~ FiNAL VOTE ~ Hopkins v. Pavlik ~ Vote here if you've changed your mind ~

Some things to bear in mind:

1. If this fight is close, Pavlik will get the decision. No point taking away from his shine when he's unbeaten and the next big American star by giving the win to an old man who is on his last legs in the business. Pavlik v. Taylor 2 was a close fight, some people even thought Taylor won it, and the scores were: 116-112, 117-111, 115-113. 117-111???

2. Judges will score Pavlik's aggressiveness and activity very generously, even if it's not that effective, just like they did in the Taylor 2 fight. Hopkins, even if he is more effective, will be the counterpuncher, and he won't get many scores for that.

3. The ref will not let Hopkins get away with anything too ugly against the golden boy Pavlik. This will give Kelly an advantage.

.......

I am very uncertain about this fight. If the fight was fairly reffed and judged, I'd say Hopkins would win a close decision.

I think there's about a 5% chance Hopkins gets KOed by Pavlik. Hopkins is much too smart defensively and much too good a survivor to get KOed. His chin is much too good too. If Pavlik wins a stoppage, it will be in the late rounds, due to attrition, with the ref "saving" Hopkins a bit too readily, IMO.

I think there's a 10% chance of Hopkins stopping Kelly. Kelly's chin is not bad, but Hopkins will tag him as he comes in to fight, playing right into Hopkins' hands He will be easier to hit than Calzaghe, who came from all sorts of angles, had great defence and footwork and kept moving those hands in your face at the same time. Kelly comes forward in a straight line. His defence isn't great either. I can easily see Hopkins KDing Kelly even as much as 3 times, but I think he doesn't have enough to stop him at this stage.

I think this fight will go to the scorecards. Pavlik will be active and aggressive and that will sit nicely with the judges. Hopkins will spin him, tag him, hustle him on the inside. It will be a very, very difficult fight for Kelly - much harder than he expects. He will keep missing Hopkins with his jab and his right hand and he will become frustrated. Hopkins will take advantage of that, trying to hurt him/mess him up. BUT...Hopkins is old and he cannot keep it up for a long time. Still, he won't have someone with Calzaghe's workrate and movement to deal with, so the fact that he's old and inactive won't mean as much against Kelly. Not least, the more aggressive and positive Kelly is, the greater the chance that Hopkins will score a KD.

My prediction is that Hopkins will make it at least a very close fight, if he won't actually win it. I expect he'll KD Pavlik at least once too. I expect Pavlik to be in real deep waters against Hopkins and not be as effective with hit style as he might have hoped, against Hopkins. Still, I expect the judges to give Pavlik the win, either by 1-2 rounds, or much wider, if Hopkins doesn't KD him, or even by split decision if Hopkins does really well. Properly scored and reffed, I think this fight would go to Hopkins by 2 rounds. My pick is Kelly by 2 rounds, though.

I'd be delighted if Kelly won fair and square. I am going to cheer for Kelly and wish him all the best. He's good for boxing and deserves a lot of credit for taking on such a hard fight, in which he will not look good.

:good