Pavlik would beat Mugabi easier than Haglar did. Under todays weigh in rules the size difference between Pavlik and Mugabi would be enormous.
I take Pavlik. Technically limited brawlers are perfect opponents for Pavlik, who knows how to use his height and reach well unless an opponent is really slick.
Mugabi couldn't handle Pavlik's jab. I wouldn't say Hagler was shot when they fought, but definitely he was declined. Boo makes a good point about the weigh-in rules. Mugabi was all of 5-9. I would like to have seen Mugabi and Julian Jackson at 154.
I never thought Hagler was shot but more like rusty and uninspired. The last fight Marvin was up for was Hearns the fight before Mugabi, and he seemed almost to put his all into that fight body and soul, and after it he could never go to that level again it seemed. The Hearns fight got him the Pizza Hut commercial and diet Coke and that is what he looked for all this career. So after that I think he was unmotivated. After Tommy knocked out Roldan for the WBC middleweight title in 1987, there was a rumor that Hagler/Hearns 2 would be in the June of 1988. It never happened and Hearns had to settle for a defense against Iran Barkley. But for Mugabi, I do believe that an in shape Hagler would have stopped Mugabi in round 5 in a more onesided fight, sort of like the Sibson fight. But Marvin had his nose broken in sparring which postponed the fights which are on my avatar from November of 1985 to March 10, 1986.