2 thoughts after re-watching the Jones-Calzaghe fight

yes, he is even more shot.

 

Paul: Good, constructive post. I agree with some of it and disagree with other bits, but all in all I believe that Calzaghe is a 60/40 favorite over Dawson in Wales.

Now, a few points:

1) I strongly disagree about Jones. He no longer has his legs, and he hasn't won a meaningful fight since 2003. In the meantime, he was starched by both Tarver and Johnson. He should have retired for certain after that. He may be able to defeat lesser lights among the contenders, but even untested fighters like Dirrell and Ward would best him now, IMO.

2) In pondering a potential Calzaghe/Dawson matchup, I think the first point to consider is that neither man has faced anyone like the other. You can find elements of such, but both would be in foreign territory (literally, for Dawson).

3) It's true that Calzaghe boasts a superior workrate and darts in and out beautifully. No one has been able to dictate space against Calzaghe, at least not the refined version we see now. And his swarming punches may trouble Dawson the same way Johnson's swarming punches did.

4) However, Calzaghe never has fought anyone with the offensive capabilities of Dawson. Dawson can punch with Calzaghe for speed, and he hits significantly harder than Calzaghe at 175. No, he wasn't able to stop anyone in his major fights, but no one KOs Tarver, Johnson or Adamek. Even if Dawson can't stop Calzaghe, it's possible that his punches would be more meaningful in the eyes of the judges than Calzaghe's.

5) The jab. Of Calzaghe's biggest wins, only Kessler had a good jab. And it worked early, which forced Joe into Plan B. What was plan B? Backing off and using angles while charging in and out -- again, establishing his preferred space. Dawson's jab keeps improving and is a sizzler, breaking through Tarver's high guard regularly. He also has a three-inch reach advantage over Calzaghe.

6) So, how does Calzaghe avoid the Kessler problem with Dawson's speedy jab? By backing off and charging in at angles, smothering Dawson and overwhelming him with punches. This was the strategy, after all, that Johnson employed well from time to time (Johnson coming forward only, whereas Joe is more tactically aggressive). And you've pointed out how well Calzaghe varies his offense, as well as his tremendous footwork.

7) On the other hand, Calzaghe makes a great number of defensive mistakes. Some of this is reckless dropping of hands, but more imporantly he frequently squares up and is out of position. Thing is, though, he hasn't fought anyone who has been able to exploit this. Lacy and Kessler are too slow and one-dimensional, while Jones and Hopkins (who did time Calzaghe well, he just couldn't keep the pace) are too old.

8) If you're Dawson, then, you have to catch Calzaghe with jabs on the outside, then try to become the first fighter who can catch him on the way out. He's faster than those other guys and able to offer angles of his own, so countering opportunities should exist for him.

9) In large part, I think Dawson's ability or inability to pivot would be crucial. Calzaghe is going to rush him, forward and laterally, and Chad must be able to play at a wide field just as Calzaghe does. It's a daunting task. There's evidence on both sides as to an answer. Against Johnson, Chad too frequently stood his ground and chose to trade.

9) When Dawson moved and boxed, he was able to avoid Johnson's swarming. But he made terrible defensive mistakes himself and got tagged. He also could not dent the iron-chinned Johnson with his best shots. No shame there. Calzaghe is a more skilled and mobile operator than Johnson, to be sure, but he doesn't have Johnson's power (which isn't great either) or chin.

10) I think physical strength is in Dawson's favor and continues to improve as he fills out. Chad used his shoulders and elbows very well against Tarver -- drawing warnings from Jay Nady in the process -- and was able to toss away a large LHW. Calzaghe isn't as massive as the bull Johnson, and Glen's strength was a major bother to Chad in their fight. He struggled to hold his ground.

11) Calzaghe has been dropped in his past two fights by punches he didn't see coming. He wasn't so much hurt as he was unsure of the direction from which he'd be attacked. He was hurt by a Kessler uppercut in the 12th round, another punch he didn't see. I can't imagine Dawson's power would bother Joe per se, but it's quite possible that Chad would land some very fast and crisp shots that resulted in KDs simply due to Joe's balance issues (squaring up, moving straight back, etc.).

In short, Calzaghe will test Dawson in ways we know Dawson can be bothered, and Dawson may test Calzaghe in ways that he never has been bothered. That tends to lend more support toward Calzaghe, but I think you may undercut Chad's chances.

Look forward to the rebuttal. :good

 

Totally disagree. Roy is shot. He couldn't let his hands go. Joe was toying with him all night. He stuck his face out a couple of times and Roy did nothing. Roy could of been a lot more aggressive. This is a guy who relies on his reflexes. He can't any more because he is shot.

 

Roy is fine. Calzaghe just fought a great fight. I would like to see Roy pick up a couple wins and then get the rematch in Wales.

 

roys handspeed is still good, but his footwork and stamina is simply put, that of a shot fighter..

seriously.. no one COULD and no one WOULD, stay in the pocket with hands down against roy, if he had a something left in the tank..

the fight had even lesser meaning then pac-dlh..

 

If you say his eye affected his performance doesnt that mean Joe gets the credit for that...he did give him the cut after all and destroy his confidence and gameplan...he did throw so many punches that Jones couldnt throw any of this...he did move in an out of range meaning Jones couldnt look flashy and effective...any way you look at it Joe was the reason Jones looked ordinary,not RJJ himself.

 

Jones fought a decent fight.

 

Just totally wrong on all 3 points there.

And people, here is food for thought -- that massive uppercut Jones caught Calzaghe with, the one that was a slo-mo highlight. Wouldn't that have KO'd most LHW out there and won Jones the fight? Could Chad Dawson have taken that?

Jones is definately shot compared to what he once was, because people built him up to be 'superman' and untouchable. But I think that Jones still has something left, and he could beat quite a few out there, just not p4p best guys.

I want Jones-Hopkins II.

 

Hopkins would knock him out. We need Bernard/Calzaghe II. First fight was very close and merits a rematch after both their performances.

 

I think Roy didnt like the pace and pressure,and definately the cut....But also Roy throughout his career never had to dig down and get dirty because he was always the faster one and got away with so much because of his speed.Now in retrospect of watching the fight because of the way he was dominated i think if it were prime for prime its a pickem fight ........ALso note that after the 1st round he kind of just stood there bewildered at knocking down Joe and then Joe getting up and attacking him.....He never had to deal with that before......Grant it he is slower and he is older but so is Joe.....Sylistically it would have been a great fight..... Makes you wonder why Roy didnt fight him years ago......

 

It would be boring as hell, it would not be a money-spinner, even in the UK. I don't see Hopkins doing anything differently in a rematch that could win him the fight.

I think that since Hopkins domination of Pavlik, people are assuming that a 'revitalised' B-Hop could beat Joe. I'm sorry but if Hopkins comes up with a different gameplan then Joe will adapt and survive. If Hopkins ups his workrate then I think he would be too open and could not keep up with Joe. Joe would in a wider UD. Bear in mind that Joe would be even more wary of the right hand from Hopkins.

And for people who are thinking "well, he wasn't wary for Jone's right hand". He was caught full in the face with Jone's forearm, which must have felt like a baseball bat.

 

excellent analysis here. look at the first half of the first jones-griffen fight where griffen had success backing up roy and applying pressure...calzaghe would be tough for any version of roy.

 

He dominated Pavlik and didn't KO him. What makes you think he could KO Calzaghe, who has been down but never in trouble and never even remotely closed to stopped?