froch vs ward, outcome?

Ward would win, but not easily. Nobody beats Froch easily in that division.
But I can see Ward following the same blueprint as Dirrell against Froch, only not so negative. Technically, Dirrell could've taken that belt - he just screwed it up by making himself look like a runner in a title fight. A shame, really - he should and could have won.
Ward won't look negative at all, although he'd probably stick and move a lot. He's not stupid enough to try and outslug Carl, who will definitely have Andre backing up at times.

Ward by UD, but no shutout.