Understanding Bob Arum's Strategy on Pac Rematch vs Cotto/Marg II Winner

I posted this in another thread but wanted to make a separate thread on the subject and add a few thoughts to that original post.

Top Rank's Bob Arum just brought up that he is considering having the Manny Pacquiao/Shane Mosley winner (that fight seems a done deal at this point) fight the winner of a potential Cotto/Margarito II fight.

At first glance, this idea makes no sense whatsoever. But I thought about it a bit and then made this post on the subject:

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Economically, this makes sense. And as The Mayweather Crew used to say, if it makes dollars it makes sense.

Cotto is a very nice draw. He's not fully "rehabilitated" from his loss to Pacquiao, but he's getting there. And this isn't a perfect world, so Cotto might not have the 2-3 more fights that would be ideal to get his name fully back to where you would like it to be for a Pacquiao rematch.

I think it's fairly clear here that, for Arum, the ideal outcome is that Cotto beats Margarito. That way you have two important "stepping stones" accomplished in Cotto's comeback: Another world title won (vs Foreman) and one of his only losses avenged (Margarito).

Pacquiao-Cotto II is then sold as a "revenge" fight for Cotto, which would probably make it relatively appealing/viable to the Puerto Rican consumers. Can Cotto take care of "unfinished business" by defeating the only man he has faced (Pac) whom he has never beaten?

In the meantime, of course, The Best Pound For Pound Fighter and Congressman In The World is only becoming more famous and admired. Hopefully, in Team Pac's view, he again takes care of a former Mayweather fore in more decisive fashion than Floyd did, which will just increase Pac's aura and box office appeal.

The first Pac-Cotto fight did 1.25M PPV buys. If the above scenarios play out, then Pac-Cotto II -- even with the negativity of Cotto's first loss to Pac -- should do at least 1M PPV, I would think. It could do even more.

From a business perspective, this is genius. Don King said recently that Arum was schooling Golden Boy/Mayweather in handling the public relations and business end of things, and King's absolutely correct: Arum is clowning these guys. Mayweather has been reduced to releasing photos of him on a yacht to try to even stay relevant. That's a huge fall from the acclaim PBF was getting after the Mosley win.

The problem for Golden Boy and Mayweather is this: They have no one to blame but themselves. They blew this, totally. And specifically Mayweather blew it. He had the stage in the past, was the top dog, but he gave that up when he avoided two Pacquiao potential fights. Doesn't matter whose fault it is, Mayweather gave Pac and Arum an opening and gambled he (PBF) would be able to keep his leverage but he gambled wrong, and now he's not only looking like a coward, he's lost the top spot for as long as Pac is fighting or at least as long as Pac is fighting and Mayweather and Pacquiao dont fight each other.

A further, and very real, problem for Mayweather is that now that Arum and Pac have the stage, there is a very good chance they wont even give Mayweather the chance to regain it. You know what that would mean: They wont give Mayweather a fight. And if I were them (Arum, Pac), I wouldn't give Mayweather the fight, either. Floyd thought he had you, now you have him; why give that up?

As a fan, I would like to see Pac fight Berto. As a businessman, that fight would not be a good move. No one cares about Berto, or even knows him. I would also like to see the Mayweather fight as a fan, but I dont think that fight will ever happen.

Arum is a shrewd dude. Pac doesn't care. His legacy is totally secure now, and whatever he does from this point on is basically gravy. He wants to maximize his money and fight exciting fights. He feels like he's earned that, and I can't really disagree with him. The guy's been fighting as a pro since, what, he was like 16 years old. He's about to be 32 years old. He's set for life and has a new political and marketing career booming. I'm sure the passion for the sport is waning now.

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Now, what I didn't add in that post was that all the fighters involved -- save Mosley -- are Top Rank guys. That means, of course, that Arum gets a cut on either side with Pac, Margo, and Cotto. More financial incentive and business smarts (though not necessarily fan-friendliness) from Arum.

What Arum surely wants is for Pacquiao and Cotto to win and have Pacquiao-Cotto II. This is the most lucrative All-Top Rank fight that can be made for Pacquiao at this time (provided Pac and Cotto win the above proposed fights), and it also keeps Mayweather on the outside looking in as Floyd deals with legal issues and starts to age.

The most interesting part of this whole equation is Margo-Cotto II. Margo won't roll over for anyone, and no one can flat-out say that what happened in their first fight won't happen again. So, that's a roll of the dice by Arum. But it's also a lucrative risk for all parties involved.

What Arum seems to be doing now is what King used to do with John Ruiz and what David Haye is trying to do by avoiding the Klitschkos: Build your fighter up (get Ruiz and Haye a belt, no matter how worthy or unworthy they are of the belt) and then just keep him in fights with guys you want so as to maximize yours and his money and build him as a draw. All without putting him in fights that he might lose so that he can keep his drawing power.

This tactic has been going on since as long as boxing was around. It's not new. The difference with Pac versus, say, Ruiz and Haye is that there is hardly anyone who is likely to be able to actually challenge Pacquiao at this time (at least near his weight class; Martinez is much larger) save Mayweather (apologies to JMM, but he is 37 and not getting any younger or bigger). So, it's not so much a "crime" against the fans to make whatever fights you want with him. Particularly given the history of the negotiations with Mayweather (and because Arum very likely wants to freeze Mayweather out now).

There were at least several guys who could have, or could now, seriously challenge or defeat Ruiz or Haye. That's not the case with Pacquiao, and what is most important to Arum is that the public doesn't think there are any guys (except PBF) who might be able to beat him. All the easier to sell PPV's against whomever you want Pac to fight. You're not selling competition, necessarily, you're selling "The Phenom" Manny Pacquiao.

Sorry to be so long, but I wanted to try to help people understand what's going on here, what the strategy and tactics almost certainly are in this situation.

 

Anyone who actually wants to understand or affect what is likely to happen in an economically-driven situation. Prizefighting is an economically-driven situation, almost always.

This isn't FantasyLand; we're not sitting here making "dream matchups" that we dont have the power to get signed.

The post is written to help people get a handle on what is likely to happen and why. If we want to directly affect how things get done, we'll probably have to become promoters.

You can't change a system unless you understand it. And whining about it isn't the same as changing it.

 

Fair enough.

Some don't understand it, though, and that's why I wrote it.

I'm not saying that what Arum looks like he's going to do here is right, I'm just trying to lay out what seems to be going on.

 

He may be, but I hated the way that King helped destroy Tyson.