Jermain's latest "Bad Decision" - an immediate Pavlik rematch - could ruin his career

Ok, I want to make sure this point is 100% crystal clear:

Jermain Taylor will never, ever beat Kelly Pavlik in the professional ranks.

Their first fight is as competitive as Taylor will ever be with Kelly Pavlik. Every time these two fighters meet in the pros, Pavlik will win either by KO or TKO. No decisions, just knockouts.

It doesn't matter who's more 'skilled,' who's faster, who is more athletic, or anything else. This isn't the NFL combine, it's a prizefight.

And in that arena, Pavlik will always prevail against Taylor, head-to-head.

Why do I say this? Let's take a look at the 2 main reasons:

1. Kelly Pavlik -- as many times as he fights Taylor in the future -- will never again make the mistake of dropping his hands in an attempt to 'clown' Jermain Taylor.

If Pavlik doen't do this hot-dog act, he's never hurt and never has to get off of the deck. But for this tactical blunder, Taylor could not, and did not, hurt Pavlik. Pavlik does not -- and has no reason to -- fear Taylor's power. Unless Pavlik allows himself to be struck 3 times with his hands down again, he will never be in trouble against Taylor in any future rounds the two fight, barring a miracle by Taylor.

The Taylor fans, understandably, want to point to round 2 as some incredibly meaningful moment. And it was. But not in the way they would hope.

What round 2 showed was that even with Pavlik stunned, Taylor could not (and will not in the future) put Pavlik away. Similar to Wlad Klitschko surviving the rabbit-punching of Sam Peter, such an encounter will only serve to boost Pavlik's confidence to handle Taylor's power. And Taylor will, relatedly, know that he does not have the power or ability to put Pavlik away, even if he ever is struck by lightning again and is able to stun Pavlik. Advantage: Pavlik.

What's the most odd about this first point is that it would seem Taylor and his team have come to the opposite conclusion. That is, something along the lines of "Well, JT hurt Pavlik but couldn't finish him last time. So, next time, he'll be able to hurt him AND finish him."

Not on your life.

Mark my words -- Jermain Taylor will never again have Kelly Pavlik in serious trouble in a fight between the two men. Round two will forever haunt Taylor as the 'round that got away.' Except it didn't get away. Pavlik 'gave' the opportunity to Taylor by dropping his hands, and Kelly will never make that mistake again.


2. Jermain Taylor always - ALWAYS - tires in fights; since he cannot stop Pavlik, he will always be put in a position to gas out in a fight with the middleweight champ. When this happens, Taylor will be KO'd/TKO'd by Pavlik. Take that to the bank.

I wrote about just this phenomenon before the first Pavlik-Taylor fight, and it is one of the main reasons I picked Pavlik to win by KO/TKO over Taylor. My thoughts were correct,and if anything, I am even more confident going forward that any future meetings between these two men will play out the same way -- Taylor gets on his bike and racks up points (or 'supposed' points, to biased judges), Taylor begins to tire, Taylor gets taken out.

The only difference I can see in future fights is that, as mentioned previously, Taylor will never again put Pavlik on the deck because Pavlik won't give him the opportunity to. As we have seen in the case of De La Hoya, some fighters do not seem to have the capacity to build up good cardio to last them throughout a fight. Jermain Taylor is such a fighter, and I don't see that changing.

Jermain Taylor cannot knock Pavlik out. As the fight continues, Taylor will wear down. When he does, Pavlik will "catch and dispatch" him.
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Ok, so if Taylor is incapable of defeating Pavlik in the professional ranks, why on earth is he not only rematching him but apparently doing so without any "confidence-rebuilding" fights?

Again, two reasons come to mind:

1. JT really -- yes, honestly, despite all rational evidence to the contrary -- believes he had a chance to take Pavlik out in the 2nd round, and apparently also believes that chance would have existed had Pavlik not dropped his hands and let JT hit him with three 'free' shots.

This thought process is probably best described as 'buying the hype.' Jermain has never been utterly destroyed as he was against Pavlik. Heck, he had never even been down, let alone crushed to the point of the ref halting the count at '2' to stop a contest in which he had been knocked out.

We all heard the interview with JT after the fight in which he said he "can't believe" he lost. It would appear that he has still not come to grips with the reality of what happened, and is apparently holding onto the hope that, in a rematch, he will a) once again be able to hurt Pavlik before JT himself tires, and that b) this time he will be able to knock him out.

Neither a) nor b) is rational. Pavlik cannot be expected to drop his hands again for 3 'free' shots. And if Taylor was not able to finish Pavlik after having 3 free shots, what makes him think, logically, he could stop Pavlik when he does not have the help of Pavlik in delivering his punches?

Simply put, JT is in denial. His coping mechanisms appear to have shielded him from the reality of what happened in the encounter with Pavlik. If and when he does (immediately) rematch Pavlik, there will be hell to pay for this flawed thinking by Taylor.

2. Taylor is likely blaming trainer Manny Steward for his loss.

Most know of the rift between the HOF trainer and his pupil, Taylor. And when Taylor was knocked out by Pavlik, many of Jermain's "Yes men" soon began the "blame Manny" procession.

Manny Steward is not a perfect trainer. Nobody is. But Taylor didn't even try to listen to Steward's instructions in many of his fights. Many have seen Taylor nonchalantly listening to Steward's guidance only to proceed to approach the next round however he, JT, felt he wanted to. And why not, right? That approach had always worked, or at least it had until Taylor drew with Winky Wright. But even in that fight, Taylor didn't suffer a loss on the cards. When you succeed, you have no reason to change your methods. Or at least that's what you can tell yourself.

That all changed when Pavlik took his "0," his belts, and his 'never knocked down or out' status away from him.

And so someone had to be held to blame. And the strategy had to be rethought.

Unfortunately for Jermain Taylor, it appears as though his scapegoat and his evaluation of the Pavlik fight are both in error. Steward tried to help Taylor, but Jermain refused to listen. If Manny is let go, what trainer of greater stature can be brought in that Taylor will actually listen to? Who can teach him more than Manny Steward?

And if Jermain Taylor believes that he will have the same early opportunity to knock out Kelly Pavlik he had in their first encounter, he is, likewise, mistaken. But for the dropped hands, Taylor never seriously hurt Pavlik, and is not likely to do so again. Pavlik will almost certainly keep his hands up in the proper defensive position in any rematch with Taylor.
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So now I come back to the title of the article, the aspect of Taylor potentially ruining his career. Why, you may ask, do I make that speculation?

This past weekend was UFC 77. The main event of that fight card was a rematch between former middleweight champion Rich "Ace" Franklin and the winner of the first encounter, Anderson "Spider" Silva.

Silva dominated Franklin in the first match-up, and instead of Franklin changing his approach to Silva fundamentally, he merely attempted to use the same tactics and execute them more effectively.

Result?

Anderson Silva by big KO in the 2nd round.

And now Franklin -- only two fights removed from being the dominant middleweight in UFC -- is at a career crossroads.

If Jermain Taylor pins his loss on Manny Steward and his inability to 'close the deal' in the 2nd round, it says here that he is walking into the same trap which Rich Franklin stepped into this past weekend. Not only will Taylor be defeated, he could be completely dominated.

Such a dramatic loss immediately following his first stunning TKO loss to Pavlik could permanently wreck Taylor's psyche as a legitimate contender and champion.

As I said, I don't think Taylor will ever defeat Pavlik in the professional ranks. It is a terrible match-up for him, and Pavlik is the superior fighter. That said, I could see Taylor lasting longer in the rematch if he is more dedicated to staying on his bicycle and conserving his energy, unlike what he did in the first fight.

However, I still believe that Pavlik will/would eventually walk-down Taylor and KO/TKO him. I doubt it will/would last more than 10 rounds, maybe 11. And this is if -- if -- Taylor is realistic about why he lost the first fight and is completely dedicated to his training and skill refinement between now and the rematch.

If Taylor fails on either accurately assessing the first fight or faltering in his training, the rematch could end even sooner than the first fight.

Either way, I don't see Taylor ever defeating Pavlik. Never. Not in the pros.

The question in my mind is: Will Taylor be intelligent and mature enough to approach a Pavlik rematch with the proper frame of mind so that he gives himself the best chance to be competitive and thus retain his self-confidence after what I feel will/would be another KO/TKO defeat to champion Pavlik?

The answer to that question could be critical in determing whether Taylor will continue to have a meaningful career after the Pavlik rematch or whether he will have been 'ruined' by Pavlik much as Calzaghe ruined Lacy, Trinidad ruined Reid, and Chavez ruined Taylor.

We'll just have to stay tuned to find out.

 

Because, as I said, he's 1) taking it immediately, without having the chance to regain his confidence after the first (brutal) KO/TKO loss of his career and 2) he seems to be approaching it from the exact wrong perspective. I.e., next time all he needs to do is 'close the show' when he hurts Pavlik.

There is no 'next time' of Pavlik dropping his hands to let Jermain land 3 free shots.

If Taylor thinks he can just immediately rematch a guy who just destroyed him, he's nuts. This is not Lewis-McCall. This is how you ruin a guy's confidence, permanently.

 

Zak -- Thanks, man!

Jetski -- Yes, I wrote it all.

Pavlik is WAY too smart to ever pull that 'hot dog' move again. If he doesn't do that, he never goes down. Taylor never came close to hurting him again, and I can't see him doing so in the future.

As I said, it's like if Peter and Wlad fight again: Now Wlad knows he can handle Peter's power, so his confidence is higher. Pavlik will have respect, but ZERO fear of Taylor's punch. He will walk him down, same as he did last time.

If this rematch goes down, I am 100% putting money down on it, and I don't bet sports. But this is an absolute, mortal lock. There is no way Pavlik loses to Taylor unless he either blows out a knee or something during the fight.