically he has got some major calls wrong in big fights, telling Joshua to go for broke against Dubois was another awful call. I don't think Itauma is going to get taken into deep waters by Hrgovic, but if he is, and he has Ben in his corner, then this could be a perfect storm.

 

Hrgovic is a very odd one to watch because it looks like he checks out in the middle of his fights. In round 8 vs Adeleye he just needed to stay behind his jab and 1-2 after the knockdown, but instead he stood right in front of Adeleye as a stationary target and allowed Adeleye to tee off 15+ power shots on his dome...

But it looks like Abel Sanchez has made him take his cardio more seriously, and he's obviously a more experienced coach than Ben. Abel also did a very good job with the cut vs Adeleye, which could play a crucial part vs Itauma.

 

Best analysis I've seen so far, and I think you're 100% correct.

Itauma needs to pace himself, only increasing pressure in bursts when Hrgovic gets lazy with his defence.

Hrgovic would ideally need to frustrate Itauma as much as possible, forcing him to try and push for a stoppage until he gasses and Hrgovic can reverse the momentum in his favour. The main issue with that is that Hrgovic is rubbish defensively and I have a feeling he's going to feel the consequences of that rather quickly.