Klitschko - Haye betting odds only 2 to 1

The odds change nearer the time of the match in most sports as the bookies raise the limits of what you can bet. The big players and syndicates then bet 50K plus and this moves the line. I d guess this is the case in boxing unless somone knows different

 

I dont understand what you have wrote. Simply, I d say that Wlad @ 1.61 means that he has to win 62% of the time for that bet to break even. If you think the probabillity of the win is higher you have value. Personally Id make it Wlad 68% Haye28% draw4% (without vig) So I see a 5-6% edge on betting on Wlad, which is more than enough to make the bet

 

What happened to posting odds as good old 2 to 1 or 2.5 to 1 or 10 to 1 etc. so I'd know what they hell they were talking about? Or do the bookies do this on purpose to try to disguise the fact that their spread is so big that you can hardly win and they can't lose?

 

Yeah, that's why I said those radical just before fight time odds changes are the ones that gotta make you nervous. Hey, if you're going to go through all the trouble of fixing a boxing match you're not going to want to bet $5 on it.

I'm not saying this one is going to be fixed. I've never seen the slightest evidence that the great Klitschko brothers have had anything to do with the seamier side of boxing. Just what makes me slightly nervous is that I think the odds are too good for Haye, drunken Engishmen notwithstanding - and there'd be very big money involved in a "revenge fight showdown with big brother Vitali", and Haye's handlers have already managed to manipulate him into a so-called championship, apparently with the full cooperation of Valuev's team, plus they've been influential enough to get the crooked Harrison pretend-fight investigation quashed.

I just don't want to see the odds even up or even go in favor of Haye right before fight time. That would definitely make me suspicious.

 

I wasnt talking about a fix. The line will move if there are big bets from individuals/ syndicates who see value in either fighters price.
If the big hitters think theres value in Wlad @1.61 that number will get hit untill it narrows, and the sharps will stop when they dont think there is value in it anymore

 

Fixes too. And why would a "syndicate", or anyone with big money, want to give it a to a bookie with their ridiculous odds spread - unless they felt that they had an advantage, that they knew something that the suckers don't?

 

Your talking about advantage bettors, so no they dont bet without an edge. But that edge doesn t have to come from a fix, bookies make mistakes all the time.
You pays your money and makes your choice with regard to books. The vig at 5 Dimes, pinnacle, sbo etc is as low as 2-3%

 

If 10 bookies are offering Wlad anywhere from 1.45 to 1.62, someones got to be wrong and someones got to be right. Or more wrong or more right, see?
Thats the advantage

 

But, boss, you're talking about shopping around for tiny odds spread differences - and every single bookie has the odds fixed in their own favor so they make a big profit no matter what happens. Now if I'm a "syndicate", or a smart guy with big money, I wouldn't be messing about with bookies unless I had some inside info that gave me a serious advantage, not just a couple of percentage points that raised my chances from winning from very unlikely to slightly less unlikely.

I just looked at the odds spread for this fight at this place

bmaker.ag/live-lines/boxing

They are giving - the best I can decipher this arcane odds notation system - 1 to 2 odds if you bet on WK, but they are, of course, not giving 2 - 1 odds if you bet on DH, but only 1.7 to 1. That's a pretty big spread, 15% (I think it is) skimmed right off the top. Casinos and race tracks, and probably a lot of other bookies, skim off an even much larger amount than that.

Example of a suspicious fight where the odds changed radically right before fight time: Golota-Grant.

 

They should, unless there is some kind of ****** business afoot. That was the premise of this thread.

 

I suppose we beg to differ on that then.
As I said 5 dimes,pinni etc overround to 102-103%. You ve got to understand, edges on sports betting are small. But that doesnt mean they re not there.
You dont seriously believe that all pro gamblers are in on fixes and conspiracies and that is how they gain an edge , do you?