As great as he is, Floyd loses to Paul Williams

First, I got back on track by predicting Mayweather TKO 10 (on cuts, but hey), and I absolutely love the way he stood up to the physical challenge with cool and grace, and ultimately devastation.

Along with that, I don't think Paul Williams has any chance in hell of enjoying Floyd's overall success as a fighter. His dangling chin is going to get him stopped sooner than later.

Having established all that, however, I think Paul is a horrible matchup for Floyd and that he'd outwork him for a clear decision win.

Williams has the long arms, workrate, chin and speed to jab at Floyd all night at range, nullifying Floyd's inside counters. He could win the fight practically with the jab alone, and Floyd's one-punch-at-a-time style would work against him in the worst way against the hustling Williams.

Now, Williams does give up his height (cue up Teddy Atlas) by falling into his opponents and leaving himself open, but Floyd simply doesn't throw enough punches to keep pace. Even if Paul lands a low percentage, he makes enough contact to keep Floyd on the defensive and to land the higher number of total connects.

Williams UD Mayweather, unless Williams gets his chin -- and confidence -- cracked first.

 

I don't doubt Floyd would try, but against a huge, (un)natural WW like Williams, he'd be putting himself in harm's way. Floyd depends largely on his timing and his ability not to get hit, and you can't time a fighter like Williams. He's too awkward and throws punches continuously from unorthodox angles.

Just look at how even a volume puncher like Margarito was befuddled. And even after he figured Williams out -- the way to beat him is to walk through his punches and engage him in a firefight -- he didn't have enough gas left in the tank to fight a competitive 12th round.

Williams is a mutant in terms of workrate and size at that division, and Floyd would be well-served to stay far, far away.

I don't think it will be an issue, because Williams has very little chance of staying upright against Cotto's body attack. That's his matchup problem.

 

Playing devil's advocate, that's exactly what people said about Hatton going into last night. "He'll find a way." Despite the physical disadvantages, which were numerous. Same thing here. Floyd is giving up a lot fighting a guy like Williams.

I wonder how effective Paul would be at 160. Not sure he has enough pop there, and the size advantage he enjoys now would be reduced. I don't think he wants to volume punch with Pavlik.