Pacs only chance is that Oscar comes in weak shape after killing himself to make weight, but can that happen?
@ this time I'm leaning for Pac to win. Roach will have a solid game plan and Pac will follow it. He will stick and move, avoid almost all of DLH's punches, tire DLH down and either win by wide UD or TKO. Hope he doesn't pull a Billy Conn Vs Louis.
I'd say Pac has a 40% chance...he doesnt have to get bigger. He's at his most efficient now at 145-150 come fight time. Utilize the same game plan against the one he used against Diaz. I think Pac will have an easier time hitting Oscar than ....lets say for example JMM( and he did hit JMM quite a bit). If he gets past the first 5 rounds maybe winning one or two, he can pile up the rounds going away.
Pac Road to Victory #1 ( Pac The Bloody Warrior ) 15% Chance of Happening In an exciting fight Pac survives the punishment of DLH's attacks and through strength of heart and will remains vertical and active while scoring more hits on DLH in spite of the punishment he is receiving. Pac Road to Victory #2 ( Pac gets lucky and/or DLH gets careless ) 10% Chance of Happening DLH in a bout of carelessness or overconfidence or bad luck allows Pac to actually hurt him. DLH has a major size and strength advantage over Pac but its not so great that DLH can forego defense and not risk paying the price. Pac Road to Victory #3 ( Road Runner beats the Coyote ) 5% Chance of Happening DLH by combination of age, weight or poor preparation comes into this fight at a disabling speed disadvantage. Pac recognizes early that he has the speed needed to attack first and keep DLH from scoring enough hits to take him down. DLH wins - 70% Chance of Happening Let's face it. DLH isn't likely to have agreed to this fight if he wasn't fairly confident he would win. And all things considered he's probably right. Pac is at an enormous disadvantage.