I think Johnson might spring the upset if he has anything left. Dawson isn't that good and he doesn't take a particularly good punch.
Dawson by close but clear UD outclasses him early and the fight gets closer by the mid-to-late rounds
Only a matter of time before he gets completely exposed. If Johnson has anything left, he might be the one to do it.
Dawson by wide UD. He'll get past old man Johnson and finally start taking on Pascal and the Clouds of the world.