Fury vs Joshua is OFF

Your understanding of odds determination is flawed.

Bookies price markets at a spread where they make money either way, yes. But opening and pre-fight night odds are an accurate predictor for how a fight will play out. Luckily I’ve done the analysis. During times when I've tracked my boxing betting record, I've found that on roughly 80% of occasions the bookies get it right. If they simply priced markets in the way you describe then this result would be vastly different.

Bookies open odds based on a spread taking into account all context around the fight - the smaller bookies take into account other prices - and then they react to small movements by bots on betting exchanges. It’s only at the back end of fight week when the casuals pile in that you get silly movements in odds which is where matched and trade bettors make their living.

All betting odds are is an implied probability of an outcome occurring, in a boxing context, with 80% accuracy.

In other words, bookies odds are the closest thing we have to an objective measure of risk.

Any view that Tyson Fury has avoided risk in his career is nonsense.

An undefeated Chisora in London was absolutely a risk to take as a 22-year old that had only been pro 2.5 years. There’s been no claims anywhere in this thread that he's the greatest HW of all time.

Your diatribe here around Usyk’s top class CV is irrelevant. He was mentioned nowhere.

The subject here is Fury and as above, he's taken substantial risk on multiple occasions throughout his career

 

It would be interesting to see if the 12 people that agreed with Cyrion's flawed comment above could offer an alternative to what I've just described with regards to betting odds, and what experience they draw upon to make that judgement

 

Got banned and made an alt. Nice.

It really doesn't matter what bookies do or don't. Being an underdog doesn't prove you took on a bunch of tough challenges in your career. It depends on subjective expectation without knowing what the outcome will be. Lots of people (dumb ones) thought Wilder was the greatest thing since sliced bread. He knocks everyone out! He's a killer! He's the hardest puncher in the history of the HW division! Well, so what? He's an F tier boxer and never beat any top tier fighters in his entire career. If Fury was an underdog against him what does that prove? Nothing besides the fact that lots of casuals are idiots.

As far as Delboy goes, styles make fights. We all know this. Delboy is a stubby little brawler who needs a step ladder to hit a guy Fury's size in the chin. That's why he never had any success whatsoever against Fury. It's why Fury was fine fighting him THREE FUGGIN' TIMES. Because he knew it was always going to be an easy night's work.

Again, having a handful of semi-difficult fights over your career doesn't mean ****. The point is that Fury has dodged as much adversity in his career as he possibly could have. Have fun making yet another alt when this one gets banned, you goof.

 

Two pussies. This is why I don't rate Usyk's wins over those two tosspots like his fans do. Neither near top-10 material, H2H or whatever. They're really not. And I won't waste any more words over those two clops.

 

Being an underdog in every fight isn't the key to building a great CV, but it's a key indicator of taking risk. Which is ultimately what this discussion is about. You can't make the leap between Fury's natural aversion to risk causing him to avoid AJ in 2026. The reason is because the evidence from betting markets at the time of each fight disproves it, and you fail to understand the weight of that evidence.

That's the beauty of betting odds. They take into account the context of the fight at the time. You again missed out context this time for Wilder I where Fury was in poor condition and had been back for just 6 months after a 2.5 year drug & alcohol binge which greatly increased the risk of defeat. Just like you missed out the context for the 2011 Chisora fight. Betting odds usually reveal the true context at the time.

That fight was far from an easy night's work. At the time Fury was not the long range boxer he eventually became and was a green brawler that was 22 and only pro for 2.5 years.

It's good that we have some progress here from your original comment:

We've gone from Fury avoiding the best competition throughout his career to now you admitting he has actually taken a bit of risk but that he's dodged as much of it as possible. If you understood the link between betting odds and risk this comment would fall apart too

 

Yeah, no.

Nowhere did I ever claim that Fury avoided ALL legitimate competition.

Fury, for all his many flaws, is no idiot. He knew he needed a belt to be relevant in the division and make the most money possible. So he did decide to take on Wlad. Old Wlad. In an absolute stinker of a fight where both guys should have been forced to return their purses and the fans reimbursed for having to watch that shite. But he did do that. While clearly on PEDs, but I digress.

Of course, what did he do immediately after? Ducks a rematch and then disappears to avoid a drug ban. Makes up a bunch of nonsense about mental health to rehabilitate his image. Then comes back to fight the likes of Seferi and Pianeta. Needs a belt again though! Did he go after AJ for AJ's three belts? Nah. He went after the guy who was getting title defenses against guys ranked somewhere in the hundreds. Who does he fight after his draw with Wilder? Did he go after other guys in the Top 10? Nah. He picked two absolute melts in Schwartz and Wallin. Then after his Wilder adventures what does he do? Is he banging the door down to fight Usyk, become Undisputed, and prove his greatness? Nah. He takes a mandatory against already shot Whyte and then fights Delboy for a THIRD time. Then he fights an MMA guy who was a complete boxing novice. All while claiming Usyk is a nobody, he wants half a billion dollars to fight him, that Usyk should have to take a 70/30 split, etc. and so forth. He ran from Usyk for two damn years. That's totally the actions of a guy who is looking to take on all the best competition, right?

I think we must also look at Fury's early career, too. This dude had TWENTY FOUR FIGHTS before taking on Wlad for the title. Now, that number would be no big deal if this was boxing from past decades when guys were fighting much more often. If this was Mike Tyson crushing multiple dudes a month, ok. But it isn't. This is Fury being essentially just a domestic level fighter where it took him NINE FREAKING YEARS before he ginned up enough confidence *cough*Nandralone*cough* to fight Wlad for the straps.

For comparison here are some of Fury's peers and how long it took them before taking their first title fight:

Usyk - Less than 3

AJ - Less than 3

Dubois - 6 years, but clearly would have gotten there sooner had Joe Joyce not obliterated his eye

Wilder - 6

Joe Parker - 4

Andy Ruiz - 7

Wlad - 3

This giant gypsy ******* was too chicken**** to actually get out there, fight the best, and move his career forward. It took him damn near a decade to finally get away from ducking the likes of David "Glass Jaw" Price and go try and win a title. This is not the resume of a man who believes in himself and is willing to go out there and prove it. It's the resume of a guy who likes easy fights and avoiding the most risk possible. A couple of fights here and there where he basically got backed into a corner because he needed a belt and his career would have just been over otherwise doesn't mean he took on all comers and wanted to fight the best. But hey, you go ahead and keep making inane arguments about how betting odds prove Fury was the Muhammad Ali of the past decade or w/e.

 

Who could've seen this coming

 

The thing you miss in your analysis is the possibility that Fury's problem here is the very specific risk of being chinned / starched by the Bodybuilder Dosser Bum that he has repeatedly denigrated Joshua as being, which I think would be a bitter pill for Fury to take - in terms of risk/reward there is big money and bragging rights / told you so, but the risk here is more humiliation than defeat. Whilst I personally think after AJs last fight the odds are very slim, but I still think there is something in it.

And for the record, I don't think Fury is afraid of Joshua as a boxer - but I do think he's petrified of the idea of losing to him, however unlikely that is to come to pass.

 

Incorrect. Fury didn't fail a PED test for the Wlad fight, it was for the Hammer fight 9 months prior. You either believe in accurate drugs testing or you don't. You cannot on one hand accept a failed test for one fight while simultaneously rejecting a clean test for another fight.

Your response to Fury taking on a huge risk, evidenced by being bookies underdog, in Germany which was notorious for dodgy decisions at the time, against an 11-year undefeated Wlad was that Fury was "backed into a corner." It was in fact Wlad who was backed into a corner as Fury had to face 4 final eliminators to get to the position to force Wlad to take the fight. It was exactly the opposite of what you claim.

Again you expose your poor understanding. Fury's mental health issues have been well documented going back as far as Dec 2011:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2011/nov/05/tyson-fury-interview

Here is an article from late 2016 that paints a clear picture of an individual succumbing to mental health problems around the time of the Wlad II cancellation:
https://www.rollingstone.com/cultur...n-tyson-fury-ive-done-lots-of-cocaine-119571/

It was not simply a retrospective reputational clean up act like you and many others like to portray.

The context for these fights was a fighter returning after 2.5 years out the ring and 10 stone of weight loss. With accurate context, these are fine fights to take.

This is incorrect. Usyk had rematch obligations with Joshua to fulfill in 2022 so Fury couldn't have possibly fought him at that time. The turnaround by the back end of that year was also too quick for Usyk. This resulted in the Chisora defence.

As stated above in comments you clearly have still not taken the time to understand, Fury has taken consistent risks throughout his career. The delay of the Usyk fight, which was only a year not 2 like you claimed, was only ever down to waiting for saudi money which was mutually beneficial for both Fury and Usyk. It's debatable whether the delay actually impacted Fury more as the chickens from the previous drug & alcohol abuse came home to roost as he aged.

Incorrect, it wasn't even 7 years.

That brings him in line with these fighters in your list below:

Dubois - 6 years
Wilder - 6
Andy Ruiz - 7

With regards to AJ, he was 26 when he beat Martin for the IBF strap, a year Fury's junior when he dethroned Wlad. When he fought Wlad in 2017 himself, he was the same age as Fury when he dethroned Wlad.

With regards to Usyk, he was 29 when he won his first world crown. A grand total of 2 years older than Fury when he won his first.

You can't simply look at the years it takes a fighter to win a world crown, you must take into account age. Fury turned pro at 20, several years younger than AJ and Usyk did.

In other words, your comparison above was not only wrong, it has been completely demolished.

Again you demonstrate total ignorance of my evidence based comments above regarding the link between betting odds and risk. Fury has not in any way avoided risk in his pro career.

Again you make up in your own mind an argument that I've never put forward. I have never stated this anywhere in the thread.

 

I did write several times earlier this year
Before the warm ups

I am not convinced that Fury/Joshua
happens this year

Fury I think has had a few times where he has postponed etc. Often before his bigger fights when he is the A side
(I don't feel either is above the other here at this point)
Klitschko 2 fight was delayed I think on a few occasions and then Fury decided he wasn't fighting
The immediate Wilder rematch didn't happen and Fury fought a couple of tune ups
Wilder 3, I think there were some delays but could be wrong
Usyk, he needed a tune up and fought Chisora, then decided against Usyk and fought Ngannou, then the date was changed, then there was another delay as I recall

So not convinced it will happen this year

I think alot could also depend on how Joshua looks ie the time i felt Fury was serious in offering Joshua the fight was when Joshua was coming straight off his 2nd defeat to Usyk, and I seem to recall Fury saying something along the lines of you should be fighting fit and ok after that sparring session with Usyk (which was a tough fight) and giving a short deadline to sign for the fight.

If Joshua doesn't look good, gets wobbled and struggles through a decision, I think then that there may be more chance the fight happens this year (still not convinced), but feel that if Joshua looks powerful and destructive that it may be delayed a bit more.
That is only a thought

Personally I would favour Fury and am a far bigger supporter of Fury than Joshua.
Never been a fan of Joshua but do like to remain balanced and often don't get alot of the criticism as I feel he has been great for British boxing and looked to be involved in alot of big fights

I would pick Fury, I would favour Fury but I am not entirely convinced this fight happens this year and providing neither lose the warm up, would think that if it doesn't happen this year would more likely be due to Fury, not that I think anyone would blame him (or Joshua) if he got a better offer ie like world title chance

 

I'm not a fan of Joshua but he did take on many of the top HWs when became a world champion

When Fury called out Joshua it was for a fight only around 3 months after the 12 round Usyk loss
That seems very short notice for a full recovery and training camp.

Admittedly Joshua and Fury haven't been as active or mixing as much in the top 10 but go back and look at The Ring magazine annual ratings in 2017
Consider Joshua won his first world title in the middle of 2016

2017
Tyson Fury, Champion

1. Anthony Joshua
2. Deontay Wilder
3. Joseph Parker
4. Alexander Povetkin
5. Luis Ortiz
6. Kubrat Pulev
7. Andy Ruiz Jr.
8. Dillian Whyte
9. Dominic Breazeale
10. Jarrell Miller

Fury didn't fight at all in 2016 or 2017, so Joshua wouldn't have been able to get that fight then but consider

Fury, not fighting
Wilder, decided against the fight
Parker, Joshua fought
Povetkin, Joshua fought
Ortiz, decided against the fight
Pulev, Joshua fought
Ruiz, Joshua fought
Whyte, Joshua fought
Breazeale, Joshua fought
Miller, Joshua was due to fight

 

I understand where you're coming from but I don't see it myself. His boisterous trash talking attitude would've disgraced him big time in Britain had he lost to Haye or WK.

For me he's always seemed a guy 100% convinced he's the best in the world and above anyone else. He still to this day thinks he beat Usyk even though he lost legitimately 2x.

Then add in his track record of taking high risk fights against big punchers in the past, I doubt he's looking at a post-car crash AJ who was nearly stopped by Pringle as formidable opposition at all. But I will agree it could still be a factor

 

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Eddie Hearn the vanguard of British boxing.

 

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who cares if it fails at this point idc lol. both guys past prime now anyway