Gambling with Stovepipe

I think Diaz wins the first four rounds on better form, cutting Katsidis up, landing a bit more, but takes heavier shots from Katsidis, gets rocked in the last half of the fourth and Kats goes for the kill in the fifth, Diaz only knows one way, tries to go forward and fight him off, and gets decked and stopped by Kats.


Total of 300 on Kats at +250 (100 here) and +300 (200 here)

30 on KO rnd 5 at over 30 to 1
65 on Kats to win by KO at +450


plus I got Barrios to win, Attah in the upset and the under bet on Kirkland / Cortes


The Attah fight may be already over, all I know is I am DVRing it but the start time was listed earlier than the TV time so it might not be live on telefutura, but I am staying away from fightnews and forums (I just hit new post and didn't check 'em here), but I already posted these bets long ago on my blog and other forums in case anyone thinks I am BSing.


I make tons of bets all the time for the last three years and I win consistently if you want a link to my bettingonboxing blog PM me, they may not want me to post that here.





Straight Wager 08/30/08 15:39 ET
bet 100.00 to win 250.00 Result: Pending
Lightweight Fight - Houston TX
Juan Diaz
Michael Katsidis 09/06/08(22:00 ET)
Michael Katsidis +250
I just made this bet bigger after reviewing both contestants last performances. I am feeling more confident of a Katsidis win.
Straight Wager 09/05/08 21:55 ET
bet 200.00 to win 600.00 Result: Pending
Lightweight Fight - Houston TX
Juan Diaz
Michael Katsidis 09/06/08(22:00 ET)
Michael Katsidis +300



uture Wager 09/04/08 11:02 ET
bet 10.00 to win 340.00 Result: Pending
Diaz/Katsidis - Pick the Rnd (12 Full Rds=Loss)
05 Round Katsidis Wins Fight 09/06/08(22:00 ET)
34 - 1 Future Wager 09/04/08 11:01 ET
bet 15.00 to win 67.50 Result: Pending
Diaz vs Katsidis - Final Result
Katsidis by KO - TKO - DQ 09/06/08(22:00 ET)
9 - 2

bet 20.00 to win 680.00 Result: Pending
Diaz/Katsidis - Pick the Rnd (12 Full Rds=Loss)
05 Round Katsidis Wins Fight 09/06/08(22:00 ET)
34 - 1
Future Wager 09/05/08 21:56 ET
bet 50.00 to win 225.00 Result: Pending
Diaz vs Katsidis - Final Result
Katsidis by KO - TKO - DQ 09/06/08(22:00 ET)

traight Wager 09/05/08 10:16 ET
bet 15.00 to win 105.00 Result: Pending
Super Featherweight Fight - Albuquerque NM
Urbano Antillon
Daniel Attah 09/05/08(20:30 ET)
Daniel Attah +700

Straight

This content is protected

09/05/08 11:30 ET
bet 110.00 to win 51.16 Result: Pending
Kirkland vs Cortes - Light Middleweight Fight - Round Prop
Round Prop
Round Prop 09/05/08(23:05 ET)
Under 5.5 (-215)

 

well it was worth a shot with Antillon missing weight twice and normally fighting at 135. I had Roman over Ouma at 17 - 1 so its nice to play these if you feel you see something. As long as you can win 1 out of every 5 of them you are doing ok.

 

stoppage was a bit quick but likely would have happened in the third, however, Kirkland was getting hit too much, which is important to note when he steps it up vs Angulo or even another lower tiered fighter, I figured he might judging by the Conyers fight, but it was nice to have that covered in the under bet as well (Kirkland losing by KO).

another reason I made this bet larger than I otherwise would have was because Cortes stayed down and let the ref count him out when he fought Angulo, his attempt to get up at 9.75 was suspect

yet another reason was because Kirkland's contracted weight vs Conyers was at 152 and he didn't realize it until late into his training camp, where as this fight was at 156.

So anyways, I am ahead 36.16 for the night. :happy 51.16 win here minus 15 bucks I lost on Attah.

 

Assuming we are dealng with a fixed amount on each fight, win one out of every five bets consistently over a period of bets that are long shots anywhere from 7 to 1 to 20 to 1 or more and a person will make money, potentially a whole lot of money.

I hit Pavlik KO 7 in Pavlik / Taylor 1, that was something like 25 to 1. When you make these kind of longshot bets you are bound to lose the majority of them, but a consistent winner will trust his intuition and pics and keep playing educated guesses on long shots if he sees over a course of many bets, that he is turning a profit.